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Monday, 18 July 2022

Dollar creates a strong impact worldover

In the past year, we have seen the dollar strengthening massively. The US dollar has been on a major surge against leading global currencies. Recently the dollar hit levels that it had not seen in the past 20 years. It has gained 15 % against the British Pound, 16% against the Euro, and 23% against the Japanese Yen.

The dollar is the world's reserve currency, which means it is used in most international transactions. As a result, any change in its value has a significant impact on the entire global economy.

In such volatile markets, 3 main questions that come to our mind are-

Why has the dollar strengthened?

What impact is it creating?

What next?

Answering the first question- Well there are two main reasons- Economic and Geopolitical-:

ECONOMIC- The Central bank of the US- The Federal Reserve- has been hiking interest rates aggressively and also reserving its policy of creating money by Quantitative Easing (QE). This is to curb inflation caused by Covid supply issues, the war in Ukraine, and QE. The stronger US dollar is a side effect of these higher interest rates. Because the dollar now offers a higher yield when deposited in a US bank, it encourages foreign investors to sell their local currency and buy US dollars.

Geopolitical (Dollar Parity)- the other reason for the surging US dollar is because it is a classic haven when the world is worried about a recession- and the current geopolitical situation is arguably making it still more appealing. The Euro has suffered from the European Union's proximity to the war in Ukraine, its exposure to Russian energy, and the prospect of another Eurozone crisis. It is close to dollar parity for the first time since its early years.


A rising US dollar will have the following impact

  1. High Inflation- Petrol and most commodities are usually traded in US dollars. So, these items tend to get expensive in the local markets as they are priced against the dollar.
  2. The threat faced by low-income countries- Many developing countries owe their debts in US dollars, hence the amount they owe now is much more.
  3. Bigger US trade deficit- Since goods priced in the US dollar will get expensive, other countries won’t buy them resulting in a bigger trade deficit for the US economy,
  4. Fears in the Euro Zone- the strong US dollar is creating pressure on the European central banks to raise their interest rates to prop up and subdue the cost of imports including energy, thus putting more pressure on the Eurozone.
  5. Breaking Precious Metals and Equities market- Furious mega rise in USD at 22 years high at 108.3. the single reason that global equities and metals are under stress despite -20% to even -35% deep cuts. Already seen in just six months.-NASDAQ slipped more than 2% on Monday, 11th July with DOW and DAX remaining weak. Gold and silver started breaking Monday’s low and they may exhibit more weakness causing the largest bullion dealers in India to face the consequence as the dollar surge continues.


Strength in the dollar makes greenback-priced gold by some of the largest bullion dealers in India, more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. It is difficult to predict the future direction of the US dollar especially when there are so many moving parts in the world economy.

Looking forward, fears of an economic slowdown appear crucial support, and hence chatters surrounding the same will be important to track ahead of important data releases from the US.

Friday, 1 July 2022

Investors Are Optimistic About Gold

In the previous session, gold prices were tailored into a tight range as investors and bullion dealers in India were caught up between pressure from prospects of higher interest rates and support from recession risks. While the bull camp can periodically seize control, the gold market has been unable to throw off a recent pattern of lower highs and lower lows, and more importantly, prices have not shown a definitive bullish sensitivity to the classic bullish developments.

With gold periodically lifted by economic uncertainty, yesterday's stronger-than-expected US durable goods readings tampered with uncertainty and likely caused some long liquidation yesterday. Going forward, seeing positive US economic data released on the tail of the solid and durable goods report potentially rekindling widespread expectations of a 75-basis point rate hike next month and would likely prompt a fresh wave of long liquidation/fresh selling in gold and silver. Therefore, gold and silver remain under a liquidation watch.

The price of the yellow metal has been mostly rangebound for June, which has made for shorter-term two-way business between the final weeks of the month between $1,848 and $1,820 in the main. However, rather than rebounding from down here, the price is starting to eat into liquidity below with bulls checked by gains in the US dollar and inflationary pressures that are running at a 40-year high. Higher US yields, as a consequence, are detrimental to the yellow metal since gold does not offer investors and bullion dealers in India any yield.

That said, the gold traders and gold dealers in India should keep their eyes on the monetary policy discussions among the central bankers from the US, the UK, and the European Union (EU) at the ECB Forum seem for a fresh impulse. The US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) for Q1 2022, expected to remain unchanged at 5.1%, could entertain traders.

The US Federal Reserve policymakers promised further rapid interest-rate hikes to bring down high inflation on Tuesday. Still, they pushed back against growing fears among investors, gold dealers in India, and economists whose sharp higher borrowing costs will trigger a steep downturn.

Although gold is seen as an inflation hedge, higher interest rates and bond yields raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion, which yields no interest. It is worth noting that the latest weakness in the macro data joins inflation fears and geopolitical tussles surrounding Russia and China to amplify the risk of economic slowdown.

After peaking at the more tremendous highs from earlier in the year, gold prices have now been weighed down by a strong US dollar. But markets continue to remain optimistic and expect the gold price to rise by the end of the year- thanks to high inflation, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and the threat of recession. So, hopefully, gold awaits to enter the bulls by the end of 2022.