BUDGET 2019

International markets didn’t witness much volatility as US market remained closed on 4th July over Independence Day.

Now there are 2 points to be noted-
Firstly, the US DOW is at life’s high at 27000 as the plunging yields are now at 1.94% US 10y. This indicates that the rate cut is bound to happen soon.

Secondly, the key number comes in from US payroll at 6.00pm IST. The Fed meet and broader expectation of 162k vs. last times 75k. Moreover, unemployment rate is expected to be at a decade’s high.

Till then market is expected to be trading in a narrow range.
As far as domestic markets are concerned, all eyes were on the much awaited budget, well named as Modi 2.0 budget.

A clean win this election for our respected PM Modi clearly indicates that the public has hopes with this government and expects it to work for the betterment of our country. Similar to these lines, the common man also had many expectations from this budget with respect to taxation, water managements, farmer loans and many other critical issues.

Even the gem, jewellery and gold industry had expectations that this budget would bring some relief to the sector where duty structure is concerned.

What was need was that the government should give a thought on how gold should be treated and how it should be classified into asset class. Once gold is classified into an asset class then other products like Mutual Funds, Insurance Fund, Pension funds should be allowed to invest into the yellow metal. The dollar rupee fluctuation can be hedged and interest rate can be covered on large scale.

Another need of the hour was to have a more organised gold market. Introduction of a trading platform/exchange to trade gold and all transactions should take place only on this platform. This would bring about transparency in its pricing, set benchmark prices and would benefit the end consumer on a large scale.

Gold has an import duty of 10 per cent, and market players wanted it to be pulled down to 4 percent to boost demand. But the government has proposed to increase the duty to 12.5 percent to mobilise resources. We need to wait and see how markets have accepted this rise in duty and what will be their reaction.

Trade War pushes gold prices high

Gold prices ended last week on a high note as prices rose on Friday over the escalating US China trade war. Gold posted a weekly rise as the United States raised tariffs on Chinese goods and increased fears of a global economic slowdown, with a weaker dollar also offering support to the precious metal.

On May 9, the US government announced that since May 10, 2019, the tariff rate imposed on the $200 billion list of goods imported from China has been increased from 10% to 25%.

The above measures by the United States have led to an escalation of Sino-US economic and trade frictions, contrary to the consensus between China and the United States on resolving trade differences through consultations, jeopardizing the interests of both sides and not meeting the general expectations of the international community.

The United States intensified a tariff war with China on Friday by hiking levies on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods amid talks to rescue a trade deal. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he was in no hurry to sign a trade deal with China.
Uncertainty over the real impact on [the] U.S. economy and Chinese economy was driving gold prices higher.

Gold pieces rallied over the following-

• The levy of increased tariffs by the Trump government has increased the demand for safe haven assets like gold and bonds mainly because equities saw a sharp drop over the trade war. Rise in demand ultimately resulted in a rise in gold prices
• Another spill over effect of the trade war can be seen in the fact that the US Federal Reserved may be forced to cut interest rates which will further result in a rise in the yellow metal.
• Global anxiety has also seen an uptick as U.S. bombers arrived at a U.S. base in Qatar. The bombers have been sent to the Middle East to counter what Washington describes as threats from Iran.
• Bullion was also supported by a weaker dollar which fell after data showed a smaller-than-expected rise in the U.S. consumer price index last month.

Initially markets were expected that a trade deal will be struck between the two biggest economies of the world. However what happened over the weekends was much beyond market expectations.

A full-scale trade war between the US and China began. This war of words is closer than ever after Beijing hit back with retaliatory tariffs on Monday. The Chinese Yuan fell by more than 1%, prompting a selloff in copper, while gold jumped $11 to 1299 and Bitcoin hits $7400. USD fell across the board on reports that some Chinese scholars have mentioned Beijing taking the "nuclear option" -- selling US treasuries. Risk trades have been hit hard to start the week with safe haven assets surging.
After vowing over the weekend to "never surrender to external pressure", Beijing defied President Trump's demands that it not resort to retaliatory tariffs and announced plans to slap new levies on $60 billion in US goods.

• China Says to raise tariffs on  some US goods wef June 1
• China Says to raise tariffs on  $60B of U.S. goods
• China says to raise tariffs on  2493 U.S. goods to 25%
• China may stop purchasing US agricultural products :GLOBAL TIMES
• China may reduce Beoing orders: GLOBAL TIMES
• China additional tariffs do not include U.S. crude oil
• China raises tariff on US LNG to 25% w.e.f. June 1
• China to raise tariffs on import of  U.S. rare Earths to 25%


Here's a breakdown of how China will impose tariffs on 2,493 US goods. The new rates will take effect at the beginning of next month.
• 2,493 items to be subjected to 25% tariffs.
• 1,078 items to be subject to 20% of tariffs
• 974 items subject to 10% of tariffs
• 595 items continue to be levied at 5% tariffs


In further bad news for American farmers, China might stop purchasing agricultural products from the US, reduce its orders for Boeing planes and restrict service trade.
China's announcement of counter tariffs acted as a booster for gold prices and resulted in its rise. There have been talks in the market that the Peoples bank of China may start dumping Treasury’s. But will it also dump US stocks and real estate? Well now we get concrete reasons behind the piling of gold reserves by the biggest gold consumer of the world.

Gold is here to stay

Gold was set for a decline last week over strong economic growth numbers. Last week, gold fell ahead of first-quarter earnings season as the dollar gained while the precious metal slumped to its lowest level of the month. Gold fell 1.23 percent at the close of Thursday’s trading session to settle at a price of $1.295.15. Nonetheless, analysts maintain that this is only a temporary setback.

Although equities are doing their part to weigh on gold in the near-term, it is just part of the story. Relative and resilient strength in the U.S. dollar is another factor weighing on the precious metal.

Gold was pulled down over strong economic numbers coming in from the Chinese economy-

• China’s economy expanded more than expected in the first quarter of 2019
• While industrial output and retail sales for March were also better than expected.
• Trade and credit data that came out last Friday also exceeded forecasts

Strong numbers coming in from China, imply that a global slowdown has been diminished to quite some extent. Furthermore, according to the minutes published at its last Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Federal Reserve did leave open the possibility of possible rate hikes this year if the economic data suggests warranting such a move. This, of course, wouldn’t bode well for gold.
The minutes confirmed that if the economic data continue to support the economy, a rate hike could be on the table at the back end of this year. Luckily for the dollar bears, this wasn’t the majority view, at least, not for the time being.

Does this mean the gold will soon lose its sheen?

Well, gold is being supported by ongoing geopolitical issues (U.S.-China trade war and Brexit, among others), concerns around slowing global economic growth and recession fears, and a more dovish U.S. Federal Reserve (no rate hikes in 2019).
Though many investors are shunning gold and shifting focus to equities, there is a set of market analysts that still believe that gold needs to be added in ones portfolio as its gives an insurance cover.

A crisis is expected and it’s soon we realise that one needs to protect his/her finances in times of crisis. And which metal can best prove to be a safe haven asset other than gold?
Gold had faced a similar situation in 2011. Gold was widely ignored since 2011 as an asset class for institutional portfolios. In 2018, bullish sentiment for gold was at a multi year low. Not many people were interested in owning gold.

But then investors realised that they need to own gold in order to protect themselves in times of crisis.

Given the current situation and what is expected in the near future, we can say that gold is here to stay. Even though equities are rising, the momentum won’t sustain in the long run. Fed is not expected to hike rates in 2019. Less hikes and a rate cut would translate to dollar weakness–an open path for strength in gold. Other headwinds include increasing concerns of slowing global economic growth, which could spur a move to safe havens like gold.

And hence this is a very good time for people to get a little bit more defensive and use gold to reserve the wealth they have made in equities.

Investors stockpile gold

Gold witnessed a series of events in the past week which ultimately proved fruitful for gold. Gold was highly influenced positively by a series of following key events:

1. Globally, equities markets plunged down sharply.
2. Uncertainties over the results of the U.S midterm, elections. At the moment there appears to be a strong chance of the Democrats gaining a majority in the House of Representatives, but the Republicans comfortably holding on to their Senate majority. Such a scenario would probably be gold-positive in that it would lead to political gridlock.
3. Trade war between China and US which was initiated by the implementation of tariffs on Chinese goods by the US governments
4. Uncertainty in Europe over the fallout from a possible no-deal scenario for Brexit, 
5. Nervousness over the forthcoming Italian budget which threatens to challenge the Euro zone hierarchy 
6. Geopolitical fallout from the Khasoggi murder which could upset Middle Eastern alliances.

Apart from the ones mentioned above, we still expect some geopolitical difficulties to occur, which may further strengthen gold and help it in breaking its comfort zone.

Gold has been back above $1,200 an ounce for the last two weeks, helped by safe-haven buying due to weakness in global equities and geopolitical tensions. Last week, Gold rose to test monthly highs near $1,240/oz but lost strength and pulled back. The retreat from the top, continued after the ECB meeting and during the American session, amid a stronger US dollar against majors and despite an improvement in risk appetite.

When the yellow metal crossed $1200 mark, it saw many investors retuning to the market with a great interest in gold. Retail buyers have started making their purchased as they expect a further price rise. Further, the investors’ class is also taking some stock profits as Wall Street volatility increased and they’re moving some of those profits to safer or more opportune areas, including gold and silver.

It’s not only the small investor class but also major central banks that are adopting gold. Russia and China have also been trying to win support from global governments to create a new gold-backed currency, thereby removing the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

Gold’s impressive performance of late, coming amid USD [U.S. dollar] strength, suggests that gold finally is behaving like a safe-haven asset.  There has been a pickup in gold purchases by central banks, including Hungary, Poland, India, Turkey and Mongolia, in addition to regular gold buyers Russia and Kazakhstan. And if this continues we will soon see gold at record highs.

Portfolio Allocation Towards Gold Increases

Lately there was a lot of discussion going around on the following issues- is it the time to buy gold? Will gold gain its safe haven appeal? Will investors continue to favour gold?

Well past few days gold gave all these answers. Since last Thursday gold has been in a positive mood, rising constantly and showing the hangover effects in the current week too.

Gold gained as global stock markets suffered from broad declines on Thursday. Major U.S. stock indexes headed lower Thursday, as well, failing to recover from Wednesday’s plunge.

Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday as some investors sought refuge in the precious metal after the global stocks tumbled and the U.S. dollar weakened. Spot gold rose 0.4 percent to $1,194.12 per ounce during late trading hours.

Continuing with the same behavior in the current week, Gold rose more than 1 percent on Monday to its highest in about 2-1/2 months as investors sought refuge in the metal after mounting tensions between Western powers and Saudi Arabia compounded jitters in global stock markets.

Spot gold was up 1 percent at $1,230.05 per ounce later in the day; having touched it’s highest since July 26 at $1,233.26.

There were varied reasons responsible behind gold gaining its glitter. Namely- 

Global Equities - Stocks on major world markets fell to a three-month low, with the benchmark S&P 500 stock index falling more than 3 percent, in its biggest one-day fall since February.  This created panic amongst investors.

Global stocks were under pressure, with European shares hitting 22-month lows on the back of a raft of factors including a U.S.-China trade dispute, rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and western powers, stalled Brexit negotiations and concerns over an economic slowdown in China.

Global Risks - the International Monetary Fund said last week that risks to the global financial system, which have risen over the past six months, could increase sharply if pressures in emerging markets escalate or global trade relations worsen.

Dollar - The U.S. dollar index retreated from a seven-week peak hit in the previous session. The dollar, a key driver for the precious metals, weakened against its currency rivals. Another haven market, however, U.S. Treasury bonds — chief among culprits influencing rickety stock trading of late — drew their own fresh demand Thursday, halting for now the rise in yields that spooked stock investors.

U.S. Stocks - Gold prices surged Thursday to the highest in more than two months, with the metal’s haven status in full force and attracting investment interest amid a sharp retreat for U.S. stocks that has infected foreign indexes

China's gold reserves - the markets were awaiting these figures post the Golden week holiday. Once the numbers were out, the market didn’t wait much to react. The official gold reserves in mainland China have grown from 1,054 tonnes in the first quarter of 2015 to 1,839 tonnes in the third quarter of 2016, to 1,843 tonnes in the second quarter of 2018. The demand for gold among Chinese consumers also rose by 5 per cent in the second quarter from a year ago to 144.9 tonnes. Demand by Indian consumers declined in the same period by 8 per cent to 147.9 tonnes.

The market for gold bars and coins has also been boosted by China and Iran, as they seek to hedge against geopolitical tensions with the United States.

We all know that the rate hike has strengthened the dollar against major basket of currencies. This fall in other currencies against the dollar has had an adverse effect on some of the Administration’s tariff impositions.  Some U.S. manufacturers are already warning that the tariffs on Chinese goods in particular will have an adverse impact on input and consumer prices. If equities are seen as likely to fall further this could see an increased move towards safe haven assets like gold and silver.

We don’t know how far gold will stay or stabilize here, but for the time being gold has definitely given us investment goals. And with the markets gold down, people have increased their allocation towards gold.

Long term looks favorable for Gold

Gold has fallen out of favour as investors prefer havens such as the dollar, Treasuries and yen amid fears that a looming trade war will damage global growth, hurt earnings and drag down stock markets and other risk assets. 

Gold has not fared well lately despite rising global trade tensions that have knocked down equities. Gold has been hurt by expectations for more Federal Reserve hikes complemented by a strengthening US dollar which further pulled down gold prices.

Many believe that gold has lost its shine. Each time it gets close to break the $1350 level, it fails and is unable to generate returns in a rising yield environment and the biggest obstacle for the yellow metal currently is the rally in US dollar .

Hence, precious metal’s “biggest disappointment” this year has been that it keeps failing to attract safe-haven inflows in a meaningful way.

Some even believe that gold has not bottomed out yet and there is further scope for a downfall as gold is oversold. With gold back to trading near six-month lows and prices struggling to catch a break during the past few weeks, analysts are saying that gold is failing to attract safe-haven interest due to a surging U.S. dollar.

However, given the recent equity-market correction and talk of a trade-driven slowdown in the global economy, it is likely that the market will start to get a lot less enthusiastic about aggressive Fed tightening and the US dollar. On the positive note, the interest-rate environment is becoming more favourable for gold, with inflation expectations rising — a good sign for the precious metal that has traditionally been viewed as an inflation hedge,

The Federal Reserve will probably raise interest rates two more times this year, and twice in 2019, while the European Central Bank will likely start tightening in September next year. That should shift the monetary policy divergence in favour of the euro relative to the dollar and be positive for gold in the greenback.

On top of that, lower gold prices might encourage more physical buying in key markets, including China and India.

So in the long term things look favourable for gold and the yellow metal might once again get into the safe haven mode.

Gold - An Investor's Favorite

It seems that after years of under performance gold is here once again to glitter. In one sense, gold is doing what it’s supposed to do. Widely regarded as a safe haven, gold is counted on to provide stability during times of stress. By holding firm as other asset classes were thumped, gold successfully fulfilled that role.

Regardless, ETF Securities’ Gold says that it’s not the short-term movements in gold that matter; the yellow metal really shines as a safe haven during prolonged market downturns.

Gold prices have been trading in the range of $1,100-$1,400 an ounce since 2013, after hitting the levels of more than $1,800 in 2011.  On Thursday, international spot gold was at $1,319.13. Going forward, the macro theme of higher inflation and interest rates is expected to continue and that would provide underlying support for gold.

Gold prices ended Friday at their lowest level in just over two weeks, generally tethered to the dollar this week yet supported by persistent global political and trade tensions given the metal’s haven-asset status.

However, Friday’s “trading action indicates that the impact of political turmoil is fleeting and that investors’ primary focus remains on the economy and monetary policy,”
There are many influential factors that create bullish sentiments for the yellow metal in the near term. Let’s have a look at them.

Gold ETF’s- If we look at investment flows so far this year, for the first time in many years, money is flowing into broad based commodities indices. The ETF [Exchange Traded funds] comes with the whole specter, that indicates the diversification aspects as they move from potentially higher inflation or interest rates scenario and this money is going into precious metals through ETF.

The increased allocation that we have witnessed over the past few years in ETFs as a safe haven or diversifies has been increasing and that will further support gold prices.

Rate Hike - Higher inflation and interest rates have been always supportive of the yellow metal, which is often seen as a hedge against any increase in the consumer price index. Rate hikes has been the best buying opportunity for gold during the past 2 years, since the present cycle has been ongoing. So long as we don’t see any accelerated cycle of rate hikes in the US, gold is going to perform reasonably well. We are buying gold as a hedge against inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, against worries about stocks markets, and all these drivers are still there,” Hansen said.

Economic Data - The market has been confined in a relatively tight range and so, gold market-timers looking for a buy signal need a clearer bearish sign. U.S. economic data Friday, ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve decision on monetary policy, showed February housing starts were down 7%, while industrial production for the same month jumped 1.1%. Consumer sentiment in March hit 14-year high. If the US overheats, and that would lead to worries about disinflation or deflation, we would see a bigger correction in stock markets, and that would have a positive impact on gold.

Demand from India and China - Gold’s qualities make it one of the most coveted metals in the world and a popular gift in the form of jewelry. From the beginning of the Indian wedding season in September until Chinese New Year in February, the price of gold tends to rise due to higher demand from the two biggest consumers of gold, China and India.

Global economic conditions - current economic conditions make an even greater case for gold. The stock market is still on a historic bull run, and the tax reform bill is helping ratchet up share prices. It’s important to remember that the precious metal has historically shared a low-to-negative correlation with equities. For the past 30 years, the average correlation between the LBMA gold price and the S&P 500 Index has been negative 0.06.

US political issues - Traders in the financial market have been weighing the potential for more turmoil in the Trump administration. Media reports said the president was planning to sack his national security adviser H.R. Mc Master, which would be the second high-profile firing from the White House this week. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was fired on Tuesday and replaced with Central Intelligence Agency Director Mike Pompeo.

Trade war - While personnel issues unfold, concerns over a possible trade war between the U.S. and key trading partners were still weighing on investor’s minds as well, analysts said. The White House said on Wednesday it will seek to trim the U.S.’s trade deficit with China by $100 billion, using tariffs. The European Union, meanwhile, was working to get the bloc exempt from the tariffs.

Since markets strongly believe that gold is here to stay, it has once again become an essential part of an investor’s portfolio due to its history as a protector against inflation.

Gold has also performed competitively against many asset classes over the past few decades. This makes the metal, we believe, an appealing diversifier in the event of a correction in the capital markets.

Wait, Watch and Then Work

In 2016, gold was seen climbing 6% from $1050 to $1150 and another 10% gain during the first half of this year, in July and again in early August, gold prices dropped down to $1210, before rallying back up both times to $1290 and $1350 per ounce respectively. This back and forth price action has some investors worried if this is a real bull market in gold or yet another flash in the pan for the coveted yellow metal?

Reasons being more than one, Investors arereturning to gold again to prudently diversify their stock-heavy portfolios.  That’s very bullish for gold, as investment capital inflows can persist for months or even years.  This shift is most evident in the yellow metal.

There are a couple of issues pushing and pulling at the market. The reaction to the missile launch last week has been a bit negated by that better-than-expected (US) inflation number.

Spot gold slipped on Friday, shrugging off North Korea's latest missile launch over Japan, with strong US inflation data raising the spectre of another interest rate hike.

Let’s have a look as to how each factor was responsiblefor this wave like movement in gold prices.

North Korea - North Korea fired a missile on Friday that flew over Japan's northern island of Hokkaido far out into the Pacific Ocean, South Korean and Japanese officials said, further ratcheting up tensions after Pyongyang's recent test of a powerful nuclear bomb.

US Data - Geopolitical risks can boost demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and the Japanese yen. The yen slipped against the dollar on Friday, after earlier having risen on the news, with the greenback supported by strong US consumer inflation data.

Gold pared losses after data on Friday showed U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell in August and industrial output dropped for the first time since January due to the impact of Hurricane Harvey.
Friday's numbers were in contrast to strong U.S. inflation data on Thursday which increased prospects of an interest rate hike in December.The Fed's next monetary policy meeting begins on Sept. 19 and now the marketis increasingly focusing on the Federal Reserve and its probability of another rate hike this year.

The Fed has a 2 per cent inflation target, and a series of subdued inflation readings have dampened expectations for further rate rises in the near term. Firming inflation could support the case for another rate hike. Interest rates tend to boost the dollar and push bond yields up, putting pressure on gold.

ECB - Gold fell on Friday after a European Central Bank official called for scaling back the bank's stimulus programme; although losses were capped when weaker than expected U.S. economic data raised questions about further rate hikes.

ECB board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger made the most explicit call so far from an ECB policymaker for paring the bank's 2.3 trillion euros money-printing programme.

Data showing that euro zone wages grew at their fastest rate in two years in the second quarter bolstered the case for reining in ECB stimulus.

This was rather a bad news for gold because this continues the trend of the market pricing in the normalization of monetary policy.

But he said there had already been plenty of headlines about the ECB planning an exit from its bond buying and the U.S. Federal Reserve reducing its balance sheet after its big quantitative easing programme.

Those "normalisation" actions by central banks tend to drive rates higher, push bond yields up and put pressure on gold, a non-yielding asset.

Summing it up, though the previous week saw gold moving like a see saw; the focus now shifts to the important FOMC meet due on 19th September. Wait, Watch and then Work would be the only trading tip for the time being.

Weekly Gold Forecast

The week began on a silent note for precious metals. Gold was up +0.1% which probably reflects a lull in the haven demand as investors appear risk-on at the beginning of the week. It was strange to see that demand for the yellow metal wasn’t much despite of the on-going geopolitical tensions.

OVER THE WEEKEND, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un warned of a second “Korean War” as US- South Korea military exercises, viewed as “reckless behavior” by the North Korean leader. But reactions in the market were contradictory as the market layers stayed calm. Hence the news which could have had strongly pushed gold prices further proved to be non-influential for gold.

After a firm price movement on Monday, precious metals were more or less stable on Tuesday morns. Spot gold prices were down by 0.2% at $1287.90.

On Wednesday, Gold prices edged slightly higher after news that sales of new U.S. single-family homes fell by 9.4% in July to a seasonally adjusted and annualized pace of 571,000, which was below forecasts.

Consensus estimates compiled by various news organizations called for sales to be around 610,000 to 620,000. The Commerce Department revised sales for June upward to 630,000 from the originally reported 610,000.

Apart from the geo political tension, the focus now shifts on host of global economic data that will be released throughout the week

Akshaya Tritiya’ a day for GOLD?

India is probably the only country where a religious day is linked to a practice of gold buying. It is the Akshaya Tritiya festival day and we are talking tons of gold here. According to estimates, Indian consumers bought about 20 tonnes of the precious metal on this festive day in 2010. However this was much lower than the buy in 2009 due to soaring prices. India, the world's largest consumer of the yellow metal, bought some 45 tonnes of Gold in 2009. So what makes Akshaya Tritiya a day for GOLD?

For Indians buying gold is a popular activity on Akshaya Tritiya day, as it is the ultimate symbol of wealth and prosperity. This year the date of Akshaya Tritiya is Saturday, 29^th April. This day is important to both Hindus and Jains. According to the traditional panchang Akshaya Tritiya falls on the third day (Tritiya) of the new moon of Vaishakh month (April-May) every year.

Akshaya in Sanskrit means one that ‘never diminishes’ (a—kshaya) and the day is believed to bring good luck and success. Hindus believe they can get lasting prosperity by buying precious metals on the day. Akshaya Tritiya is traditionally earmarked for beginning new ventures, for investing and purchasing valuables especially gold, jewellery and diamond. It is no surprise Indians buy gold on Akshaya Tritiya as it is considered very auspicious and a safe investment. It is also believed that any meaningful activity started on this day would be fruitful.

We all know that 2011 was the best performing year for gold wherein the yellow metal gave highest returns compared to all assets in it class.

Economically this day is quite productive for marketers as they cash in on the festivity to boost their sales. Marketers indulge in high voltage advertisement campaigns especially the jewellery stores. In fact people in India and overseas book jewellery in advance and take delivery on Akshaya Tritiya day. It’s a day of frenzy buying for all precious metals especially gold. Sales on Akshaya Tritiya day usually increases four to five times compared to normal days. Traditionally the preference for customers is to buy light-weight jewellery, diamond jewellery but today’s economic superpower India sees several buyers preferring diamond jewellery purchases.

India is a secular country and each religion has its own story behind the celebrating Akshaya Tritiya and buying gold on this auspicious occasion.

Let’s have a brief look at the different stories behind each celebration.

According to Hindu astrology, the entire Akshaya Tritiya day is auspicious. So there is no need to look for an auspicious time i.e. no ‘Muhurat’ required on this day. This is the only day in any year when the Sun which is the lord of the planets and Moon which is the lord of creativity are in exaltation meaning at their peak of radiance. Astrologically this is extremely auspicious. That also makes this day one of the most popular dates in Hindu calendar for marriages and partnerships.

Glance through the annals of ancient Indian heritage and one finds that on this Tritiya day of Vaishakh month many significant things of great spiritual importance happened. According to Jain legends, this day is auspicious as people from Ayodhya bought gold and jewellery to offer to their Tirthankara Rshabhdev who was the King of Ayodhya centuries ago. Jains, even today, observe long term fast to commemorate their first Tirthankara Rishabhdev and break their fast on Akshaya Tritiya day with sugar cane juice as Rishabhdeva broke his fast with that juice after 1 year.

According to the ancient Hindu religious texts like the Puranas, this day marked the beginning of the "SatyaYug" or the Golden Age - the first of the four Yugas. It is believe that on this day Lord Krishna gave Draupadi a bowl - Akshaya patara (where food came in abundance) when the Pandavas were in exile. Traditionally this third day in the bright fortnight of Vaishakh is also the day of the sixth incarnation of Lord Vishnu ~ the ‘preserving’ manifestation of God in the Hindu Trinity.

On this day of Akshaya Tritiya, Maharishi Veda Vyas along with Lord Ganesha started writing the great epic Mahabharata. It is also the day the most sacred river of the Hindus, Ganga descended to earth. On this day Sudama visited his childhood buddy Lord Krishna with a hearty gift of a handful of beaten rice (poha). The good returns (prasad) he got in return for his devotion to the Lord is a classical story told in Hindu households. On such a day associated with Lord Krishna the story of Sudama’s offering is mentioned along with Lord Krishna’s affirmation in his Holy Gita ~ "Whoever offers a leaf, a flower, a fruit or even water with devotion, that I accept, offered as it is with a loving heart ".

Thus, many are the reasons for Akshaya Tritiya to be considered a wish fulfilling day. Any worship performed or daan (donation) given on this day is considered extremely good karma. Good karma is considered meritorious and is supposed to bestow beneficial results.

Akshaya Tritiya Muhurat to Buy Gold

April 28, 2017 (Friday) - 10:29 to 29:46+

Auspicious Choghadiya timings between 10:29 to 29:46+

Morning Muhurat (Char, Labh, Amrit) = 10:29 - 10:41
Afternoon Muhurta (Shubh) = 12:19 - 13:57
Afternoon Muhurta (Char) = 17:13 - 18:51
Night Muhurta (Labh) = 21:34 - 22:56
Night Muhurta (Shubh, Amrit, Char) = 24:18+ - 28:24+

Akshaya Tritiya Muhurat to Buy Gold

April 29, 2017 (Saturday) - 05:46 to 06:55

Auspicious Choghadiya timings between 05:46 to 06:55

No Muhurat Available

GOLD STABILISES AMIDST UNCERTAINTIES

While when gold was just about to continue to maintain its 3 month high last week, there was a sudden pull back and gold prices moved lower by the end of the week.

Gold steadied on Friday, but remained below the week's three-month top as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields came off their highs after the currency initially jumped on U.S. President Donald Trump's promise of a major tax announcement.

Gold was being pushed and pulled amidst various factors that played key roles in influencing gold prices-

Interest Rate - Gold slid on Thursday from a three-month high in the previous session after strong U.S. economic data pointed to a robust economy, increasing the possibility that the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates.
U.S. economic data has also strengthened talk that the Federal Reserve would press ahead with U.S. interest rate hikes sooner rather than later.
Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates which increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion while boosting the dollar  in which it is priced.

Dollar and Data - U.S. economic data also underpinned the dollar. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped last week to a nearly 43-year low, while inventories at wholesalers surged in December for a second straight month. U.S. import prices rose more than expected in January.
The data showing rising U.S. wholesale inventories and an unexpectedly low number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits further pushed up the dollar and U.S. bond yields.                        
A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, while higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Higher interest rates would lift yields further.
           
Tax Announcement - Donald Trump plans to announce the most ambitious tax reform plan since the Reagan era in the next few weeks, the White House said.
On Thursday, sending stock prices and the dollar higher on hopes leading to a cut in corporate tax rates.

French Elections - Investors are concerned about the strong showing in the French presidential race of far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, who has promised to take France out of the euro zone and to hold a referendum on European Union membership.

Gold held near 3-month highs on Thursday as political risks from elections in Europe and worries over U.S. President Donald Trump's policies buoyed safe haven demand for the bullion.

While gold was stabilised by Friday. It was still amongst the favourites for investors. Many of them are being bullish for gold – Reasons being :

• Controversy over U.S. President Donald Trump's temporary travel ban on people from seven Muslim-majority countries has recently boosted gold as a safe-haven asset.
• Further geo-political uncertainties, increasing hostilities in the Ukraine, Greek bailouts, French elections, Iran-U.S. sabre-rattling have supported gold prices and drawn interest from investors who seek support in safe haven assets.
• Investors' bullish stance on gold is reinforced by an increase in net longs by speculators and a rise in holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund. (SPDR holdings rose 0.68 percent to 832.58 tonnes on Wednesday from Tuesday, rising for a sixth straight session.)

Increasing uncertainties has increased the demand for gold as a hedge. Amidst all this, gold prices are expected to rise till Mid Feb. Once January CPI data is released, it will give an idea about the possibility of a rate hike in March which will then be a deciding factor in the movement of gold prices.

Push vs Pull for GOLD

Last week, gold clocked its largest weekly gain in some seven months. The move came higher as investors flocked to gold, which is often viewed as a safe-haven investment in times of uncertainty.
Last Thursday, markets kept a close watch in the Jobs report that was due on Friday. Apart from the Job report there were many other highlighted events in the week-

Jobs Data- U.S. job growth surged more than expected in January as construction firms and retailers ramped up hiring, but wages barely rose, handing the administration under President Donald Trump, both a head start and a challenge as it seeks to boost the economy.

This report pushed gold prices higher and the sentiments have been continued for this week too.
The gold price climbed on Monday to its highest in nearly three months with investor interest in bullion improving thanks to a subdued dollar and political worries about the US and Europe.
Spot gold was up 0.6% at $1,226.91 during trading hours, having earlier touched $1,230.14, a level last reached on November 17.

Political Uncertainty- Majorly, the current uncertainty prevailing in the US is being driven further by President Donald Trump’s policies, the most controversial of which is a temporary ban on immigrants from seven Muslim countries.

Moreover, Data on Friday showed U.S. wage growth slowed, reducing the odds of Federal Reserve rate increases this year and sending bullion to the biggest weekly gain since June. Uncertainty about Trump’s fiscal-stimulus policies and his administration’s spats with traditional allies helped push hedge funds’ bullish bets on gold to the most in almost two months.

Dollar - The dollar’s value against a basket of currencies has fallen nearly 4% since January 3. That was partly on expectations that the US central bank will wait to see what happens on the political and economic fronts after Friday’s monthly jobs report showed that wages barely rose. "Gold’s solid showing so far this year ... is mostly attributable to a weaker dollar and last week’s standoffish Federal Reserve statement with regard to when it would next move on rates. Trump has also criticized the strength of the dollar, which has pushed the greenback lower. A weaker dollar is good for gold as gold is denominated in U.S. dollars.

French politics - Elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany this year are also adding to jitters. Apart from the Trump presidency euphoria, investors are also watching French politics, where conservative presidential candidate Francois Fillon on Monday vowed to fight on for the presidency despite a damaging scandal involving taxpayer-funded payments to his wife for work which a newspaper alleges she did not do. French pollster Opinion way published a survey on Monday that showed independent Emannual Macron resoundingly winning a presidential election runoff against far-right leader Marine LePen.

Interest rate hike - The Fed raised rates for only the second time since the financial crisis in December and most Fed policymakers agree with Harker that three more rate hikes this year would be appropriate. Wall Street banks and interest-rate futures traders are betting the Fed will only lift borrowing costs twice this year, starting in June.

Currently there is basket of positive and negative factors that might respectively push or pull gold prices further. Of course the positive factors for gold could indeed be overturned by a significant improvement In US employment statistics, or advances in GDP, thus strengthening the Fed’s hand, but if the dollar continues to fall (President Trump appears to think it is too high) and real interest rates remain negative, gold could yet have a good way to run this year, particularly given the global geopolitical uncertainties noted above.

Budget views 2017

From the previous budget to this year’s- Gold witnessed some key events in the domestic market.

They varied from politics to economic to geopolitical. Namely-

Demonetisation

Prime Minister Narendra  Modi made the surprise announcement on 8th November 2016 that the 500 and 1000 Rupees are just “worthless piece of paper”. The 500 and 1000 Rupees notes have been banned to fight back money and money-laundering. The new 2000 and 500 Rupees notes were released on 8th November 2016. The aftermath of demonetization, banks and ATM across the country faced severe cash shortages.

Goods and service bills passed

Goods and Services Tax bill were passed on 8 August 2016. GST is a proposed system of indirect taxation in India merging most of, the existing taxes into a single system of taxation. It would be a comprehensive indirect tax on the manufacture, sale and consumption of goods and services throughout India, to replace taxes levied by the state and central governments.

Surgical Strike Against Pakistan

The Indian said that it had conducted “Surgical Strikes against suspected militants in Pakistani-administered Kashmir on 29 September 2016. Lt Gen Ranbir Singh (DGMO) said that it had received “very credible and specific information” about “terrorist teams” who were preparing to “carry out infiltration and conduct terrorist strikes inside Jammu and Kashmir and in various metros in other states”. The Indian action was meant to pre-empt their infiltration.

But of the ones mentioned above gold was majorly affected in the year end by the announcement of demonetisation scheme.

Gold has been a beneficiary and even a victim of demonetisation. On a net basis, this demonetisation exercise as of now has been neutral for gold. As the demonetisation alarm bells rang, the rush to buy gold was almost immediate. As media reports suggest and also confirmed by gold import numbers, a lot of gold was sold on the night of November 8, as many rushed to buy gold with old notes. Post that, as the cash crunch hit the economy, there was a significant decline in discretionary spending including gold.

In many of our pre budget expectations over the past few years, we have always proposed to make the gold industry more organised. Fortunately, the demonetisation scheme, launching of a gold scheme and making PAN number compulsory for purchases of gold jewellery worth more than Rs 2 lakh shows the seriousness of government in making the making gold a commodity and thus channelizing it into a more organised way.These are signs of positive policy

After a neutral financial year for gold industry in India, all eyes were on the Finance Minister for the budget that was presented today- Feb 1st. This date marks the change in previous customary budget schedules which usually took place at around the end of February, usually February 28. The gold industry was hoping for a change from last few years of high import duties to a more reduced levy.

The industry was expecting a reduction in duty not onlyfor the interest of the dealers but also for the good of the common man.

However, there was no such announcement and duties have been unchanged. The budget is neutral for the gold industry and overall positive. On a scale of 1 to 10 I would rate this budget as 6.5.

#SaluteModi : RSBL

This was one of the boldest movements by the Government of India announced over a 40-minute speech. In one of the historical reforms of the economy of India, Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes were banned effective Tuesday midnight which is expected to bring in 7 lac crore in the RBI account.

The entire team at RiddiSiddhi Bullions ltd. supports this brave move of Our Respected PM Mr. Modi. We assure complete support for the successful implementation of these measures to fight corruption and illicit financial flows in India.  The majority of industry and commoners alike reacted to this decision with overwhelming support and we at RSBL will extend total cooperation for it. Our aim is to have a "black money free India".

Mr. PRITHVIRAJ KOTHARI (MD, RSBL) MAKES GOLD PRICE PREDICTION FOR THE YEAR 2016

(Brief details are given below. For full detail, view the embedded You Tube video) 

Link to the video: https://youtu.be/0vUYZf9M1RQ

QUESTION 1: After 2 consecutive years of negative returns, what is your Gold Price Forecast for 2016?

Prithviraj Kothari: I do agree that since couple of years there is a downward trajectory with respect to Gold prices, since it had been increasing for almost 11 odd years. But according to me a range of $1050 - $1070 an oz is the cost to the mines to procure Gold. Looking at that figure, I find it difficult for the price to go below this range. I see an increase to the extent of 7% to 8% compared to last year in the year 2016.

QUESTION 2: How will it translate in the Rupee term?

Prithviraj Kothari: In rupee term, gold price may hover between Rs 24,000 and Rs 30,000 per 10 grams.

QUESTION 3: What impact do you envisage on gold following the US Fed’s interest rate hike?

Prithviraj Kothari: A 25 bps interest rate hike after a decade in 2015 followed by four such hikes in 2016 by the US Fed has already been factored in with the price of Gold. If you see the price of Gold eventually appreciated when the rate hike took place. A bottom line could be $1000 to $1050 at the most in the line with the mining costs.

QUESTION 4: What impact do you see of high import duty on gold import into India?

Prithviraj Kothari: Indian population is around 125 crore with consumption less than 1gram, bringing import figure to 850-900 tons. With present import duty of 10%, it has created big gap between International price and Indian price. This import duty almost comes to INR 250,000 per kilo. Usually, import of gold has been in the range of 800 to 900 tons per year. Last year gold smuggling was around 200 tons. The increased price gap may give rise to increase in gold malpractices.

QUESTION 5: Do you see any impact of Government related Gold schemes? Would they be beneficial?

Prithviraj Kothari: I am positive with government efforts & schemes. Gold Monetization and Gold Sovereign Bond schemes are good. Gold Monetization scheme will be worthwhile, if it can draw 1000 tons or even 500 tons of gold from temples, public etc. will also have impact on international price. It should happen gradually.

QUESTION 6: India’s gold import has been diverted towards Dore. Would it really help gold jewellery industry at large?

Prithviraj Kothari: It depends on import. Dore import is processed in limited refineries to manufacture pure gold. These refineries import Dore at $2 lower. Those jewelers will be benefited by $3 to 4, who make ornaments by buying gold from refineries.

QUESTION 7: What is your final take on ending of 2015 and 2016 soon to begin?

Prithviraj Kothari: 2016 will be good for the trade. It may create bullion history and it may be ‘Golden Period’ for all traders.

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