RSBL Gold Silver Bars/Coins

Saturday, 31 August 2013


-By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

Gold prices rallied above $1,430 an ounce to 3-1/2 month highs on Wednesday as rising tensions over Syria sparked safe-haven demand and a scramble among investors to cut their bets on falling prices

The metal hit a peak of $1,433.31 an ounce, its highest since May 14, as the United States and its allies geared up for a probable military strike against Syria in response to an apparent gas attack that killed hundreds of civilians in a rebel-held suburbs of Damascus. 
Gold was on track for a 5.40 percent gain on the month and its second straight monthly increase. It briefly trimmed its decline in the afternoon as U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry made a case for a "limited" strike against Syria, but prices fell back to pre-speech levels before he finished his televised address.

Till then, gold was dancing to the moves of the data released by US. Gold fell on Thursday, snapping a five-day rally as a U.S.-led military strike on Syria appeared not to be imminent and investors turned their attention to strong U.S. economic growth and the Federal Reserve's plans to rein in its stimulus program.

Gold prices in the international market declined as US economy grew by 2.5 percent annualized rate in Q2 up from previous quarters' 1.7%. Economists widely expected the GDP to grow by 2.2% and the trumping of expectations along with the dip in initial jobless claims by 6000 last week ensured a dip in gold futures. Gold slid below $1,400 an ounce on Friday as the dollar rallied to a four-week high, with investors squaring positions at the end of the month and cashing in on a recent run-up ahead of a long U.S. holiday weekend

I feel the correction in Gold prices came mostly from month-end position squaring and profit-taking after prices on Wednesday reached their highest levels since mid-May. I pray for all the souls who have lost their lives in Syria and may peace usher in the nation.
Meanwhile, In South Africa there was an atmosphere of unrest. The National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) has given 48 hours’ notice of a strike at South Africa’s gold producers, the country’s Chamber of Mines said on Friday.

The Chamber, which collectively bargains on behalf of South African gold miners AngloGold Ashanti, Gold Fields, Rand Uranium, Harmony Gold, Evander Gold Mine, Sibanye Gold and Village Main Reef, expects the strike to take effect from the night shift on September 3.
This too will affect gold prices.

While in the domestic market, the Indian rupee slipped for third consecutive day in a row on Wednesday to close at a fresh record low of 68.80 per dollar, as uncertainty over a possible US-led military strike against Syria knocked down Asian equity markets and currencies. This is the biggest ever single-day fall for the currency since 1995.

Apart from global factor, India suffers higher current account deficit fuelling worries that foreign investors will continue to sell out of a country facing stiff economic challenges.
The currency has plunged over 13 per cent so far in the month of August alone to mark its worst monthly fall since the year 1993.

Rupee has plunged nearly 25 per cent so far in the year 2013. A plunging rupee has affected bullion prices too taking gold to a life time high of in the Indian markets.

Risk of supply disruptions for platinum remains at large, I feel the sustainability of a price rally above $1,500 is likely to reduce as the jewellery demand will fade above $1,500. China is the dominant player in the platinum jewellery market, accounting for nearly 60% of the world platinum jewellery demand.  

With respect to Silver’s rally over the past few weeks, I believe the metal’s underlying fundamentals remain weak. I feel short covering was the major support that leads the metal prices to reach higher levels. I do believe for the time being the metal will also find support on dips (taking its lead from gold). 

The trade range for gold for the coming week is expected to be $1375-$1423 an ounce in the international markets, and in the domestic market it is expected to range between Rs.30,000- Rs.33,500 per 10 gram

“The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.”

- Previous blog -
"Will Gold cross the $1400 mark?"

Monday, 26 August 2013


-By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

Is something wrong with market? Yes that's exactly what traders and investors were discussing. Gold has just touched $1400 which was once seen an untrue level after the fall. Will it be able to cross it and reach new highs is what the below given factors can forecast.
The main highlight for this week was the depreciating rupee. Initially the markets expected rupee to return from the level of 62. Then they claimed 64. But the rupee made new low of 65 against the dollar. Now it is expected to depreciate further to 70. However, by Friday evening rupee returned to the levels of 63.90

The economy is facing a slump. Inflation is at a high, growth has hampered and equities have shattered.
Although the government has been trying its level best to intervene at all critical levels and control the rupee, nothing seems to be helping.
This drop in the rupee pushed gold and silver upwards.

Strong US Dollar and rise in treasury yields were seen pressuring the commodity movement to certain extent. In the United States, ten-year treasury yields climbed to 2.92%, the highest since July 2011 after FOMC minutes were failed to give any further details on tapering monetary stimulus. Investors hope that the Central Bank may start tapering its monetary stimulus later this year.

Gold prices in the global market edged up on Friday after weekly US unemployment claims recorded an upward movement. However, concerns over the withdrawal of US monetary stimulus were seen pressuring the yellow metal prices to certain extent.
Gold jumped to a 11-week high, topping $1,400 an ounce in spot trading, as sales of new U.S. homes fell more than forecast, boosting speculation that the Federal Reserve will maintain economic stimulus. Sales of newly built homes in July plunged more than 13 percent, the most in more than three years, government data showed today. The 394,000 annualised pace compared with a drop to 487,000 forecast by analysts in a Bloomberg survey. Fed policy makers said they are “broadly comfortable” in scaling back debt purchase if the economy strengthens.

By Friday evening gold was seen trading at 1397$ up by 21$ and silver was up by 95 cents, trading at 24.07$

In the physical markets, renewed labour unrest in South Africa sent platinum and palladium higher on Thursday, and this too, provided an element of support to both gold and silver.

By Friday evening, in the domestic markets too we saw gold and silver rocketing. Gold climbed by INR 750 trading approximately at INR 31,900 per 10 gram and silver was up INR 2200 reaching a high of INR 53,400 per kg.

The fact that gold managed to reverse its losses and close modestly higher on the day was quite impressive and likely had something to do with the fact that better-than-expected Chinese data which suggests that the economy is stabilizing, potentially a positive in terms of future Chinese gold demand
Another report that caught attention was the World old Council's gold consumer demand report. The impressive thing to note was that Gold consumer demand rose by more than half in the second quarter of this year thanks to strong demand in China and India, the World Gold Council (WGC) said.
In India, the Gold Trade holds steady in spite of the government imposing import tax hikes on gold in an attempt to reduce the country’s current account deficit. In fact, according to the WGC, gold jewellery, bar and coin demand in India alone was 70 percent stronger in the second quarter of 2013 compared to the same quarter last year.
Consumer demand in China continued to show strong growth, totalling 276t in the second quarter, a rise of 87% compared to the same quarter last year, as investors used the lower gold price to buy in advance of expected future price rises. Jewellery demand in the quarter was 153t, up 54% on the same quarter last year, while bar and coin investment was 123t, up 157% on Q2 2012.
Recent falls in the gold price have boosted demand significantly – it rose 53 percent in the April-June period from the same three months of last year, the WGC said in a report on Thursday.
Looking at the good monsoons of India and the festive season closing by, the domestic prices for precious metals need to be watched closely. Whether supply will be able to meet the demand will be the question that every Indian attached to precious metals will be having in their mind. 

“The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.”

- Previous blog -
"Precious Metals on the Run"

Saturday, 17 August 2013


- by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

Gold, Silver and Platinum all of them have found a new life after they broke their technical resistances, strongly.
 Gold rose nearly 1 percent to a two-month high on Friday, and bullion posted its biggest weekly gain of almost 5% in many weeks.

Silver rose 1.5 per cent for an eighth consecutive daily gain. The grey metal has sharply outperformed gold and was up 14 per cent this week for its biggest weekly rise in almost five years. The Gold/Silver ratio has corrected 50% of its move since end November last year and given that the 200 day moving average should provide some support too at 58.08, we might cool down in Silver versus Gold and digest the strong recent out performance.

Platinum is trading above $1,500—hitching its star to gold’s wagon.

Gold's and Silver’s rally came as U.S. stock indexes were lower on Friday and on track for their biggest weekly declines in months. The rally in gold towards $1,372 is perhaps even more impressive because the price rise came despite the 10-year US government bond yield breaking above 2.75% yesterday. Rising bond yields have been negatively correlated with the gold price over the past few months – but not yesterday. Adding more support is that we are not seeing any major slowdown in physical gold demand yet despite the rally in the gold price. Rallies like we experienced yesterday would typically see physical demand fall away until the price volatility settles once again. The SGE premium has not fallen below $22/oz the past few days.

Even the greenback pared its early gains against its peers on Friday as release of weaker-than-expected U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep its stimulus measures by the end of this year. 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published its recent report of the U.S CPI for July 2013. Based on the latest update, the consumer price index rose again for the third consecutive month; in annual terms the US CPI increased by 2%. Despite the moderate rise in the CPI, it is still very low and remains lower than the inflation target of the Federal Reserve. The low inflation could suggest the U.S economy isn’t heating up, which could raise the odds of the Fed leaving its policy unchanged and keeping the current asset purchase program unchanged. This news may have contributed to the rally of gold and silver prices.

Last but not least, the largest increase in SPDR GLD holdings turned out to be by Goldman Sachs Group, who added 3.7 Mio.

In the domestic market, a record low in the rupee lifted Indian gold futures above the closely watched 30,000-rupee mark. Dealers said the high local price of gold in the world's largest gold buyer is expected to weigh down on demand. This week gold was more of a game of demand and rupee depreciation. 

This week, Government of India increased the import duty on Gold by 2%, Silver by 4% and Platinum by 2% to new 10%. The festive season had given tremendous rise to the demand for gold. The yellow metal witnessed a sharp climb as stockists weighed supply constraints in view of the ensuing festival and marriage seasons in the midst of incessant duty hikes from the government and RBI measures. Besides other extreme steps, like abolishing the purchase of property abroad for Indians, or reducing heavily the amount Indian companies can invest abroad, they also abolished the import of gold coins and medallions. Imports of coins and medallions; however should not have a big impact on thets total import number, as most of the imports are in form of bars and not coins. These new regulations that come up now almost on a daily basis without being too clear have brought imports to a standstill and we still wait for more details on how exactly to conduct imports in the coming days ahead.

Silver also reflected the shiny metal’s surge and zoomed to hit a four-month high owing to heavy speculation.

A sharp fall in Sensex and rupee against dollar and strong global cues also contributed to the upsurge in gold price, which posted the biggest single-day gain after August 19, 2011. Interestingly, the metal had shot up by INR 1,310 on August 19, 2011 as well.

But for Indians who want to invest in gold, you may have a host of restrictions. The big ones are a trade deficit, a current account deficit and a collapsing currency. The rupee is down 28% over the last two years. That's the biggest fall since 1991.

For the weeks to come there is lot of uncertainty prevailing over precious metal prices.
The trade range for golf for the coming week is 1340$- 1420$ and in the domestic market it is expected to trade between Rs.29,000- Rs. 32,000 per 10 gram.

“The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

- Previous blog -
"Dollar makes gold look attractive"

Friday, 9 August 2013


                                   - By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

Yes indeed, dollars helped in making gold look attractive.

This week gold prices benefited from the U.S. dollar's fall to a seven week low against a basket of currencies. Broad USD weakness was the theme of the day yesterday; leaving most of the people puzzled about the negative performance of late and force some to throw in the towel on their long positions.

Precious metals edge higher on modest demand in early Asia, but worries about the Federal Reserve starting to withdraw its stimulus program with an improvement in economic growth is likely to weigh on prices. The Fed's stimulus program has been supportive for gold prices as it triggers demand for the metal considered a hedge against inflation.

Bullion has traded as low as $ 1,180 an ounce in late June on fears of massive fund selling as the Fed looked set to cut its bond buying stimulus as early as September.

While western investors focus on Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing tapering timelines, the bigger gold story is taking place in China. The negative sentiment currently attributable to the gold price masks the accumulation of gold by the Chinese who are set to overtake India this year as the world’s top gold consumer. This is a startling turnaround given the Chinese embargo on gold ownership was only lifted as recently as 2003.

Chinese exports rose 5.1% from a year earlier, rebounding after from June's 3.1% fall, the customs agency said. However, the medium-term economic outlook remains volatile with a broader range of outcomes now possible. China gold production reached 156 tons during 5M2013, up 11% YoY (7.5% in May and 8.6% in 2012), according to China Gold Association.
In 2012, China’s gold consumption reached 776 tons, the world’s largest, up 8% YoY, representing import reliance of 49%, down from 53% in 2011. However, note that gold accounted for only 1.2% of China’s total foreign reserves according to the World Gold Council, compared to 69.8% in US. This prompts China to consider further accumulation of gold to diversify the reserve mix.

Silver and platinum group metals also rallied after data showed Chinese imports of industrial commodities and raw materials rose in July and the world's second-largest economy showed signs of stabilizing after more than two years of slow growth. Moreover the good economic figures out of Germany, which shows that despite fears to the contrary, exports are picking up from manufacturing economies. This coupled with the fact that the markets were running short and the very thin volumes, created the spike. In the past, I have always recommended that Platinum is a buy on Dips. The way it has rallied, it is all thanks to the improving economic scenario.

While in India, though the Dollar weakness and a mostly supportive movement in global equities pushed up the yellow metal today but gains in Indian Rupee ensured that the rise in local futures is tepid

India's gold demand has remained moderate over last few weeks after a spike in April when prices slumped towards INR 25000 per 10 grams in the major local markets. However, World Gold Council is upbeat about the demand for jewellery picking up momentum in the coming quarters in the country and even projected demand for gold touching 865-965 tonnes in 2013, thus exceeding 2012's record.

Currently, most of the Indian companies dealing with Gold related products are facing a severe crunch to get metal. With the government rules and regulations, it has been really hard for the importers. I do expect that Government could shed some more light on the recently announced measures to curb Gold imports.

Gold support is at $1,290 and $1,270. Resistance is at $1,320 and $1,349. $1300 should be the support zone and given the current mood of hunting stops, we are left flipping a coin on which direction the stop hunters could take.

Silver support is at $20.00 and $19.75, resistance is at $20.40 and $20.70.

“The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.”


Saturday, 3 August 2013


-By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

As we discussed last week that this week had a bundle of surprises for gold of which the US employment data was the biggest surprise. There were mixed sentiments in the market post the data release. Investors believed that the jobless claims would be much high compared to June.

Moreover Fed Chairman Bernanke's statement over the stimulus plan created even further confusion.
There was mystification in the market as the jobless claims were 326,000, below the forecast of 346,000 while the private sector ADP change in non- farm payroll came in at 200,000 well above the forecast 179,000.

A weaker-than-expected U.S. July jobs report and a fall in the dollar helped gold rebound from a drop of more than $25 an ounce during Friday’s session, but prices still marked the first weekly loss in four week.

Gold initially fell to a two week low at $1280 an ounce as encouraging US gross domestic product and factory activity data earlier in the week reduced the metal's appeal as an investment hedge.

It jumped about  2 percent from its session low after government data showed U.S. employers slowed their pace of hiring in July but the jobless rate fell anyway, easing fears that the U.S. central bank might imminently reduce its $85 billion monthly bond buy back stimulus.
Gold’s hard times have come from the view that easy money, which has weighed on the dollar and lifted gold in recent years, is going bye-bye sooner or later.

US jobs data is vital to the gold market after the US Federal Open Market Committee indicated that quantitative easing may continue until the unemployment rate falls to 6.5 percent. The Fed remains committed to purchasing $85 billion in new debt per month in an open-ended programme (QE3). Accommodative measures from the US central bank are supportive of commodity prices because extra liquidity tends to debase the dollar and create future inflationary risk.

I am optimistic over the long-term time frame. Targeting inflation, the Federal Reserve's inability to taper, and underlying problems in Europe will make sure precious metals will outperform down the stretch. The nonfarm payrolls data usually brings volatility to gold, but the metals just haven't had enough upside momentum to constitute a breakout, so till that time it will be wait and watch.

In other gold market news, China’s thirst for physical metal remains strong. Imports from Hong Kong at 105 tonnes in June were down slightly from 114 tonnes in May but this was still the fourth-biggest month on record, according to Macquarie, citing Hong Kong export data. Apparent demand from China at 835 tonnes is up more than 50 percent on last year, the broker estimates.

However demand from India has not picked up pace as there are no clarification over the RBI policies for gold and the government is trying to curb g0ld imports to rectify the CAD.

As far as the international markets are concerned, it’s going to be a light week for U.S. economic news, but globally, next week will include a few more central bank meetings including the Reserve Bank of Australia, which is expected to cut rates. The Bank of Japan is also meeting, but is not expected to make changes to monetary policy.  Chinese data slated for release include industrial production, retail sales, export data and inflation report.

Gold support is at $1,280 and $1,260. Resistance is at $1,320 and $1,340. Silver support is at $19.20 and $19.05, resistance is at $20.20 and $20.40.
In the domestic market gold is expected to move in the range of Rs.26,000 to Rs. 29,500 in the coming week.

“The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.”

- Previous blog -
"Bundle of surprises for gold"