Gold is here to stay

Gold was set for a decline last week over strong economic growth numbers. Last week, gold fell ahead of first-quarter earnings season as the dollar gained while the precious metal slumped to its lowest level of the month. Gold fell 1.23 percent at the close of Thursday’s trading session to settle at a price of $1.295.15. Nonetheless, analysts maintain that this is only a temporary setback.

Although equities are doing their part to weigh on gold in the near-term, it is just part of the story. Relative and resilient strength in the U.S. dollar is another factor weighing on the precious metal.

Gold was pulled down over strong economic numbers coming in from the Chinese economy-

• China’s economy expanded more than expected in the first quarter of 2019
• While industrial output and retail sales for March were also better than expected.
• Trade and credit data that came out last Friday also exceeded forecasts

Strong numbers coming in from China, imply that a global slowdown has been diminished to quite some extent. Furthermore, according to the minutes published at its last Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Federal Reserve did leave open the possibility of possible rate hikes this year if the economic data suggests warranting such a move. This, of course, wouldn’t bode well for gold.
The minutes confirmed that if the economic data continue to support the economy, a rate hike could be on the table at the back end of this year. Luckily for the dollar bears, this wasn’t the majority view, at least, not for the time being.

Does this mean the gold will soon lose its sheen?

Well, gold is being supported by ongoing geopolitical issues (U.S.-China trade war and Brexit, among others), concerns around slowing global economic growth and recession fears, and a more dovish U.S. Federal Reserve (no rate hikes in 2019).
Though many investors are shunning gold and shifting focus to equities, there is a set of market analysts that still believe that gold needs to be added in ones portfolio as its gives an insurance cover.

A crisis is expected and it’s soon we realise that one needs to protect his/her finances in times of crisis. And which metal can best prove to be a safe haven asset other than gold?
Gold had faced a similar situation in 2011. Gold was widely ignored since 2011 as an asset class for institutional portfolios. In 2018, bullish sentiment for gold was at a multi year low. Not many people were interested in owning gold.

But then investors realised that they need to own gold in order to protect themselves in times of crisis.

Given the current situation and what is expected in the near future, we can say that gold is here to stay. Even though equities are rising, the momentum won’t sustain in the long run. Fed is not expected to hike rates in 2019. Less hikes and a rate cut would translate to dollar weakness–an open path for strength in gold. Other headwinds include increasing concerns of slowing global economic growth, which could spur a move to safe havens like gold.

And hence this is a very good time for people to get a little bit more defensive and use gold to reserve the wealth they have made in equities.

Gold remains positive but lacks direction

Gold prices were modestly high last week reacting over a mixed bag of economic reports and geopolitical events. The yellow metal has been able to furnish gains over slightly weak US dollar.

GOLD PRICES rose against a falling US Dollar on Friday, halving last week's 1.9% drop to trade back above $1220 per ounce as Western stock markets fell and crude oil rallied from this month's 17% plunge so far.

Gold prices ended higher on Thursday, shaking off pressure from a stronger dollar to hold on to a week-to-date gain as U.S. and European equities declined.

Tumbling equities market, plunging oil prices, escalating worries about stresses in the global economy, ongoing trade tensions and uncertain growth projections have created a rally in gold prices. 

Let have look at these mixed bags -

BREXIT - The issues around Brexit have invigorated a little bit of safe-haven buying in the precious metals market. In the past week, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May had two of her cabinet members resign Thursday, including her Brexit secretary, following May’s pronouncement Wednesday that she is sticking with her controversial Brexit plan. The British pound sunk on the news of the resignations, while European bond yields rose. Talks of a no confidence vote for May were also doing the rounds. This led to some safe haven buying in gold though it did not create that much an impact on the world marketplace.

DOLLAR - while the U.S. dollar remains the strongest and most consistent factor for gold, it’s likely that correlations with other asset classes will begin to strengthen and re-emerge over the next 6-12 months and thus reassert themselves in gold’s favour. Furthermore, the marketplace took note of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments at a speech late Wednesday that the Fed is closely monitoring the modest deceleration in world economic growth. However, Powell implied that situation is not now altering the Fed’s monetary policy tenor of continuing to slowly raise U.S. interest rates. Powell added that a further U.S. stock market selloff could impact the Fed’s policy decisions. Any further weakness in the dollar due to Feds decisions will pull gold prices high.

EURO ZONE CRISIS - Crisis and uncertainty continue to prevail in Europe, where Italy is locking horns with the EU and a Brexit deal hangs in the balance, mega-economy Germany has just produced the worst growth in nearly six years. Even if Wall Street can successfully shake off noise from the Old Country, a fresh threat from falling oil prices, along with worries over trade and a Fed misstep may cast long shadows

EQUITIES - Currently equities don’t belong to anyone and it appears to be in no-man’s-land. Gold and silver are seeing a bit of support as the U.S. stock indexes have backed down and might fall further. Any stronger stock market selling pressure surfacing in the near future would likely more significantly benefit gold and silver prices.

What we see from the above explanations is that the markets are now moving focus from dollar to geopolitical events.

But one notable interesting thing we see coming in is from China. China has developed tremendously in recent years. But what’s next? Is the country entering the growth recession? And how it will affect the world and the gold market?

Indeed, at the turn of this century, China was a minor player in this market. While today it is both the world’s largest consumer and producer of gold, accounting for 23% of total gold demand and 13% of total gold supply. However, there are still opportunities for further development, as the investor base is too narrow, while the market infrastructure and regulations need to improve.

So far, the Chinese authorities have postponed the inevitable slowdown. But it will arrive one day. Given the economy’s massive leverage, the growth recession is likely to cause a financial crisis, which would hit the whole world. Gold should shine, then. The problem is that nobody knows when it will happen.

While we remain positive on gold prices going toward and into 2019, gold still seems to lack clear price directionality for the time being.

Investors mantra - Stay Calm

Gold has lost around $30/oz. in less than one week as the US dollar charge continues. Last week’s FOMC meeting confirmed that US interest rates will continue to climb this year and next, while the Democrats’ victory in the House of Representatives is being taken as a USD positive so far, as it makes US President Trump more accountable for his actions. The precious metal was also unable to pick up a risk-off bid after US and Asian stock markets crumbled overnight on tech - mainly due to Apple - and worries that US-China trade wars may escalate.

Apart from the above mentioned acts, the way things are going- default concerns and inflation expectations are rather low by historical standards. As a result, financial markets could take a hard hit if investors ever wake up and demand a higher price for accepting credit and/or inflation risk. Such a scenario could make holding gold a particularly interesting option.

The recent weakness in gold is not over. In fact, we are worried about another leg down getting underway. While some believe that gold is moving to the bears there are some players in the market who still believe that gold prices will rally in the near future. Long term investors and speculation are making a shift from a bear to a bull market. Their belief is strongly supported by a few factors which these market players expected to occur soon-

• First and foremost, the current gold price does not seem to be high and there is a lot of scope for recovery till it reaches its all time high
• In a risk-on scenario, there is a good chance that the gold price will move up
• Bargain hunting and weakness in equities, such as the sharp fall in U.S. stock market on are helping put a floor under gold during the metal’s recent slide. The fact that gold has not fallen further “is probably due to the correction on the stock markets, which has made gold attractive as an alternative investment
• Oiling of gold reserves is a clear indicator that central banks do not want to be dollar dependent. A gold driven economy will definitely raise the demand for the yellow metal and furthermore its prices.
• Gold is the only financial asset that’s not simultaneously somebody else’s liability. Hence the liking for this metal always remains high.
• With uncertain world financial assets, there’s an excellent chance there’s going to be a volatile markets and hopefully a one that favors gold.

Currently we see investors acting very calm in the market. Maybe they await a strong and concrete signal from the global markets to get back into action mode.

Gold caught between Rally and Rebounce

Gold headed for a weekly decline as we saw prices dropping over strengthening U.S dollar.

Gold prices nudged lower on Thursday, with investors taking profits after gains of nearly 1 percent in the previous session on weaker U.S. economic data and concerns among some Federal Reserve policymakers over lower inflation.

Gold had surged higher on Wednesday, buoyed by the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) concerns about persistent low inflation which saw the dollar slide.

The dollar suffered its biggest drop in five months on Wednesday after minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's showed"many participants" were concerned inflation would stay below the bank's 2 percent target for longer than expected.     

The greenback was still nursing losses on Thursday,supporting dollar-priced gold by making it cheaper for non-U.S.investors.

Spot gold was 0.1 percent lower at $1,290.82 perounce by 1313 GMT on Thursday. Gold still needs that one boost to achieve a support price of $1325 an ounce.

Trading was lighter than usual on Thursday, with Japanese financial markets shut for a public holiday while U.S. markets would be closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

In wider markets, Chinese stocks suffered their biggest fall in almost two years, weighing on global equities, denting risk appetite and providing underlying support for gold, seen as a safe haven asset.           

With Chinese stocks down, low yielding currencies such asthe Japanese yen and the Swiss franc remained firmly supportedagainst the dollar.

Earlier in the week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen stuck by herprediction that U.S. inflation would soon rebound, but offeredan unusually strong caveat that she was "very uncertain" aboutthis and open to the possibility that prices could remain lowfor years to come.

After nearly a decade of pumping up the US and global markets, Janet Yellen and team are now starting to show some concern for financial market prices. The FOMC is concerned that they are getting out of hand and are a danger to the US economy.

The minutes of the Fed’s October meeting show that the committee is largely optimistic about the US economy:

“In their discussion of the economic situation and the outlook, meeting participants agreed that information received since the FOMC met in September indicated that the labor market had continued to strengthen and that economic activity had been rising at a solid rate despite hurricane-related disruptions.”

Currently the yellow metal is caught in the middle strong influential factors leaving markets perplexed over a rally or rebound in its movements.

Gold, silver and platinum prices have found bases and look set to remain range bound for now. The lack of any immediate geopolitical tension over North Korea has reduced the need for haven demand. With equities still generally upbeat, the opportunity cost of holding bullion is high, but the fact precious metals prices are not trending lower given the strength in equities is noteworthy. The weaker dollar should help underpin firmer precious metals prices.

Financial history revels that majorly investors would see to traditional financial systems to gain complete benefit of uncertainties. That would show through in traditional assets like shares and fixed income with benefit shifting to those markets that are not perceived to depend on the sanctity of governments and corporations that are prone to excess and can readily find their correlation surge ‘to one’ in the event of heavy market movement.

 This talking point seems to be born out of the skepticism that has arisen through the excessive stimulus and maintenance of extremely low interest rates by the world’s largest central banks.

Gold would also be sympathetic to such a view as the historic, accessible and regulated alternative asset. I think the lack of relationship is due to the premise of the theme rather than a systemic change in Gold’s nature. Either way, we will see this contrast resolved in the weeks ahead.

Gold and Silver prices on RISE: RSBL

                                                                                      - Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD RSBL

Precious metals price rise is eminent and it ended the week on a positive note post poor US data released. The negative data sent the dollar tumbling, stimulating a good recovery for the yellow metal and its white counterparts.

Data released from the US was as follows:

• GDP data out of the U.S. disappointed on Friday, growing at a seasonally and inflation adjusted +1.2% during Q2 (exp: +2.5%) as business inventories contracted for the first time since Q3 2011
• The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped to 90.0 in July (exp: 90.2) from 93.5 in June as both current and future conditions declined.
• The poor data countered the Fed’s statement that the US economy is stable and the near-term outlook is positive. Even though the unemployment rate is around five percent, the policy-board has been ineffective at spurring inflation or consistent wage growth. All eyes were on this meeting as something crucial was expected to happen regarding the interest rate hike. But negative data has postponed this hike and this gave gold the push. 

Apart from the US there was news that came in from other economies which affected the gold price: 

U.S Dollar:

Major downturn in the dollar created by the release of second quarter US GDP where it plummeted to 95.38 around the lowest mark since mid-June, before staging a modest uptick to 95.60.

Japan:

Host of new data releases and a Bank of Japan decision to inject further stimulus, markets were directionless this week with volatility and volumes continuing to drift lower. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to adopt a minor adjustment to the existing monetary policy by increasing its purchases of exchange-traded stock funds to 6 trillion yen and expanded its dollar lending programme to $24 billion but kept its policy rate unchanged at -0.1 percent while maintaining the pace of government bond purchases.

The BOJ certainly doubled purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and said it will “conduct a thorough assessment of the effects of negative interest rates and its massive asset-buying program in September.”

The bank was considering a $265 billion package, part of which would target low-income citizens in another attempt to boost inflation and weak wage growth.

This can be understood as- either the central bank may feel that Japan’s economic growth needs very, very extensive stimulation and they have yet to formulate an appropriate plan or it can be interested that they want to see how the chips fall in eight weeks and move cautiously from there.

India:

Coming to the domestic markets- India being one of the largest consumers of gold, but currently the demand for gold isn’t intense. Frankly speaking, very few people want to invest in gold at this price. Buyers, it seems, feel that the current price is not sustainable and hence, they wait for a correction. Gold price in India is governed by two major factors: global economic conditions and the movement of rupee against the dollar. Both factors have contributed to the current price rise. While global economic conditions continue to pose a greater risk by the day following fluctuating recovery trend in the United States, Britain’s exit from the European Union (BREXIT) and other geopolitical tensions. On the other hand, Indian rupee has depreciated against the greenback despite reports of good inflow of dollars.

Since BREXIT, spot gold price jumped rapidly but, stayed elevated. Also, rainy season is considered as a lean period for gold purchase due to the lack of festivals, weddings or any other occasions during this season. Also, consumers have faced two subsequent years of deficient monsoon rainfalls. Although, the current year has seen normal rainfalls yet its distribution continues to remain uneven. Also, the crucial rainfall month – August – is yet to come. So, let’s keep our fingers crossed for the Kharif sowing and harvesting this year. In case of normal monsoon and its even distribution, Kharif crop would bring some cheers for farmers with higher output which would translate proportionate increase in gold demand.

In India, therefore, standard gold is available at Rs. 31,300 per 10 grams approx. Gold price may touch $1400 in near future in the international markets which will translate in rupee term at Rs. 32,500 per 10 grams. While the uptrend continues there could be some profit booking.

Thank You!

You may follow me on:

• Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/prithviraj.kothari
• Twitter: https://twitter.com/prithvirajrsbl
• Website: http://www.rsbl.co.in/
• YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/PrithvirajKothari
• Google+: http://www.google.com/+PrithvirajKothari

The primary purpose of this article by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

Previous blog:

Consolidation phase for Gold and Silver Prices: RSBL - http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2016/07/consolidation-phase-for-gold-and-silver.html

Photo courtesy: Google 

Consolidation phase for Gold and Silver Prices: RSBL

                                                                           - Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD RSBL

BREXIT, FED, Dollar and many other key influential factors have proved to be beneficial for Gold and Silver prices in 2016. Last week too we saw many such factors influencing bullion prices but in the downward side. Let’s take a close look on the key highlights:

• The S&P (US Stock exchange) posted a fresh all-time closing high and the major U.S. stock averages 2,163.24 locked in a fourth successive winning week following the Brexit vote.
• At the weekends G20 summit in China, the world's biggest economies noted they will work to support global growth and share the benefits of trade, in a meeting dominated by the impact of Britain's exit from Europe and fears of rising protectionism. Philip Hammond, Britain's new finance minister, said the uncertainty about Brexit would begin to abate once Britain laid out a vision for a future relationship with Europe, which could become clearer later this year.
• On Thursday, 21^st July , in Frankfurt, the European Central Bank (ECB) and President Mario Draghi decided to leave rates unchanged after the Brexit-induced market shockwaves have faded somewhat. Draghi and his fellow central bankers gave no indication that the current 1.7 trillion-euro quantitative-easing plan needed to be increased following the UK vote to leave the single market. The council doesn’t meet again till September, but investors aren’t anticipating any adjustment to the bond-buying programme in the near-term thus leaving the door open to more policy stimulus, highlighting "great" uncertainty and abundant risks to the economic outlook.

Though bullion has benefited from the loose policy decisions coming in from central banks of Europe and Japan, but on the other side the dollar has gained on strong U.S. data, boosting bets the Fed will raise U.S. rates by year-end.

Globally, gold nearly fell to $1,312 and silver to USD 19.46. Traders attributed the fall in gold prices to a weak global trend where the precious metal headed for its first back-to-back weekly decline since May as gains in equities and the dollar ate into demand for the metal as a storage value. Few other important indicators that contributed to the downfall:

• Data released from the U.S. showed that U.S home resale’s hit their highest in nearly 9 and a half years in June as low interest rates lured first-time buyers into the market and the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week, underscoring the economy's strength.     
• Adding to the down trend in prices were the figures released by SPDR. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.22 percent to 963.14 tonnes on Thursday.

I do feel that the Price action will likely be skewed to the downside and expect to test the post-Brexit low around USD $1,305 and below this USD $1,300 should global equities continue their upward trajectory.

The Jackson Hole Symposium Aug. 25-27, where Yellen is scheduled to speak is where we will most likely get more relevant information about coming Fed policy and the next direction.

Thank You!

You may follow me on:

• Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/prithviraj.kothari
• Twitter: https://twitter.com/prithvirajrsbl
• Website: http://www.rsbl.co.in/
• YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/PrithvirajKothari
• Google+: http://www.google.com/+PrithvirajKothari

The primary purpose of this article by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

Previous blog:

Gold prices to go up: RSBL - http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2016/07/gold-prices-to-go-up-rsbl.html

Photo courtesy: Google

Bullish direction of Gold and Silver prices: RSBL

                                                                       - Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD RSBL

Gold has once again proved its worth and claims to be the best performing asset of 2016, emerging from a three-year bear market. The yellow metal has gained almost 26% since 1 January, the best half-year performance since 1980, Bloomberg data showed. Silver, following gold, rose 30% in the first six months, leaving other assets such as the US and German bonds, Japanese yen and the US dollar far behind.

The flight to safe haven assets triggered by global political and economic uncertainty has made bullion the year’s most preferred investment, with gold and silver beating other asset classes by a mile.

The past four sessions following the Brexit vote saw gold prices spike about 6%, while silver advanced about 5%. Gold has definitely benefited from the Brexit incident, but there have been reasons more than one that this yellow metal has once again has got into limelight.

Global economic uncertainty, slower growth in China, accommodative monetary policy of the major central banks and weakness in dollar earlier this year had prompted investments into safe haven assets like gold and silver.

Global Uncertainty:

The market continues to benefit from safe-haven investment flows in the wake of the UK vote to exit the EU, which has led to heightened uncertainty over global economic prospects and increased risk aversion.

Dollar:

Strength in the US dollar was the major contributor to weakness in gold and commodity prices for the past few years. However, increasing uncertainty about economic and political developments, low-to-negative interest rate environment as well as doubts over global economic recovery post the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 have led to demand for precious metals, analysts said.

China:

Economic slowdown of the Chinese economy has raised questions over the global growth and development. These concerns have put an upward pressure on gold. 

Monetary Policy:

The current economic backdrop, along with fading prospects of an interest rate hike by the US Fed at least till December validates further march of bullion on the upwards trajectory over medium-term.

Contradicting these prospects, the Jobs report released pulled gold prices down but not significantly. The report stated that in June, 287,000 Americans entered the labour market, far exceeding expectations of 174,000 while average hourly earnings period ticked up 0.1 percent, below the forecast 0.2 percent.

Still, the unemployment rate rose to 4.9 percent from 4.8 percent after the May figure was revised down to 11,000 jobs from what was already a multi-year low of 38,000. The June employment figure had gained greater significance following the disappointing May report, which suggested the US recovery was beginning to slow after seven years of expansion.

It was a session marked by extreme volatility on Friday with gold experiencing a $35 range and silver $1.00, with NFP's driving price action. The prices send a solid signal for the Gold price to move beyond $1400 in short to medium term.

Further supporting gold was the Chinese gold reserves figures. It stated that China's gold reserves stood at 58.62 million fine troy ounces at the end of June, up from 58.14 million at the end of May, the central bank said on Thursday. Such a stock up already appears to be in motion for the gold stocks.

Given these supporting factors for safe haven metals, investors have engaged themselves into purchases of gold and silver and this is further giving and upward thrust to precious metals.

Thank You!

You may follow me on:

• Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/prithviraj.kothari
• Twitter: https://twitter.com/prithvirajrsbl
• Website: http://www.rsbl.co.in/
• YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/PrithvirajKothari
• Google+: http://www.google.com/+PrithvirajKothari

The primary purpose of this article by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

Previous blog:

Sharp increase in Silver prices: RSBL - http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2016/07/sharp-increase-in-silver-prices-rsbl.html

Photo courtesy: Google

RSBL launches RSBL SPOT APP – Live Gold, Silver, Platinum prices at your Fingertips!

                                                   By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL

To know the price of Gold or Silver coin, a common man of India faces ever intriguing questions whether is this best price available in the market? Is the Jeweller charging me more? Will I get a better deal from some other Jeweller? If the price is fixed, the questions arises, Are the goods pure? Can I trust the brand?

Questions, Questions and only Questions to invest in what you love, trust and depend in the times of uncertainty i.e. Gold & Silver. To solve these questions, RSBL is glad to launch RSBL SPOT app on iPhone and Android compatible phones for one and all. A unique app that gives a user an access to Gold, Silver and Platinum live transparent benchmark prices across India!

RSBL SPOT is spread over 18 centers across India and the RSBL SPOT app user would get benchmark two way Buy/Sell quotes of more than 40 Symbols of Gold, Silver and Platinum which includes coin prices too across Indian markets. An app that gives an investor an edge while investing in Gold, Silver or Platinum.

Other special functions:

1. Live international Gold and Silver prices.
2. Gold Symbols with 995 or 999 purity in various denominations while Silver symbols available in 999 purity
3. Live rates on home screen via Widget (Android compatible phones only), even when the app is closed.
4. By registering yourself for free, you can insert price alerts. 
5. Live charts
6. News updates on Bullion industry, 
7. Blogs, 
8. Economic Calendar
9. Videos and so on.

Attaching some screenshots:

RSBL SPOT 

Home Screen

Symbols can be added/removed

Can be used even when RSBL SPOT
 app is closed

Live News

Economic Calendar

RSBL Spot is India’s leading platform for online physical bullion and coins sales with delivery centres spread across the country. RSBL Spot prices are transparent, two-way and continuous. They are the benchmark prices for majority of dealing by all jewellers.

RSBL Spot has revolutionized the bullion trading system in the spot market and is done at par convenience. Its objective is to maintain and improve its market leadership in providing customers with the most effective prices for dealing and physical delivery of gold and silver.

RSBL SPOT app comes with features that are never seen before! Make the most of this opportunity! 


Follow us on:

  Website:  http://www.rsblspot.co.in/
LinkedIn:  https://www.linkedin.com/company/riddisiddhi-bullions-limted
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/RiddiSiddhiBullionsLimited
    Twitter: https://twitter.com/prithvirajrsbl
  Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/user/PrithvirajKothari
        Blog: http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/

RSBL: Gold & Silver prices rise

                                                                           By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL

Last week we saw gold prices setting to 15 month high on Friday.

This surge in prices was influence by nervous stock markets which raised gold’s safe haven demand. Currently A confluence of monetary and financial factors is supporting gold prices.

A solidly lower U.S. dollar index that hit an eight-month low Friday and Nymex crude oil prices that notched a five-month high are bullish "outside market" forces that are also propelling gold and silver prices higher.

On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve continued its historically low nominal interest rates and didn’t signal to markets that another rate hike was forthcoming. We saw increased uncertainty in the markets on Thursday, one day after the Fed’s policy statement came out, but the Fed’s reflections had little to do with the market movements.

While in the US, unemployment claims hit a 42-year low of 247,000, which easily beat the 257,000 forecast. But US GDP increased by a 0.5-percent annual rate in the first quarter, the slowest pace since the first quarter of 2014 and below the 0.7-percent consensus estimate.

This paradox of a strong jobs market with tepid GDP growth has put the Federal Reserve in a bind. In its April statement released, the Fed decided to maintain near-zero interest rates despite noting that global risks had eased over the last several weeks.

Investors aren’t expecting the Fed to raise rates anytime soon with a majority of investors citing December as the most likely time for the Fed to rise rates again, according to the CME Group Fed Watch.

Additionally, the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) shocked markets Wednesday by deciding to keep its monetary policy unchanged.

Now what needs to be watched is the action coming in for gold from the sidelined factors. Moreover what needs to be assessed is how the dollar will behave this week since currency continues to be the predominant driver in most commodity markets for the moment.

Thank You!

You may follow me on:

      Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/prithviraj.kothari
         Twitter: https://twitter.com/prithvirajrsbl
        Website: http://www.rsbl.co.in/
        YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/PrithvirajKothari
       Google+: http://www.google.com/+PrithvirajKothari


The primary purpose of this article by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

- Previous blog -
 "BEST QUARTER FOR BULLION SINCE THREE DECADES: RSBL"
http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2016/04/best-quarter-for-bullion-since-three.html

Photo courtesy: Google search

Brussels explosion and Gold's Safe haven appeal: RSBL

                                                              By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL

As I was about to publish this blog, Brussels was rocked by multiple explosions that left many dead and wounded. My heartfelt condolences to their families in these challenging times of despair! 

Gold is known for its safe haven appeal and the same has been proven once again. A quick rise of nearly US$20 proved that traders and investors would flock behind Gold to protect themselves from unknown strikes and calamities. 

Hourly price rise of Gold_220316 - RSBL SPOT terminal

Moreover since the Global downturn, the precious metal has risen by nearly 13-month high.

I did mention in my last blog that I do expect some corrections before the next up move and we all witnessed the same before the FED meeting. The FED meeting on Wednesday did conclude that the global risks pose a threat to the US economic recovery.

The U.S. central bank held interest rates steady on Wednesday and indicated it would tighten policy this year, but fresh projections offered by the Fed showed policymakers expect two quarter-point increases by year-end, half the number forecast in December. Expectations that the Fed would raise rates steadily this year had faded since the bank's initial hike in December, as concerns about global growth roiled financial markets.

It decided to scale back the number of planned rate rises this year to two from four, which initially spurred the precious metal to a one-week high while bond yields and the dollar fell and equities made up some lost ground.

Spot gold was down 0.31 percent at $1,253.99 an ounce during Fridays trading hours though the yellow metal closed on a positive side and was up around 0.4 percent on the week. Gold edged down on Friday, as the dollar steadied above a five-month low, but the metal remained on track for a weekly gain after the Federal Reserve scaled down rate hike expectations.

Inflation is a very important economic number that the FED is watching closely. Until it is below their target of 2%, there won’t be much room for FED with the rate hike policy. Unemployment, according to FED is back on track. 

Commitment of Traders report that was realized on Friday, showed Gold and Silver ETFs have seen continued interest and strong buying has been the trend. Gold holdings increased by 915’000 ounces in just two days, while Silver added 3 Mio. ounces as per the report.

With the Easter holiday around the corner, buying interest would mute from here on until further developments on the Brussels’ incidence. 

A support of $1230 and a resistance of $1270 do play strong price levels for Gold’s next move while Silver price levels would be supported by $15.20 and a key resistance of $16.70.

Thank You!

You may follow me on:

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/prithviraj.kothari
Twitter: https://twitter.com/prithvirajrsbl
Website: http://www.rsbl.co.in/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/PrithvirajKothari
Google+ URL: http://www.google.com/+PrithvirajKothari


The primary purpose of this article by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

 - Previous blog -
"Renewed confidence in Gold and Silver: RSBL"
http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2016/03/renewed-confidence-in-gold-and-silver.html

Photo courtesy: Google search