by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL
Over the past few days gold has been playing touch and go with $1300 mark. It has enjoyed a recovery as it moved strongly higher off the $1275 level. In the past week, gold was seen falling sharply at the key level of $1275. In fact, before plunging, gold touched the resistance around $1313.
The market is now divided into bull versus bear market. There are some who are positive about gold and believe that gold prices will move higher while some believe that it will further enter the bear market.
Lets justify their views-
Along with this, we all see the wedding season setting in and no other metal can replace gold in the so called big fat Indian weddings. Be it jewellery, gifts or any other investment purpose, gold has always been India's first choice.
Moreover demand from rural areas is also expected to rise as India witnessed a much better monsoon than expected. The majority of India's gold demand comes from rural areas, so the monsoon weighs heavily on purchases.
Uncertain global environment:
Escalating
tensions in eastern Ukraine fuelled safe-haven demand for gold on
Thursday, offsetting upbeat U.S. data that would have otherwise pushed
the precious metal lower.
The
tensions between Russia and Ukraine and militant activity in Iraq are
keeping gold from falling back. Certainly people are concerned about the
military situation in Ukraine, Syria, and Iraq. There were news that
more than 100 Russian soldiers were killed in eastern Ukraine in a
single battle this month while helping pro-Russian separatists fight
Ukrainian troops.
Rising demand for physical gold:
Moreover,
we have seen over the past years that September is one of the best
months for gold in terms of physical demand. Over the last 20 years, the
yellow metal has seen an average gain of 3% in September.
In
India, August marks the onset of the festive season and people buy
heavily as September sets in. August 29th has marked the beginning of
the festive season with Ganesh Chaturthi and will go on till Diwali.
Ahead of this expected demand Indian jewellers and dealers will be
stocking up in the coming weeks, so it should affect prices
Along with this, we all see the wedding season setting in and no other metal can replace gold in the so called big fat Indian weddings. Be it jewellery, gifts or any other investment purpose, gold has always been India's first choice.
Moreover demand from rural areas is also expected to rise as India witnessed a much better monsoon than expected. The majority of India's gold demand comes from rural areas, so the monsoon weighs heavily on purchases.
Strengthening Dollar:
Gold has been pulled the winding down of the US QE program and a probability of rates hike. Probability that the Fed may increase its Fed- Funds rate by mid 2015 will effectively reduce gold price in dollar terms.
US economic development:
This week, important data coming in from US has clearly shown signs of a gradually strengthening economy. The U.S. gross domestic product grew at a revised annualized rate of 4.2% in the second quarter of this year.
The U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending Aug. 22 declined by 1,000 to 298,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 299,000.
A separate report showed that U.S. pending home sales increased by 3.3% last month, beating expectations for a 0.5% rise. June’s figure was revised to a 1.3% drop from a previously estimated decline of 1.1%
As we all know, any positive data coming in from US has a negative effect in gold prices as gold is pressured by the idea that if the U.S. economy has sustained improvement then the Federal Reserve will start to raise rates, once it ends its quantitative easing program.
Geo-political tensions:
Further there were news that Geo-political tensions seem to have eased out and hence, we saw gold losing its safe haven status and gold prices slipped back below $1300.
Import restrictions:
The lack of any movement to change Indian import restrictions under the new government has also been a disappointment for the gold bulls.
As we see that the market has been divided into two segments: "the bulls and the bears" and as we go through this transition we can expect to see assets outperforming expectations. The market can’t help but exceed expectations since the investors' expectations are so low at this point.
We now see what the market has been awaiting for:
Dates
|
Data expected
|
1st September:
|
The August China NBS manufacturing
PMI index and the Euro zone final manufacturing PMI
|
2nd September:
|
The U.S. August ISM manufacturing
index
|
3rd September:
|
The
preliminary Q2 GDP of the Euro zone
|
4th September:
|
The Bank of England and the ECB
interest rates decisions and announcements on 4 September
|
5th September:
|
U.S. August non-farm payrolls and
the unemployment rate
|
The market will be watching the outcomes of Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting and Friday’s U.S. August nonfarm payrolls report for gold direction. Economists are looking for ECB to take some sort of action, with a cut to interest rates likely.
TRADE RANGE
METAL
|
INTERNATIONAL
|
DOMESTIC
|
GOLD
|
$1273-
$1307 an ounce
|
Rs.
27,500- Rs. 28,500 per 10 gram
|
SILVER
|
$19.15-
$19.85 an ounce
|
Rs.
41,500- Rs. 43,500 per kg
|
The primary purpose of this article by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.
- Previous blog - "Uncertainty over Interest Rate Hike!!!"
http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2014/08/uncertainty-over-interest-rate-hike.html