Gold Expected to Drift Lower by Year End

Firstly, wishing everyone a very Happy Diwali and a Prosperous year ahead.

And indeed it was a Happy Diwali for domestic jewellers, as the slump in gold demand had finally gained momentum this October.

Demand for gold jumped in India this week on account of Dhanteras and Diwali, but high prices took some sheen off the yellow metal's lure during the key festival period this year.

Demand in the world's second largest gold consumer generally rises during the final quarter as the country welcome the festive and wedding seasons, where buying bullion is considered auspicious and propitious.

Though a lull was witnessed in gold demand during Dussehra, it significantly improved during Dhanteras and Diwali.

Gold prices spurted by Rs 290 to 3-week high of Rs 31,000 per 10 grams on the eve of Diwali at the bullion market on increased buying by local jewellers to meet festive demand.

Demand was expected to be even better, if global prices had shown similar movements. However in Asia and other international markets, gold prices were seen falling down.

CHINA - Elsewhere in Asia, there was a slight uptick in demand for physical gold, with benchmark spot gold rates headed for a weekly decline after touching a one-week low of $1,276.22 an ounce on Thursday, pressured by a firmer dollar.

However, investors remained cautious, awaiting direction on economic policy and market reforms during the 19th Communist Party Congress in China which kicked off on Wednesday and were also focused on the upcoming elections in Japan.

In top consumer China, premiums charged ranged between $8 and $12 per ounce over the benchmark this week, compared with $9-$14 a week earlier

JAPAN - Gold hit its lowest in more than two weeks on Monday as expectations that Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy would stay in place after Shinzo Abe’s election victory at the weekend lifted the dollar to a three-month high versus the yen.

Japanese Prime Minister Abe’s win also fed into positive sentiment in equity markets that were buoyed last week by fresh optimism about tax cuts in the United States, curbing interest in gold as an alternative asset.

U.S. DOLLAR & U.S. ECONOMY- Gold prices touched the lowest in more than one week on Thursday, as the dollar stood firm on rising U.S. Treasury yields, with investors focusing on who would replace Janet Yellen as the next chair of the Federal Reserve.

Financial markets are now awaiting guidance on who will succeed Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, whose term expires in February.

U.S. President Donald Trump is considering nominating Fed Governor Jerome Powell and Stanford University economist John Taylor for the central bank’s top two jobs. Powell is considered less hawkish than Taylor, who is seen advocating higher interest rates.

Moreover, the economy expanded at a modest to moderate pace in September through early October, despite the impact of hurricanes on some regions, the Fed said its latest snapshot of the U.S. economy thus hinting markets that the US economy is doing well which will further create a downward pressure on gold.

The dollar had already posted its biggest one-day gain in a month on Friday after the U.S. Senate approved a budget blueprint for the 2018 financial year, allowing Republicans to pursue a tax-cut package without Democratic support.

The dollar hit its highest in about two weeks versus the yen, supported by this week's rise in U.S. bond yields, with U.S. President Donald Trump set to make a decision in the "coming days" on Yellen, who is also one of the five candidates being considered for the job.

Higher interest rates tend to boost the dollar and push bond yields up, putting pressure on gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Tensions on the Korean peninsula, however, continue to weigh upon gold and the metal could drift down towards the $1,250 level by early December weighed down by the prospect of a further increase to U.S. interest rates in December.

September proves to be the worst month of 2017 for gold so far

September was an action-packed month, with North Korean rockets and a succession of monster hurricanes all coming at the markets almost at the same time. Not forgetting the comments coming out from the Federal Reserve that contributed to thefrenzy by giving a clear signal of a December rate hike. In the process, it perhaps single-handedly helped the dollar index recover from a three-year low hit earlier in the month.

Amid a resurgent dollar, the month of September proved to be worst for gold since November 2016. However, as geopolitical tensions soar, with the standoff between the U.S. and North Korea probably topping the list, demand for precious metals surged with Gold ETF holdings rising most since Feb 2017.

Last week, gold prices ended lower on Friday as weak U.S. consumer spending and inflation data did little to alter expectations for a third interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve this year.
The dollar has risen in recent weeks as investors grow more optimistic about the prospect for U.S. rate hikes and tax cuts that some expect to boost the U.S. economy.

Data on Friday showed that
• U.S. consumer spending barely rose in August.
• Inflation also remained sluggish with the core personal consumption expenditures price index rising 1.3% year-on-year, slowing from 1.4% in July.
• The core personal consumption expenditures price index is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and has a 2% target.

The data did little to temper rate hike bets after Yellen indicated earlier in the week that the central bank was sticking to plans for a third rate hike this year and three in 2018.

The metal recorded its biggest monthly decline so far this year in September, despite netting a quarterly rise of nearly 3 percent partly due to geopolitical tensions including North Korea’s missile tests.

The U.S. currency recorded its best week of the year on Friday, despite benign inflation data for August, as expectations that the Fed would raise interest rates again in December loomed large after Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank planned to stay on its current rate hike path.
Higher interest rates tend to boost the dollar and push bond yields up, weighing on greenback-denominated gold

The dollar’s rise paused on September 28 and 29, but was seen gaining momentum on Monday morning.

Gold slipped to its lowest in nearly seven weeks early on Monday, 2nd October as the U.S. dollar rose and equities gained, while growing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December also added to pressure.

Spot gold was down 0.3 percent at $1,274.90 an ounce by 0353 GMT, after earlier touching its lowest since mid-August at $1,273.55.

Gold prices fell in Asia on Monday as the dollar gained and the euro dropped as investors mulled the implications of the disputed referendum on Catalonia independence in Spain on the euro zone and a sentiment survey out of Japan in a thin trading day with China's markets shut for the week and holidays regionally expected to see thin flows.

Elsewhere,The Bank of Japan released its Tankan survey for the third quarter with investors focused on the large manufacturer’s index as it rose to 22, compared with an expected reading of 18.

This week, comments by Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be closely watched for further hints on the timing of the next rate hike along with Friday’s U.S. jobs report. Market watchers will be looking ahead to remarks by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on Wednesday.

Gold, silver and platinum prices continue to correct and the stronger dollar and lull in tensions over North Korea, seem to be weighing on prices. We would let the corrections run their course, but the North Korean situation is likely to escalate again at some stage, so the next rally in gold prices may not be that far away.

MARKETS REMAIN CALM FOR GOLD: RSBL

 By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL

Gold showed wave like movements this week. Beginning with a positive tick on Monday, then lowering by the middle of the week and again picking up pace on Friday, it seemed like a see saw trend for gold.

Though gold was up on Monday, it continued to remain under pressure from a Federal Reserve policy meeting that was due on 15-16 December weeks, when the US central bank was expected to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. In its last policy meeting of the year on December 15-16, the Fed was seen raising rates by a quarter of a percentage point. 

Gold has already slid 9 percent for the year, its third straight annual decline, in anticipation of a rate hike.

Gold dipped on Thursday morning in the US, with the start of US monetary policy normalization spurring the dollar.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to start to normalize US monetary policy after seven years of near-zero interest rates, lifting the federal funds rate to 0.5 percent from 0.25 percent. The policy board still sees the long-run rate at 3.5 percent and finishing next year around 1.375 percent.

After markets halted to examine the impact of the rise, the dollar gained against other major currencies and pressured the precious metals lower – the greenback was last 0.7 percent stronger at 1.0844 against the euro.

Post the FOMC meet, gold was expected to come under increased downside pressure from a stronger dollar.

Investors will now focus on the pace of future rate rises, which will be affected by the general strength of the economy and underlying inflation data.

In US data, weekly unemployment claims for were in line with forecasts at 271,000 and were below the psychologically important 300,000 mark.

The Philly Fed manufacturing index for December at -5.9 missed the predicted 2.1 while the current account for September at -$124 billion was largely as expected.

While the Fed does not expect to reach its inflation target of two percent until 2018, Chairwoman Janet Yellen said in the following press conference that current transitory factors stem from low oil prices.

After Thursdays decline, the markers expected gold to drop further. But Gold prices jumped in morning trades Friday after the dollar weakened against other currencies and as investors bought back oversold position after prices slumped to over four-month low on Thursday.

Gold prices finally found some support in the weakening dollar index following profit booking and buying at lower level. Prices of the bullion were down as dollar index weakened against other currencies, boosting investors' appetite for dollar-denominated commodities.

Gold was in positive territory on Friday morning in London after the dollar eased slightly amid growing expectations that the path to higher interest rates in the US will be a slow one.

The spot gold price was last at $1,054.9/1,055.2 per ounce, up $2.20 on Thursday’s close. Trade has ranged from $1,051.2 to $1,058.1 so far. In the previous session, the yellow metal dipped below $1,050.

Gold (and silver) rose on Friday, taking back about half of Thursday’s loss of approximately 2.00%.

Reasons behind the price rise were-

• The anxiety in equities restricting from the despair in crude prices
• A changed deliberation of a longer-term view that gold is “due” to rise because of weakening dollar strength
• Hurry to grasp snips.

In the coming days and weeks, the downside in precious metal prices may be limited due to low activity as a result of Christmas and New Year, volatility is expected to remain calm. But the year could start on a negative note for gold. Chairwoman Janet Yellen said future rate increases will be gradual and the policy could be reversed if the US economy begins to slow

In the interim, volumes are expected to shrink while market participants head to the sidelines during the holiday period, possibly resulting in choppy conditions.

The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

- Previous blog -
"Tricky Week For Gold : RSBL"
http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2015/12/tricky-week-for-gold-rsbl.html 

Gold prices Fall after hitting key resistance! - RSBL

                                                               - Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD - RSBL

Another buying opportunity or it is a one such half hearted rally? A question that is pushing investors away from the precious metals complex. I would do my best to give you an idea by starting a gist of things that took place over the week.

The above picture depicts the Gold price range for the entire week (Picture taken from RSBL SPOT terminal). The week started off from where it closed, at a doorstep of the key resistance level US$1238. In almost all my previous blogs have emphasized on this particular level, that if broken, we can expect some change in trend. But it didn't. Gold continues to oscillate around USD $1200 with initial support sitting around this level.

Last week did show us, some spectacular movement in Silver where it broke key levels to enter in the range of US$17. Like Gold it did take a beating and US$17 does act as a short term base for the Silver metal. (image taken from RSBL SPOT terminal).


Key levels do make a lot of difference when the metal prices try to change a trend. But what caused this sudden drop:

1. U.S. housing starts jumped to their highest level in nearly 7 and a half years in April and building permits soared, providing hopeful signs for US economy gaining grounds over a dismal first quarter.

2. U.S. CPI data for April showed a +0.1% increase (expected: 0.1%) to mark the third monthly increase. The core CPI too read 0.3% (expected 0.2%), the largest increase since 3-4 years.

3. One of the most prominent news coming out of the week was from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. While speaking at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce on Friday, she addressed, ".... If the economy continues to improve as I expect, I think it will be appropriate at some point this year to take the initial step to raise the Federal Funds target rate." A step to increase the rate hike is inversely proportional to gold price rise.


That goes without saying that U.S. data is highly influential for movements in precious metal complex prices as the other data that could have given a better support, weren't that influential:

1.  According to the latest CFTC data, hedge funds and money managers have hiked their net long silver stance to a near 10 month high and boosted their bullish gold bets to its biggest since March (+123k contracts, +77k prior week) for the week up to May 19.

2.  Greece cannot make debt repayments to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) next month unless it achieves a deal with creditors, its interior minister said on Sunday, the most explicit remarks yet from Athens about the likelihood of default if talks fail. European leaders told Greece on Friday to return to the negotiating table for "intensive work" to wrap up a reform agreement before cash runs out, sidestepping Athens' demand for a comprehensive, long-term solution to its troubles.

3. Iraqi forces recaptured territory from advancing Islamic State militants near the recently-fallen city of Ramadion Sunday, while in Syria the government said the Islamists had killed hundreds of people since capturing the town of Palmyra.

4. Russia's gold reserves rose to 40.1 million troy ounces as of May 1 compared with 39.8 million ounces a month earlier, the central bank said on Wednesday.

On the domestic front,  India could allow individuals deposit a minimum of 30 grams of gold with banks in return for interest payments to help monetize large quantities of the metal lying with households, a step that is aimed at cutting expensive imports. India released a draft documents of gold monetization plan on Tuesday.


Looking at the price jump from Silver, it does look a strong price comeback for me. I have always asked my readers to be invested in Silver. A metal that has multiple functionality.

With the FED meeting round the corner at Greek debt payment on June 5th, a lot more lies for the price movements in precious metals. Still the range play continues and strong conviction from Bears and Bulls is lacking.

It was a memorial day in US and spring bank holiday in UK, due to which price movements were muted yesterday.

TRADE RANGE:

METAL	INTERNATIONAL	DOMESTIC
GOLD	$1194 - $1238 an ounce	Rs.26,700 - Rs.28, 500 per 10g
SILVER	$16.70 - $18.00 an ounce	Rs.38,500 - Rs.42,000 per kg

The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.”

- Previous blog - RSBL: GOLD CONTINUES TO RISE!
http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2015/05/rsbl-gold-continues-to-rise_17.html

UNCERTAINTY OVER INTEREST RATE HIKE !!!

by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL

From December 2008, to September 2011, Bullion futures more than doubled to a life time high of $1,923.70 an ounce. Gold prices sky rocketed as the Fed purchased debt and cut rates to an all-time low to spur economic growth. 

This year, gold bounced once again after its downfall in 2013. 

The metal rose 6.1 percent this year , partly as unrest in Ukraine and the Middle East increased haven demand.

This week investors eagerly waited for the minutes of the FOMC meeting that were to be released n Wednesday and the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Thursday and Friday that was expected to bring in some volatility in the market.  Apart from this many economic reports were slated to release-

• CPI
• Housing figures 
• Philly fed index from the U.S
• BOE rate decision and CPI from Great Britain
• Japan’s trade balance
• China's manufacturing PMI
• Retail sales and CPI from Canada.

Let's have a look at the data released from these reports

• U.S. home resale's raced to a 10-month high in July 
• Six straight months of payroll growth over 200,000 jobs per month — the first time that’s happened since before the Great Recession in 2007!  
• There were signs of a strengthening economy as the  number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell last week
• On Thursday, data released showed that the Business growth in China and across Europe slowed this month
• But U.S. activity picked up speed, leaving a mixed picture of global economic growth.  

This week , gold was mainly hovering around the interest rate news. The entire investment market- be it stock, bond, currency or commodities, is presently pre occupied with the only one question- When will the first interest rate increase happen? 

A positive economic growth from the US economy and an expectation for an early rate hike is expected to pull prices down.

Many researchers are expecting that the forecasting the U.S. central bank to raise rates in mid-2015 but some economists believe that it may happen much earlier.

A slowing world economy on one hand and a strengthening US economy on the other, is giving mixed reactions from the market. Uncertainty prevails and investor anxiety is on the rise. This means there will be higher movement for gold and silver.

It all depends on whether each new piece of economic data is inflationary or deflationary in nature

Though the market has been linked to rising interest rates, some say that it won't have a less negative impact on gold moving forward.

In fact now all eyes are headed towards inflation - a major driver for gold prices.

There is still some uncertainty over inflation because of the unprecedented steps the Fed has taken. Inflation along with rising interest rates will have an impact on gold. 

There are various key influential factors that will provide good support to gold -

• Rising interest rates could halt the free-flow of capital into the record-breaking equity markets and compel investors to take a more self-protective position. 
• A decline in supply  from mining and recycling sector on one hand and rising demand on the other will  raise a spark in gold prices. Also supportive for the gold market is an expected decline in supply, both from mining and recycling.

On Thursday, gold posted its steepest decline in over a month as investors left the market ahead of Friday's speech by Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen . Gold fell to a two month low this week after the minutes of the Feds last meeting were released and it showed signs that policy makers may raise interest rates earliest than expected.  But Fed Chairman Janet Yellen also stated in a conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming that “underutilization of labour resources still remains significant.

The debate now is about "when" to raise the interest rates. Any hike in these rates would diminish the sentiment to own gold. Gold produces no income and struggles to compete with interest-bearing investments such as Treasury bonds and bank deposits, whose yields will rise once market interest rates turn up. At the same time, signs that crisis in Ukraine and the Middle East are having a limited impact on global growth also have reduced demand for gold as a haven.

The Pentagon on Friday condemned the movement of a Russian convoy into eastern Ukraine, calling it a violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and demanding that it be withdrawn and failure of which would result in additional costs and isolation.

The world economy  is being pulled by the tug-of-war being held between the forces of inflation and deflation

In any case, all eyes are headed towards the FOMC meeting in September, which will also have a press conference and could be the one, in which FOMC chairman Yellen offers some more information regarding the next rate hike. The current estimates range mostly between the end of the first quarter of 2015 and the end of the second quarter.

TRADE RANGE-

METAL	INTERNATIONAL	DOMESTIC
GOLD	$1264- $1297 an ounce	Rs. 27,800- Rs. 28,500 per 10 gram
SILVER	$19.00- $19.75 an ounce	Rs. 41,500- Rs. 43,000 per kg

The primary purpose of this article by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

- Previous blog -

"The Sentiments Are Bearish For Gold"

http://www.riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2014/08/the-sentiments-are-bearish-for-gold.html

GOLD AND SILVER ON A SWING

by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL

Last year investors sent bullion tumbling by the most in three decades which they kept dumping the metal recently.  But gold has once again become a valuable commodity. Demand for gold is increasing and prices are defying bearish forecasts.

Gold has proved that the bearish sentiment in the market was indeed just a thought and gold's performance this year has proved it. 

US economy is on the path of recovery and it is clearly visible from the recent government data that was released. Prices are speculated to retreat by the end of the year and inflation concerns along with pockets of unrest are sending investors into gold as a safe haven.

Violence spread in the Ukraine and Iraq and the Fed's reservations that it will keep interest rates near record lowed has kept gold prices high.

The gold and silver market heated up last week after they didn’t do much in the previous week. The minutes of the FOMC meeting may have partly contributed to the rally of precious metals by the end of last week: The minutes revealed the FOMC may keep the interest rates for a long time until the inflation start to pick up towards the Fed’s target of 2%. This dovish tone may have sparked another rally of gold and silver. 

During last week, the price of gold increased by 1.27%; the average price reached $1,326.88/t. oz which was 0.21% above last week’s average. 

The FOMC dovish policy is getting gold and silver back and is boosting up their prices too.

Moreover, if the Chinese economy doesn't show much progress, it will play a secondary role in impacting the bullion market. But on the other hand if the US economy moves on the path of recovery then it will pull up equities and curb down the rally of gold and silver.

Short term concerns over inflation and the ongoing geopolitical turmoil in many parts of the world has been the main reason behind pushing gold prices high. 

Gold was once again on the see saw this week. As the week began, gold fell sharply. On Monday, gold witnessed on profit taking after reaching the highest level since March in the previous week and ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s congressional testimony. 

There was a rally in gold prices on Thursday, over the tragic plane crash incident and a pickup in hostilities in the Israeli-Hamas conflict.

On Thursday, The Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur was "blown out of the sky", by a ground launched missile killing nearly 300 people aboard and sharply raising the stakes in a conflict between Kiev and pro-Moscow rebels that has set Russia and the West at daggers drawn.

The blame game , cranked up global pressure which created a way for a local conflict.

Ukraine's state security chief accused two Russian military intelligence officers of involvement with pro-Russian rebels in the downing of a Malaysian airliner on Thursday, releasing chilling testimony of what he called an "inhuman crime."

This incident kept gold over $1300. Gold for August delivery, the most actively traded contract, jumped $7.50 or 0.6 percent to close at $1,309.40 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday. Gold for August delivery scaled an intraday high of $1,325.50 and a low of $1,305.00 an ounce.

But by Friday, gold pulled back from the knee-jerk reaction. The safe-haven benefits for gold faded on Friday, with the precious metal dropping in electronic trading, as a lack of physical follow-through made that upward move unsustainable.

Moreover, SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold backed exchange traded fund, said its holdings fell 2.69 tonnes to 803.34 tonnes on Thursday.

But the yellow metal is still down nearly 2 per cent for the week, following a six week winning line over fears as Portugal financial crisis faded and investors worry about a sooner than expected hike in US interest rates

Even if U.S. rates don’t change before the second quarter of next year, the upside potential for gold over the medium term will remain capped and we may see some price pressure in the back of speculative selling, 

Next week’s economic reports are fairly light, with consumer price index data and existing home sales due out Tuesday, new home sales on Thursday and durable goods orders on Friday.

Still, gold markets will continue to watch geopolitical events, especially ahead of the weekend, which could produce more headlines out of Russia and Ukraine over the downed jet and the Middle East, where Israel has launched a ground offensive in Gaza.

METAL	INTERNATIONAL	DOMESTIC
GOLD	$1292-$1328 per ounce	Rs.27,500-Rs.29,000 per 10 gram
SILVER	$20.45-$21.70 per ounce	Rs.44,000-Rs. 47,000 per kg

The primary purpose of this article by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.
- Previous blog -
"Precious Metals.....Indeed Precious"
http://www.riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2014/07/precious-metalsindeed-precious.html

Iraq to Ukraine - Safe haven boost!

- by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL

All that was written about Gold about the next downfall, proved incorrect till date. Safe haven buying returned lying a Torpedo which took out all the possible resistance levels. Silver proved that it is always the best ally of Gold and moved at a much faster pace than Gold.

Gold saw a very good recovery internationally and in the domestic markets last week. The main reason behind this upward movement of gold and silver prices was the ongoing Geo political crisis in Iraq and Ukraine. Gold has always been considered as a safe haven assets in times of crisis. Moreover, the equities market have been trading near record levels and have reached a saturation point. 

On Tuesday, we saw the economic data coming in from US. Though the crisis in the Middle East was escalating, the attention was towards the two day policy meeting of the Fed where it was expected to further taper US bond purchases. Gold edged lower on Tuesday, backing away from the previous session's three-week highs as a stronger dollar and possible thawing of Middle East-West tensions quelled appetite for safe-haven assets. Consumer prices reading were high which further raised the belief that the Federal Reserve was headed for more monetary tightening and it so did by announcing a further $ 10 billion reduction in QE3 programme.

There was no rush to hedge in the precious metal either after weaker U.S. home construction numbers for May indicated a softer economy in general. The Fed cut its U.S. growth forecast for 2014 from 2.9 percent to a range of between 2.1 percent and 2.3 percent, but it also expressed confidence that the U.S. economic recovery was on track.

As the Federal Reserve showed lack of commitment to lift interest rates and as the tensions in the Middle East continued to escalate, we saw gold surging over 3 per cent on Thursday. This gain has been its best in the past eight months.

Bullion hit its highest level in more than two months. Silver jumped as much as 5 percent, while platinum and palladium also climbed as new hurdles emerged to settling South Africa's mining strike.  

Gold edged lower on Friday as investors took profits after it posted its biggest daily rise in nine months, but was still set for its biggest weekly gain in four months due to conflict in Iraq and a softer dollar after the Federal Reserve's comments. 

As we all know, The key factor that has driven gold prices high is the current Middle East crisis and the Ukraine crises. Militants have routed Baghdad's army and seized the north of the country in the past week, threatening to dismember Iraq and unleash all-out sectarian warfare with no regard for national borders. U.S. and Iranian officials discussed the crisis in Iraq on the sidelines of separate negotiations about the Iranian nuclear programme in Vienna. The news says US President is sending as many as 300 US military advisers to assist the Iraqi Army. 

Fighting flared between Ukraine and pro-Moscow separatist forces, further straining a unilateral ceasefire declared by Ukraine as Russian president Vladimir Putin pressed Kiev to talk to the rebels. When gold is driven by geopolitical news, there's a tendency that this has to keep getting worse for gold to improve.

Moreover there are few data releases from US which the market players believe will be positive and prompt the USD to appreciate. Looking at the above scenario we might see gold prices may though initially rise which eventually likely to turn down. 

There is a possibility that the euro currency may also continue to depreciate which basically ECB wants so as to manage inflation and economic growth in the country. So any further decline in the euro currency might prompt USD to advance and by which may cap gold’s upmove.

These sorts of news are enough to shudder the market up and down. On a technical note, earlier I felt that the resistance near $1285 breaching which it might fuel to $1300 mark. Now the same levels would act as key support regions in short-term. 

Gold has gained momentum much more than expected and may not rise substantially in the coming week as the overall trend remains down till the world economies are improving due to unprecedented stimulus packages offered by central banks across the work to support their currencies. 

To top that I also feel that gold prices in the domestic market will get further support out of a minor depreciation of the rupee. hence I think buying on dips would be advised.

Gold is expected to range between $1277 - $1340 in the international market and Rs.27,500 - Rs.29,500 in the domestic market.

While silver is expected to range between $20.00 - $21.30 and Rs.43,500- Rs.47,000 in the international and domestic markets respectively.

  

- Previous blog -

"Safe Haven Buying Returns- Gold in Picture"

http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2014/06/safe-haven-buying-returns-gold-in.html

MODIfying India

-By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

Firstly, heartiest congratulations to Mr. Narendra Modi on his historic win. It was a time for celebration for entire India. messages, jokes, headlines etc were exchanged as Mr. Narendra Modi enjoyed a momentous win in the worlds largest democracy.

As India welcomes its most awaited PM with open arms, we saw Mr. Modi's effect extending across all assets class.

Friday at the prospect of a stable government led by Mr. Modi, whose own state, Gujarat, prospered under his leadership. stocks and the rupee jumped on optimism that Modi will make good on campaign promises to create jobs and attract foreign investment in all sectors except for multi-brand retail.

Indian rupee also benefited, strengthening to an 11-month high of 58.63 rupees to the U.S. dollar Friday. and Sensex sky rocketed at 25,000 (1400 points up.) while results were still being out.

This appreciation of the rupees pushed bullion prices down.

Gold and silver tumbled terribly on Friday. Though in the international market gold was at a weekly gain, in India , the prices declined as the rupee strengthened. Gold plunged almost 350 rupees and silver was down 825 rupees on the commodities exchange. Meanwhile, in the international market gold was playing a different move.

After dropping more than 1 percent on Wednesday, spot gold prices gained on Thursday as investors digested comments by Federal Reserve chair person that central banks are in no rush to reduce the size of its balance sheet. 

The yellow metal was also supported by escalation of geo-political tensions as pro-Moscow separatists in eastern Ukraine ignored a call by Russian President Vladimir Putin to postpone a referendum on self-rule, a move that could lead to war. However, comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's that the bank may act to stem falling inflation at its June meeting knocked the euro and the strength in dollar capped sharp gains in prices.

Gold prices fell on Thursday on positive US unemployment claims data which weakened the precious metals complex while dollar strength added to the bearish sentiments.

Stronger growth is expected post the poor winter growth. backed up by data this week showing strong housing starts and an uptick in consumer prices, might move up the Fed's plans for raising benchmark interest rates from near zero.

Half of the sates in US now have unemployment rates below 6 per cent. This figure shows that the jobs market in US is improving but at a slow pace. While employers in 39 states added jobs, we see that hiring too is picking up well.

On Friday, Gold saw slight gains in Asia before it fell to $1291.95  and then bounced back to $1296.09 in the next four hours of trade, but it then dropped to a new session low of $1288.02 after  housing data was released and the yellow metal ended with a loss of 0.19%.  Silver slipped to as low as $19.271 and ended with a loss of 0.62%.

The Economy

Report	For	Reading	Expected	Previous
Housing Starts	Apr	1072K	975K	947K
Building Permits	Apr	1080K	1008K	1000K
Michigan Sentiment	May	81.8	84.5	84.1

Source- http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1400271241.php

For now, the gold market’s key drivers are, first and foremost, the flow of U.S. economic indicators as they affect expectations about prospective Federal Reserve monetary policy . . . and, second, of a more temporary nature, the ebb and flow of geopolitical anxieties arising from events in and around Ukraine.

Now that India has formed  a stable government and that the world picture is minutely fading and getting clear, market players are once again expected a rally in gold prices.

Reasons Being- 

Import duty reforms in India- The his morning, for example, as I write the news has come through that India’s ruling Congress party has conceded defeat in the world’s biggest democratic election to Narendra Modi’s BJP which may even win enough votes to take power on its own without its coalition partners. The BJP is thought to be more sympathetic to gold and could repeal, or reduce, the import restrictions that have led to India falling from first place as the world’s biggest gold consumer. 

This will lead to a rise in demand for gold from India which in turn will push gold prices high.

Physical Demand- Demand for gold from China is also expected to provide support for gold. This factor will give gold a wild card entry into the bulls market. over the next three to five years the demand from Asia and, also from Central Banks which have been buying gold rather than selling it over the past couple of years, will actually be sufficient to drive the gold price higher.

U.S. Economy- Many traders expect the US economy to deteriorate further which will compel the Fed to rethink about its policy prospects. The recent statistical improvement in the U.S. economy is little more than a bounce back from the past winter’s weather-induced economic chill. 

As a more realistic view of economic prospects takes hold, the financial markets will re-assess expectations of Fed policy – and this could be the catalyst triggering a resumption of gold’s long-term bull market. 

At the same time, equities are due for a setback – perhaps mild, more likely not so gentle. Either way, the competition for investment funds between equities and gold – a competition that equities have won in recent years – will shift increasingly toward bullion

when we expect to see a deterioration in the economic indicators and a reassessment of Fed policy prospects.

De- Dollarization- Russia is actively pushing on with plans to put the US dollar in the rear-view mirror and replace it with a dollar-free system. Or, as it is called in Russia, a “de-dollarized” world.

Russian Ministry of Finance wants to reduce the share of dollar denominated transactions and is hence ready to green light a plan to radically in the role of Russian ruble in export operations. Dollar will then be replaced by gold. This too will give a support to gold prices.

Geo-political tensions in Russia-  as we all know, tensions in Russia can escalate any moment thus increase the chances of a war. Any spark in the geo-political crisis in Russia will shoot up gold prices.

Meanwhile, gold is expected to range between $1272 to $1310 in the international market and Rs. 28,000- Rs.29,000 in the domestic market. 

On the other hand silver is expected to range between $18.80-$20.00 and Rs.40,000- Rs.42,500 in the international and domestic markets respectively.

The primary purpose of this blog (Prithviraj Kothari's view on Bullion Markets - MD, RSBL(Riddisiddhi Bullions Ltd.)) is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

- Previous blog- "Gold on a see-saw"

http://www.riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2014/05/gold-on-see-saw.html