BUDGET 2019

International markets didn’t witness much volatility as US market remained closed on 4th July over Independence Day.

Now there are 2 points to be noted-
Firstly, the US DOW is at life’s high at 27000 as the plunging yields are now at 1.94% US 10y. This indicates that the rate cut is bound to happen soon.

Secondly, the key number comes in from US payroll at 6.00pm IST. The Fed meet and broader expectation of 162k vs. last times 75k. Moreover, unemployment rate is expected to be at a decade’s high.

Till then market is expected to be trading in a narrow range.
As far as domestic markets are concerned, all eyes were on the much awaited budget, well named as Modi 2.0 budget.

A clean win this election for our respected PM Modi clearly indicates that the public has hopes with this government and expects it to work for the betterment of our country. Similar to these lines, the common man also had many expectations from this budget with respect to taxation, water managements, farmer loans and many other critical issues.

Even the gem, jewellery and gold industry had expectations that this budget would bring some relief to the sector where duty structure is concerned.

What was need was that the government should give a thought on how gold should be treated and how it should be classified into asset class. Once gold is classified into an asset class then other products like Mutual Funds, Insurance Fund, Pension funds should be allowed to invest into the yellow metal. The dollar rupee fluctuation can be hedged and interest rate can be covered on large scale.

Another need of the hour was to have a more organised gold market. Introduction of a trading platform/exchange to trade gold and all transactions should take place only on this platform. This would bring about transparency in its pricing, set benchmark prices and would benefit the end consumer on a large scale.

Gold has an import duty of 10 per cent, and market players wanted it to be pulled down to 4 percent to boost demand. But the government has proposed to increase the duty to 12.5 percent to mobilise resources. We need to wait and see how markets have accepted this rise in duty and what will be their reaction.

Akshaya Tritiya - Where Gold IS loved by All

Akshaya Tritiya’ a day for GOLD?

India is probably the only country where a religious day is linked to a practice of gold buying. It is the Akshaya Tritiya festival day and we are talking tons of gold here. According to estimates, Indian consumers bought about 20 tonnes of the precious metal on this festive day in 2010. However this was much lower than the buy in 2009 due to soaring prices. India, the world's largest consumer of the yellow metal, bought some 45 tonnes of Gold in 2009. So what makes Akshaya Tritiya a day for GOLD?

For Indians buying gold is a popular activity on Akshaya Tritiya day, as it is the ultimate symbol of wealth and prosperity. This day is important to both Hindus and Jains. According to the traditional panchang Akshaya Tritiya falls on the third day (Tritiya) of the new moon of Vaishakh month (April-May) every year.

Akshaya in Sanskrit means one that ‘never diminishes’ (akshaya) and the day is believed to bring good luck and success. Hindus believe they can get lasting prosperity by buying precious metals on the day. Akshaya Tritiya is traditionally earmarked for beginning new ventures, for investing and purchasing valuables especially gold, jewellery and diamond. It is no surprise Indians buy gold on Akshaya Tritiya as it is considered very auspicious and a safe investment. It is also believed that any meaningful activity started on this day would be fruitful.

We all know that 2011 was the best performing year for gold wherein the yellow metal gave highest returns compared to all assets in it class.

Economically this day is quite productive for marketers as they cash in on the festivity to boost their sales. Marketers indulge in high voltage advertisement campaigns especially the jewellery stores. In fact people in India and overseas book jewellery in advance and take delivery on Akshaya Tritiya day. It’s a day of frenzy buying for all precious metals especially gold. Sales on Akshaya Tritiya day usually increases four to five times compared to normal days. Traditionally the preference for customers is to buy light-weight jewellery, diamond jewellery but today’s economic superpower India sees several buyers preferring diamond jewellery purchases.

India is a secular country and each religion has its own story behind the celebrating Akshaya Tritiya and buying gold on this auspicious occasion.

Let’s have a brief look at the different stories behind each celebration.

According to Hindu astrology, the entire Akshaya Tritiya day is auspicious. So there is no need to look for an auspicious time i.e. no ‘Muhurat’ required on this day. This is the only day in any year when the Sun which is the lord of the planets and Moon which is the lord of creativity are in exaltation meaning at their peak of radiance. Astrologically this is extremely auspicious. That also makes this day one of the most popular dates in Hindu calendar for marriages and partnerships.
Glance through the annals of ancient Indian heritage and one finds that on this Tritiya day of Vaishakh month many significant things of great spiritual importance happened. According to Jain legends, this day is auspicious as people from Ayodhya bought gold and jewellery to offer to their Tirthankara Rshabhdev who was the King of Ayodhya centuries ago. Jains, even today, observe long term fast to commemorate their first Tirthankara Rishabhdev and break their fast on Akshaya Tritiya day with sugar cane juice as Rishabhdeva broke his fast with that juice after 1 year.

According to the ancient Hindu religious texts like the Puranas, this day marked the beginning of the "SatyaYug" or the Golden Age - the first of the four Yugas. It is believe that on this day Lord Krishna gave Draupadi a bowl - Akshaya patara (where food came in abundance) when the Pandavas were in exile. Traditionally this third day in the bright fortnight of Vaishakh is also the day of the sixth incarnation of Lord Vishnu ~ the ‘preserving’ manifestation of God in the Hindu Trinity.

On this day of Akshaya Tritiya, Maharishi Veda Vyas along with Lord Ganesha started writing the great epic Mahabharata. It is also the day the most sacred river of the Hindus, Ganga descended to earth. On this day Sudama visited his childhood buddy Lord Krishna with a hearty gift of a handful of beaten rice (poha). The good returns (prasad) he got in return for his devotion to the Lord is a classical story told in Hindu households. On such a day associated with Lord Krishna the story of Sudama’s offering is mentioned along with Lord Krishna’s affirmation in his Holy Gita ~ “Whoever offers a leaf, a flower, a fruit or even water with devotion, that I accept, offered as it is with a loving heart “.

Thus, many are the reasons for Akshaya Tritiya to be considered a wish fulfilling day. Any worship performed or daan (donation) given on this day is considered extremely good karma. Good karma is considered meritorious and is supposed to bestow beneficial results.

Wold over, gold never seems to lose its sheen and in the domestic market it seems to glitter perpetually. And festivals like Akshaya Triritya keep adding shine to the yellow metal. And there are plenty of instrument apart from jewellery, like coins, bars and exchange traded funds (ETF) that one can invest in.

Union Budget 2019

It’s an important week for gold, both internationally and in the domestic markets. Amidst the Fed chaos, our very own budget got overshadowed.

Many suggestions have been made to the government, for the better of the Gems and Jewellery industry.

The government had increased the import duty on gold in order to narrow the trade deficit.  But in the lead to do so, unknowingly it has also led to an increase in gold smuggling. The gems and jewellery sector has sought a reduction of gold import duty to 4 percent, cut and polished diamonds and cut and polished gemstones to 2.5 percent and relaxation of credit norms for working capital requirements in the forthcoming budget.

Furthermore, elimination of CTT tax has been proposed in order to curb dabba trading.
These and many other suggestions related to import duty, taxes, infrastructure, R&D and precious stones duty has been made to the government.

The stakeholders expect that the government will accept these or at least amend the current norms in favours of everyone.

The upcoming interim Budget will likely offer a fresh push to gold schemes, laying out plans to tweak existing ones and announce new products, as earlier efforts to draw people to park their idle holdings with banks yielded little. A comprehensive gold policy is being planned.

This is an election year so it (the government) will is expected to put in more money into hands of people. There will be a big amount of spending in a short span that would be good for gold. Before the election, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government could announces measures to help the nation's farmers, the biggest buyers of gold.

Keeping the bigger picture in mind, many new suggestions have been made, such that it creates a win win situation for the government, the jewellery industry and the end consumer. 

Has the scenario changed for gold

Last week, gold prices had a chance to close at their highest since the middle of July. The fundamental backdrop was a combination of declines in the US Dollar and local front-end government bond yields. Since gold is priced in USD, a weaker greenback makes the precious metal relatively more expensive. As for the latter, when bond yields decline, the non-interest bearing asset looks comparatively more appealing.

Though markets have shown a drastic behavior in the past 10 days, things still good for gold. Though gold has been down almost 4 per cent for the year till date, last week was fairly positive for the yellow metal. No doubt equities have outperformed gold so far but any rally in gold prices and any further weakness in U.S equities will see a reverse behaviour thus gold outperforming stocks in the near future.

The Fed has already appeared to express doubts on the future pace of tightening, although the markets do not anticipate it holding off on the likely 25 basis point interest rate increase at the FOMC meeting in just over one week’s time.  Although a further sharp fall in U.S. equities in the coming week might, just, cause the Committee to change its mind.  It is likely to be under pressure from President Trump to keep interest rates, and thus the dollar, down given his tariff impositions seem to be having the effect of increasing the dollar index and, ultimately, putting up the cost of manufactured goods to the U.S. consumer.

The volatility in equities and dollar was influenced buy the ongoing trade war between China and U.S which appears to have backfired rapidly on the greenback.

The arrest in Vancouver of China’s Huawei Technology’s CFO and the company founder’s daughter in Canada has potentially inflamed the trade relations again.

In the bigger picture, The Fed is in a dilemma over a few factors that don’t fall under its control but will play an important role in the growth of the US economy which will further  influence any decision related to rate hike-

Immigration - President Donald Trump's crackdown on immigration, which translates into fewer workers, especially those willing to take lower-wage jobs, and therefore higher wages

Wage- state-level minimum wage boosts that amount to government-mandated wage inflation.
Truck driver shortage- the countrywide truck driver shortage, which has become "a major reason for all sorts of companies to raise prices  in order to make their customers eat higher shipping costs
Trade war- is the United States' trade dispute with China, further escalated this week by the arrest of the CFO of Huawei, one of China's most important companies. While Trump and China's president seemed to agree to a ceasefire over the weekend, the arrest makes the odds of a good trade deal most unlikely.

All four of these ongoing issues directly affect the Fed's policy, and that's what's putting this independent entity in a bind when it comes to planning for the year ahead and maneuvering other major, economy-altering changes like the rise of workplace automation.

The Fed is simply helpless and can’t do anything about the above mentioned trends. Just in case they won’t work in its favour then rate hike might be delayed which will surely push gold prices high.

Speculators are currently neutral for gold. They don’t believe it will dip neither they have faith in its upside potential. Though markets feel that chances if it going lower are high.
But if we see the long run, gold looks attractive.

Gold prices for the year have decline but look positive in the coming two years. A lower dollar, lower US Treasury yields, a recovery of the Chinese Yuan and higher jewellery demand will result in the upward trend.

Winter demand good for gold but prices likely to fall

Gold prices were hovering near multi-week highs for most investors outside the US Dollar and Euro on Thursday, as the Bank of England followed the Federal Reserve's widely expected "no change" decision by raising UK rates off an all-time record low as analysts and traders had forecast.
However in Friday, Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,267.01 per Ounce and touched a one-week low of $1,265.16 over positive economic data and central bank decisions.

The past week was a significant week for central banks. The Bank of England raised interest rates for the first time in ten years, the Federal Reserve indicated that a December rate hike may happen and President Trump named Powell as his choice for leader of the Federal Reserve.

But still uncertainty prevails as there is no surety that how economies will manage when the central bank support is withdrawn. Moreover none of the financial centers have managed to meet inflation targets which they were all so vocal about.

Adding to the uncertainty is the issue that three of the world’s four most important central bank chiefs are nearing the end of their terms and may be well replaced. The rally in the gold price and fall in the dollar is just the first indication with how markets feel about such changes.

Gold held steady on Monday, but hovered near a one-week low hit in the previous session, as largely upbeat U.S. economic data reinforced the prospects of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve next month.

U.S. jobs growth accelerated in October, although wage growth was tepid, adding to the Fed’s assessment last week that “the labor market has continued to strengthen”, with the sluggish wage data doing little to change expectations.

JP Morgan Chase & Co on Friday raised its forecast on the number of U.S. interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve next year to four from three as the October payrolls data reinforced the view of a tightening domestic labor market.

Markets are increasingly confident the Fed will hike interest rates in December, which has weighed on the precious metals complex,

Higher interest rates tend to boost the dollar and push bond yields up, putting pressure on gold prices by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

The Federal Reserve looks likely to raise interest rates, and that should bring up the value of the US dollar in general. If that’s the case, then gold could roll over a bit. Ultimately, this is a market that will continue to be just as mixed up as many others are right now, as we do not know with any type of certainty that the Federal Reserve is going to do one thing or the other.

Analysts said the yellow metal could also find support after U.S. President Donald Trump, who kicked off a 12-day Asia trip, looked to present a united front with Japan against North Korea.
Moreoverdemand for gold is likely to rise not only in the domestic market butinternationally too.
While we see the onset of the wedding season in India, normally winter is also a good time for gold globally with men buying their significant others jewellery for Christmas and lots of New Year’s Day marriage proposals

This rise in demand is expected tousher in renewed interest for bullion in coming week.

Importance of Dhanteras

This October calls for festive celebration as it welcome Diwali and Dhanteras. The festival of lights is preceded with Dhanteras when people throng markets to buy gold items and utensils for daily utility. But have you ever wondered why?

Today, let's get to know why Dhanteras remains the much-awaited festival among Indians and also possibly the best one for purchasing gold after Akshaya Tritiya. Dhanteras happens to fall on the first day of the five-day-long Diwali festivity. Interestingly, the festival also goes by the name 'Dhanatrayodashi' or 'Dhanvantari Trayodashi'. The word 'Dhan' means wealth and 'Trayodashi' means 13th day as per Hindu calendar. Dhanteras usually falls on a day or two before Lakshmi Puja during Diwali.

It is largely believed that on Dhanteras goddess Lakshmi visits the homes of her devotees and fulfils their wishes. It holds special significance for the business community due to the customary purchases of precious metals on this day. Also, Lord Kubera, the God of assets and wealth is also worshipped on this day.

Most Hindu families prefer purchasing gold during Diwali. Purchasing gold during Diwali is religiously significant as buying gold during Diwali is considered auspicious. The ritual of buying gold during Diwali is equivalent of inviting Lakshmi, the Goddess of wealth and prosperity at home.

Apart from jewellery, the most preferred items to purchase gold during Diwali are coins. In India, gold coins are specially moulded for Diwali with Goddess Lakshmi embossed on the front and her symbol Shri embossed at the other side of the coin. In other coins, both Goddess Lakshmi and Lord Ganesha, and optionally Goddess Saraswati, are embossed on gold coins.

Is the first day of Diwali which usually falls one or two days before Lakshmi Puja. This year we celebrate Dhanteras on 17th October and Diwali on 19th October .This festival is celebrated with lot of enthusiasm and energy. If Diwali is called Festival of rights, we can call Dhanteras the Festival of buying gold and silver. And most of the purchasers buy gold during particular Muhurat. The Muhurat (chogdiya) for this year are:


Dhanatrayodashi Muhurat to Buy Gold 

October 17, 2017 (Tuesday) - 06:26 to 24:08+

Auspicious Choghadiya timings between 06:26 to 24:08+
Morning Muhurta (Char, Labh, Amrit) = 09:17 - 13:31
Afternoon Muhurta (Shubh) = 14:56 - 16:21
Evening Muhurta (Labh) = 19:21 - 20:56
Night Muhurta (Shubh, Amrit, Char) = 22:31 - 24:08+

INVITATION FOR TIMES GLAMOUR EXHIBITION 2013 BY RSBL DIA JEWELS

WAVES OF DISAPPOINTMENT FOR THE MARKET

-By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

As we discussed last week that this week had a bundle of surprises for gold of which the US employment data was the biggest surprise. There were mixed sentiments in the market post the data release. Investors believed that the jobless claims would be much high compared to June.

Moreover Fed Chairman Bernanke's statement over the stimulus plan created even further confusion.

There was mystification in the market as the jobless claims were 326,000, below the forecast of 346,000 while the private sector ADP change in non- farm payroll came in at 200,000 well above the forecast 179,000.

A weaker-than-expected U.S. July jobs report and a fall in the dollar helped gold rebound from a drop of more than $25 an ounce during Friday’s session, but prices still marked the first weekly loss in four week.

Gold initially fell to a two week low at $1280 an ounce as encouraging US gross domestic product and factory activity data earlier in the week reduced the metal's appeal as an investment hedge.

It jumped about  2 percent from its session low after government data showed U.S. employers slowed their pace of hiring in July but the jobless rate fell anyway, easing fears that the U.S. central bank might imminently reduce its $85 billion monthly bond buy back stimulus.

Gold’s hard times have come from the view that easy money, which has weighed on the dollar and lifted gold in recent years, is going bye-bye sooner or later.

US jobs data is vital to the gold market after the US Federal Open Market Committee indicated that quantitative easing may continue until the unemployment rate falls to 6.5 percent. The Fed remains committed to purchasing $85 billion in new debt per month in an open-ended programme (QE3). Accommodative measures from the US central bank are supportive of commodity prices because extra liquidity tends to debase the dollar and create future inflationary risk.

I am optimistic over the long-term time frame. Targeting inflation, the Federal Reserve's inability to taper, and underlying problems in Europe will make sure precious metals will outperform down the stretch. The nonfarm payrolls data usually brings volatility to gold, but the metals just haven't had enough upside momentum to constitute a breakout, so till that time it will be wait and watch.

In other gold market news, China’s thirst for physical metal remains strong. Imports from Hong Kong at 105 tonnes in June were down slightly from 114 tonnes in May but this was still the fourth-biggest month on record, according to Macquarie, citing Hong Kong export data. Apparent demand from China at 835 tonnes is up more than 50 percent on last year, the broker estimates.

However demand from India has not picked up pace as there are no clarification over the RBI policies for gold and the government is trying to curb g0ld imports to rectify the CAD.

As far as the international markets are concerned, it’s going to be a light week for U.S. economic news, but globally, next week will include a few more central bank meetings including the Reserve Bank of Australia, which is expected to cut rates. The Bank of Japan is also meeting, but is not expected to make changes to monetary policy.  Chinese data slated for release include industrial production, retail sales, export data and inflation report.

Gold support is at $1,280 and $1,260. Resistance is at $1,320 and $1,340. Silver support is at $19.20 and $19.05, resistance is at $20.20 and $20.40.

In the domestic market gold is expected to move in the range of Rs.26,000 to Rs. 29,500 in the coming week.

“The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.”

- Previous blog -

"Bundle of surprises for gold"

http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2013/07/bundle-of-surprises-for-gold.html

INDIA'S FIRST EVER GOLD PLATED BIKE LAUNCHED BY RSBL DIA JEWELS!

Presenting to you India's first ever gold plated bike.

This bike is India's first fully Gold Plated bike and decorated aesthetically with diamonds. The gorgeous Huma Qureshi herself was present at the inaugration and unleashed the bike.

This bike is available for display at the Times Glamour Exhibition at Hotel Shangri- La, Lower Parel,  from 26th- 28th July from 10am - 7pm ( Stall no 18.)


“The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.”

- Previous blog -
"Bundle of surprises for gold"
http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2013/07/bundle-of-surprises-for-gold.html

BUNDLE OF SURPRISES FOR GOLD!

-By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

Currently the entire market is in a confused state of mind as far as gold is concerned.
The market has split in two parts. Some say gold will rise while the others take an opposite stand.

This week we came across some interesting figures in gold:

1. On Friday, gold was trading at $1340 - almost $160 higher than the three year low of 1179$ that it hit on June 28
2. Gold has risen consecutively for the third week until Friday and also its first three weeks rise since March.
3. On the other hand, in terms of value gold has also lost a fifth of its value as investors lost faith in gold.

Many buyers also indulged in profit-taking by cashing in from gold's Friday session high of 1340$.

Initially, Fed chairman Bernanke has stated that the Fed may scale back its $85 billion monthly bond purchases. But now there is no clarity on the timeline for this activity as he further states that scaling back of the stimulus program depends on the recovery of the US economy.

The market now digests news that Russia, Ukraine and Azerbaijan were among eight countries that increased their gold holdings in June, data from the International Monetary Fund showed, while Turkey, Germany and seven other countries shed some of their bullion.

As far as the Asian markets are considered, China's gold demand could hit a record 1,000 tonnes this year, the World Gold Council said on Thursday, which means it would overtake India as the world's biggest bullion consumer.

But investors still have a mixed basket of feelings for gold. The appetite to carry large positions overnight may decline ahead of the next crucial week of data.

The U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision on Wednesday, as will the European Central Bank and Bank of England on Thursday — and on Friday, the U.S. Labour Department will release its widely watched monthly jobs report.

Now what we have to wait and see is that whether these vital reports will pull down gold or push it up.

Demand from India has taken a setback but is now expected to rise. Monsoons play a key role for demand coming in from rural areas. Also August marks the onset of the festive and marriage season. But since the government has taken measures to curb imports, in spite of physical demand there isn’t much gold available in the market to meet the demand. 

Gold support is at $1,321 and $1,307. Resistance is at $1,340 and $1,355. Silver support is at $20.78 and $19.40, resistance is at $20.70 and $20.90.


“The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.”

- Previous blog -
  "Gold Has Found A Support"
 http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2013/07/gold-has-found-support.html

GOLD HAS FOUND A SUPPORT!!!

                                 - Mr. Prithviraj Kothari (MD, RSBL:RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

I am sure every single reader who follows Bullion market will agree when I say; this week belonged to Ben Bernanke’s statements. Bullion has slipped more than 22% this year on the Fed's hints that its monthly bond-buying program may end altogether by mid-2014.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke eased some market nerves by telling the U.S. Congress this week that the central bank's plans to scale back asset purchases later this year were not set in stone and depended on the strength of the economy.

He further stated that the U.S. central bank still expects to start scaling back bond purchases later in the year, but left open the option of changing that plan if needed. These statements were enough to support bullion prices and gold gained strength, even when the data flowing out of US has been considerably positive for the growth of economy. In July, jobless claims sharply fell by 24k thus reaching 334k. The US Philly Fed Index rose again from 12.5 in June to 19.8 in July. 

The recovery of the US economy is bound to pull down demand for gold and silver as safe haven investment option, which will then affect its prices.

I have a different perspective for the Gold price. Because of the lower gold prices now prevailing, which make many operating gold mines and projects uneconomic, we are already seeing fallout among producers with cutbacks, shutdowns and postponements.  As a result global gold production is likely to decline until there is a major pickup in the metal price.  

The lower price also discourages scrap sales which have thus been diminishing too.  Meanwhile the huge demand for physical gold seems to be continuing a pace. Russia has been the biggest gold buyer in the official sector in the past decade. A shift by central banks from major sellers of bullion to net buyers has been a major support to the gold market in recent years.

Gold took a stab at the $1,300/oz level earlier in the week, although it encountered strong resistance on approach of this level and has since sunk back lower. Gold has been receiving strong support in recent weeks from physical buying (especially from Chinese buyers); however, this physical buying is waning, and becomes especially thin on approach of $1,300/oz.

Physical demand for gold from the top consumer India remains dull due to stiff measures taken by the RBI to curb imports with a view to tackle the widening current account deficit. End of peak marriage season and weak domestic currency is also restricting buyers to be active but enduring good monsoon may provide firm support to prices later. 

According to the Indian Meteorological Department, the present state of the monsoon was 16% above a 50-year average during the June 1- July 16 period. A good monsoon brings strong harvests and given the fact that 70% of India’s Gold demand is from rural areas, should keep imports on a firm note going into year end.

Market participants were now awaiting a G20 meeting in Moscow over the weekend, which will likely focus on recent financial market volatility. Attention will then turn towards a series of crucial U.S. economic data, which analysts said will give more clues about the timing of the Fed's stimulus tapering.

Many traders and investors in Europe and North America are gearing up for their summer holidays, which could made for generally quieter, summer doldrums-type trading conditions until after the U.S. Labour Day holiday in early September.

Gold support is at $1,274 and $1,265. Resistance is at $1,305 and $1,320. Silver support is at $19.20 and $19.05, resistance is at $19.70 and $20.20. Platinum support is at $1,405 and $1,390. Resistance is at $1,418 and $1,437

In the domestic market the trade range for gold for the coming is between Rs. 26,000 to Rs. 28000 per 10 gram and for silver between Rs. 39000 to Rs. 40000 per kg.

"The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL(RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.) is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world."

~ Previous Blog: 
"Hold on to your Gold" 
 http://www.riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2013/07/hold-on-to-your-gold.html

HOLD ON TO YOUR GOLD!

-  Mr. Prithviraj Kothari (MD, RSBL:RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

Gold in the spot market was up 4.8% for the week, thus stating its biggest weekly gain since October 2011. Gold rose by 2.62% to $1280.1 on Thursday and silver also increased by 4.13% to $19.95.

The markets were moved by the U.S Fed's speech on 10th July, Bernanke spoke after the markets closed on Wednesday. He said that the US economy desires a highly accommodative monetary policy for the likely future. He also suggested that the tapering of the QE3 programme does not means that monetary policy would be tightened or the interest rates would be raised.

The FOMC minutes reviewed that many Fed governors would like to see more signs of improvement in jobs before agreeing to tapering. Both risky assets and gold reacted positively to the dovish comments by the Fed. The most recent weekly jobless claims in the U.S. unexpectedly rose by 16,000 to 360,000. 

On Friday, among other precious metals, silver fell 1.1% to $19.87 an ounce. Platinum inched down 0.1% to $1,402.99 an ounce, while palladium gained 0.1% to $716.97 an ounce. Gold pared losses after government data showed that U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in June, increasing gold's inflation-hedge appeal. 

Gold supply remains tight with current market prices now below the highest cost of production. Miners are writing down asset values and cutting back on costs. As prices move lower, it will come to a point where supply and demand economics take over.

Gold's reaction was limited after Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades said he hoped there would never be a need for the island to sell its gold reserves, an assessment stipulated in an international bailout for Cyprus.

Meantime in India – the world's heaviest gold-buying nation – the government's new campaign against household gold demand was challenged today by the jewellery industry, as well as market analysts. A number of jewellery units and workers have been idled due to the severe shortage of gold in the wake of several restrictions on the yellow metal’s import.

Imports in April and May together were a little over 300 tonnes. This fell to 38 tonnes in June. Excess imports in May gave some initial relief but that cushion is long gone.

Starting off next week, we have Chinese Q2:13 GDP data out early Monday. This number is generally not as important for precious metals as it is for other commodities. However, given that it is well known that Asian physical buying (particularly from China) has provided a crucial crutch for gold amid Fed tapering concerns, we could see a more marked reaction from precious metals than is usually the case. There is considerable risk that this number will disappoint (Bloomberg consensus: 7.6% y/y), although this time the market might not react as violently as it did in April — the market might be buoyed to some extent by hopes of stimulus, after Chinese Premier Li stated earlier this week that economic growth and employment must stay above a certain floor.

I expect gold prices to finish 2013 at around USD1,300/oz and rise mildly in 2014 and 2015. In the long term, uncertainty will continue to plague global markets as the international financial system adapts to a changing world economy. Gold will continue to play an important portfolio role for investors

"The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL(RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.) is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world."
-Previous Blog-
"Dollar Drags Down Gold" : 
 http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2013/07/dollar-drags-down-gold.html

FED'S POLICY STATMENTS – Predictable I feel?

-By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

Why did the financial world react in this manic-depressive way to a statement that was bland and predictable? Why do investors keep gambling vast sums of money in speculations on changes in monetary policy when Bernanke has tried to make crystal clear that significant changes are unlikely, at least until the end of the year? I think no one would have any clue with respect to these questions.

As always the effect on Gold is felt in a big way. Gold fell for a third straight session on Thursday after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted at reducing an $85 billion bond-buying programme, which has increased the precious metal’s appeal as a hedge against inflation. While Bernanke said the central bank needs to see further progress in the U.S. economy before the Fed scales back monetary stimulus, he also added that a decision to adjust it could come in the “next few meetings” if the economy looked set to maintain momentum. Down nearly 20 percent this year, gold could come under more selling pressure as investors increasingly price in a stimulus cut ahead of the Fed’s next policy meeting on June 18-19.

But Gold markets did manage to regain some composure yesterday. We saw a steady climb towards the $1,400/oz level until the US market opened. Some profit-taking took the US market lower, although a recovery soon took the price to a relatively stable trading range, just above $1,390/oz. The stability continued during Asian trading, with the price remaining in a very tight band of around $1,390/oz to $1,395/oz.

As pointed out earlier, I do feel that more upside for gold is in the offing. Even taking a slowing of Fed quantitative easing into account, we still feel that the environment remains supportive of a higher gold price—global liquidity should continue to grow, although maybe at a slower pace, and real long-term interest rates across the globe look set to remain low for some time still. Nevertheless, I cannot discount the investor apathy towards the metal and acknowledge that it will take some doing to restore confidence. Consequently, while I do still foresee upside for gold, these gains will most likely be hard won. The first challenge will be to push strongly past the $1,400/oz hurdle.

Physical demand remains strong in the major Gold consuming countries, where China has seen a daily increase in physical trading volumes. How tight the physical market still is, is reflected in the premium of 50 USD still paid today in Shanghai over the international price. Premiums in India started to cool off, as the weaker Rupee drove local Gold prices up and some Gold has restarted to be imported into the country, however rather sluggishly. Top gold buyer India, which had seen gold imports jump 138 percent in April, is facing a slowdown as the peak wedding season comes to an end and its central bank imposes new rules to reduce a deficit. 

There is no doubt gold is still one of the attractive assets at present as economic uncertainty is not over across the developed world. Federal Reserve has created money, but that money has not been circulated into economy as banks are still tentative to flood the market with easy money. Economists are apprehensive that when this money will be circulated, inflation may trigger in a big way. But that theory will be tested when the actual event happens.

The Fed will probably want to see six months of strong employment and at least two quarters of 3 percent gross domestic product growth before it seriously considers tightening. In the meantime, big market reactions to comments from the Fed chairman, like those Wednesday, will mostly be reversed – expensively for those investors who replace analysis with wishful thinking.

In short, there are still reasons to buy gold; there are reasons to hold gold; there are reasons not to go aggressive in investment. So, my gold may remain in a range ($1325-1550/oz) till September (German Election may be the next trigger).

“The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.”

- Previous blog -
  "Is gold losing its safe haven appeal" 
http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2013/05/is-gold-losing-its-safe-haven-appeal.html

RIDDISIDDHI BULLIONS LTD. FORAYS INTO DIAMOND JEWELLERY

Mumbai, 12th May 2013: Diamonds are said to be woman's best friend. And RSBL promises to strengthen this friendship even further.

We at RSBL, announce our foray into diamond jewellery uncer our promoed company- RSBL DIA Jewels Pvt. Ltd. and bring to you and exquisite line of jewellery collection:       

                                           Sparsh- touch of elegance 

A name to reckon with elegance shall leave you mesmerized with its intricate designs and inimitable craftsmanship. True to the essence of RSBL, RSBL DIA Jewels reflects the best what it has always been doing – “Strengthening the trust”.

Inspired by nature, this collection has a piece that engulfs ones soul. The collection comprises of 18K diamond jewellery that has pieces tailor made which suits every women’s varied moods and styles. Each masterpiece is crafted uniquely symbolizing the uniqueness that each woman carries within her. The brand promises the quality without compromise and it will always endeavor craftsmanship that's beyond comparison and at the same time maintaining the company traditions.

Sparsh – touch of elegance also has an exclusive collection designed for special occasions. Celebrate those enduring moments with its splendid pieces. Be the cynosure of all eyes on your wedding, charm everyone with your ornate jewels on your mehendi or bask in the glory of your inimitable jewels on the reception. Steal your betrothed’s heart on your engagement and relish everyone’s attention on Diwali with their unique and elegant jewels. The collection covers products like beautiful rings, pendants, ear rings, bracelets, and classy diamond sets etc. 

Keeping the design, style and quality in mind RSBL DIA jewels strictly adheres to quality and authenticity by providing certificate of purity and authenticity with each masterpiece. There would not be even a minor difference in the stated quality of diamond or gold. 

A truly unique service that Sparsh – touch of elegance will provide to its clientele is Buy back facility. It’s one of the first of its kind where a client can exchange their old jewellery of Sparsh – touch of elegance with a new one from its store.

Sparsh – touch of elegance jewellery is as inimitable as you, while the jewels are uniquely yours for these are designed especially for you. So, feel special with Sparsh – touch of elegance jewellery. With Sparsh – touch of elegance from RSBL DIA Jewels, RSBL shall continue to provide you with similar levels of service, upholding the same values and the commitment. 

I am glad that people of India now say, what is the RSBL price of Gold rather than Gold price. RSBL has strived hard to provide transparent benchmark prices for Gold. My motto has always been “Make products that meet customer needs”. Looking at the current pricing scenario of the Diamond jewellery market, I felt it is high time that we have a brand that people can trust, that provides value for money and most importantly provides transparent prices so that they can buy without any hesitation. Like Gold, diamonds have always given good returns. I am proud to bring Sparsh – touch of Elegance collection to you.

                                                   

Showroom Address: RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd, Bullion House, 115, Tambakata Lane, 2nd Floor, Opp Dagina Bazaar, Pydhonie, Mumbai - 400 003. India.

Web: http://rsbldiajewels.co.in/

IS IT TIME TO ADOPT GOLD OR ABANDON IT??

                                       -By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

Gold and silver showed mixed sentiments last week and continued to make wave like movements despite many news that did the rounds in the previous week. Mixed movements in the forex market could have resulted in the mixed movements witnessed in the commodities market so far.

Gold and Silver slightly declined on Tuesday, after the news from Cyprus that its parliament passed on the bailout plan. On the other hand, other commodities prices such as oil prices and the stock market indexes such as S&P 500 rose. The shift in market sentiment towards bullish may also have contributed to decline in demand for precious metals and other safe haven investments. 

However, On Wednesday, though gold and silver opened with a negative note, they managed to bounce back by late evening. Causing the climb was a fall in U.S. equities which made the metal more appealing as an investment. In addition, continuing euro zone fears, following developments in Italy, gave gold extra upside impetus. The speculation around Cyprus bailout plan is currently pulling down the Euro and EU stock markets. These speculations have helped rally gold and silver prices. 

The Cyprus bailout is a wake-up call to buy gold. All those who have waited long to buy gold, can now start making decisions. With Europe's unsolvable debt crisis and America's own unemployment problems wherein for the first-time jobless claims rose by 16,000 to 357,000 in the week ended March 23, the highest level in more than a month, it's only a matter of time before we witness another gold rally.

Thanks to the Federal Reserve, central banks around the world are losing trust in the U.S. dollar; which used to be the “safe haven” currency. As more countries print paper money, known as “fiat currency,” the same countries will be reluctant to hold the fiat currencies of other countries in their reserves. Gold bullion is becoming a need for central banks, and I believe central banks will buy more gold bullion, because they have to, as paper money becomes too plentiful. While central banks are buying gold bullion at a rate not seen in 49 years, the price of gold bullion has declined—actions that bring forward the question of price manipulation in the gold market. If gold prices are indeed being suppressed, which is very difficult to prove, the end result will eventually be a major breakout for gold bullion prices on the upside. 

To give you an idea, China has the biggest reserve in the world—worth more than $3.0 trillion. But compared to the gold bullion holdings of other major central banks, China is still far behind. The U.S., Germany, and Italy hold more than 70% of their reserves in gold bullion. Imagine what would happen to gold bullion prices if China even just tried to double its gold reserves. In the backdrop of the gold bullion buying spree, central banks around the world are printing paper money, working to depreciate their currencies to jumpstart exports. (Source: business2community.com)

I feel its matter of time. If things get messier for either, investors can see gold easily hitting $2,000/ounce by the end of the year.

“The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.”


- Previous blog -

"Cyprus gives gold a helping hand"

http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2013/03/cyprus-gives-gold-helping-hand.html

CYPRUS GIVES GOLD A HELPING HAND

-By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

Gold traded near a 3-1/2-week high on Friday, underpinned by safe-haven demand on the fear of a potential financial meltdown in Cyprus, which has put bullion on track for its biggest weekly rise in four months. The clock is ticking for Cyprus to come up with a solution to clinch an international bailout; otherwise it could face the collapse of its financial system and likely exit from the euro zone.  

 The Cyprus crisis has offered gold a helping hand, after investors had been pulling out of the precious metal and piling into stock markets which have rallied this year on a brighter economic outlook. The other reason for this upmove is the fact that FOMC’s decision is still active to keep policy unchanged. 

Gold traded as high as $1,608.63/oz, its first break above the $1,600/oz marker since late February, but pared its gains as a stronger U.S. dollar damped buying. On Thursday, the price of gold rose by 0.39% to $1,613.8; Silver also increased by 1.37% to $29.19

U.S. dollar gold prices continued to hover around $1610 per ounce Friday morning, dipping back below that level after making gains in Asian trading, while stocks and commodities were flat on the day ahead of a vote by Cyprus’s parliament on measures aimed at raising money and securing a bailout. 

European patience with Cyprus is running out after Cypriot lawmakers rejected a plan to tax bank deposits agreed on last weekend by the 17 euro-area finance ministers. The same finance chiefs are now considering a plan to shutter the two biggest banks in Cyprus and freeze the assets of uninsured depositors, four European officials said yesterday. European and Cypriot officials were locked in talks to find a formula to avert the Mediterranean island’s financial collapse, struggling to forge consensus on a bailout package before the European Central Bank cuts funding. Cyprus’s options narrowed on Friday after Russia spurned a bid for a loan and coalition lawmakers in Germany dismissed the Cypriot government’s latest rescue proposals. That left the troika of international creditors to hammer out fresh terms with President Nicos Anastasiades’s coalition focusing on the fate of Cyprus’s ailing banks. The ECB has said it will cut off emergency funding to Cypriot banks at the end of Monday, March 25 unless there is a deal. 

Looking ahead to early next week, Cyprus is going to remain front and centre and euro-zone confidence readings for March will also be significant next week.

Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold ETF, fell 0.902 tons from the previous session to 1,221.26 tons on March 21, the lowest since July 2011. The fund is headed for a twelfth week of outflows.  Adding to the headwind, a string of U.S. data on Thursday, including on the labour market, factory activity and home sales, pointed to a growing momentum in the U.S. economy, diminishing gold’s appeal as an investment vehicle during time of economic and political distress.

On the other hand demand from India, the world's biggest gold consumer, languished before next week's Holi festival, a period considered inauspicious for gold purchases, coinciding with the end of the financial year when traders prefer to keep low inventories.

 I am eyeing key resistance at $1,620 an ounce, a price unseen since Feb. 26. A break above that level could rekindle enthusiasm in trading. All said, Thanks to Cyprus, that gold has started glittering again!

“The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.”

- Previous blog -

"Speaker at Dubai Precious Metals Conference 2013"

http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2013/03/glad-to-be-speaker-at-dubai-precious.html

SPEAKER AT DUBAI PRECIOUS METALS CONFERENCE 2013

Dubai Multi Commodities Centre - Government of Dubai, has taken an initiative of organizing a Conference with Foretell Business Solutions: Dubai Precious Metals Conference.

Theme of the conference: Enhancing the Global Precious Metals Supply Chain

I am glad to be a part of this conference. I will be providing insights on the topic: Gold consumption giants; opportunities linking the UAE with China, India and the U.S.
1. How can the UAE strengthen its ties with India?
2. What does it take to serve the Chinese markets?
3. Going west; can Dubai explore the third largest consumption hub?    

Time & date of my Speech: 11:15 am – 12:00 noon, 7th April, 2013.
Venue: Almas Conference Centre, Almas Tower, Jumeirah Lakes Towers, Dubai      
Looking forward to see you there!                                        

For further info. kindly check: http://www.dpmc.ae/index.html

“The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.”

- Previous blog -

"0.1% VAT increase on precious metals"

http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2013/03/01-vat-increase-on-precious-metals.html

0.1% VAT INCREASE ON PRECIOUS METALS

-By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

The Maharashtra government will raise the value added tax on gold, silver, other precious metals, diamonds, and jewellery to 1.1% from 1.0% earlier, State Finance Minister Ajit Pawar said today in his budget for 2013-14 (Apr-Mar). 

The government is planning to implement GST and LBT by the end of this year. If this actually takes place, then I feel there was no such requirement for this step. The hike will directly have an effect on imports. Gold price in Maharashtra will become costlier by INR 6,000 per kg(inclusive of Octroi and additional VAT) when compared to other states. This additional cost will definitely reduce the demand for gold in Mumbai and will have a negative impact on the gem and Jewellery sector. 

Mumbai is the hub for jewelry manufacturers. All machine chain bangles are made in Mumbai  along with hand made jewellery which is made in rest of Maharashtra. This additional VAT will compel manufacturers to shift their base to other states. Hence the rate of unemployment will rise. If this tax was levied all over India, then it wouldn't have made much a difference. But since it is levied only in Maharshtra, gold here will become more expensive than other states and people will prefer to buy from other centers. We have already witnessed a shift of silver business to other states. Levy of this extra VAT will also move gold business away from Maharashtra.  It will create a major impact not only on demand but also the workers especially the small business units. The government has to take some initiative to protect the interests of workers and the entire bullion industry.

“The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.”


- Previous blog -

"Investors being loyal to gold"

http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2013/03/investors-being-loyal-to-gold.html

INVESTORS BEING LOYAL TO GOLD

-By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

Gold was set for the first back to back weekly advance since January, as investors weighed prospects for more stimulus against improving U.S. economic data. Silver, platinum and palladium headed for weekly losses.

Gold and silver moved away from the weekly gain and slightly declined on Wednesday. This decrease corresponded with the drop of leading currencies against the USD such as Euro and Aussie Dollar. The US Retail Sales report published on Tuesday also showed that economic activity in US grew as retail sales rose last month by the highest rate in months. This could be the reason behind the restrained drop in bullion prices.

The US federal budget report too stated that the fiscal deficit so far in 2013 is 15% lower than in 2012. This too is an indication for a downturn in financial risk of the US economy.

This decline in prices moves an investor away from Gold, as they do not consider gold to be a safe haven asset in such situation.

Stronger U.S. economic data like the lower Jobless claims, higher industrial production etc, recently, has lead to the selling pressure for gold. But again, it can be argued gold prices have held up fairly well in the wake of that stronger U.S. data.

Many investors still believe that there is still upward scope in gold and it is more sensible in being loyal to it. Counting quantitative easing measures in key economies and lurking risks in the euro zone are amongst the favorite reason to own gold as gold is always considered a hedge against inflation and economic distress

Looking at the Asian markets, gold demand was quite calm as most people have already made their purchases last month when gold prices dipped considerably.

However, importers now expect a rising demand for gold once the fiscal year ends and the festival of Holi onsets in India. Holi, Gudi Padwa and Akshaya Tritya are considered to be very auspicious days t buy gold and all these festivals are lined up for the month of March and April.

Bullion market participants will be watching the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week. A hawkish tone would further hurt investors' interest in gold, but Asian buyers would make purchases if prices drop near February's levels.

Till then one needs to find answers to the following

Will the Euro crisis resurface after months of blissful peace?

A positive takeaway on gold is whether the good US economic data will continue to get better after sequester?

Can central banks continue to contain inflation after the rampant money printing programme?

The current situation seems to set gold as a better alternative should all of the above negative economic sentiment resurface. Gold prices have come down considerably and left an upside gap despite all the negative sentiments it has been receiving. 

We are not gold bugs at all just a humble observer who wish to share our views on why holding some precious metals is important.

“The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.”


- Previous blog -

"Is the gold cycle about to turn???"

http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2013/03/is-gold-cycle-about-to-turn.html