Pages

RSBL Gold Silver Bars/Coins

Showing posts with label us fed. Show all posts
Showing posts with label us fed. Show all posts

Wednesday 4 May 2016

RSBL: Gold & Silver prices rise

                                                                           By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL



Last week we saw gold prices setting to 15 month high on Friday.

This surge in prices was influence by nervous stock markets which raised gold’s safe haven demand. Currently A confluence of monetary and financial factors is supporting gold prices.

A solidly lower U.S. dollar index that hit an eight-month low Friday and Nymex crude oil prices that notched a five-month high are bullish "outside market" forces that are also propelling gold and silver prices higher.

On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve continued its historically low nominal interest rates and didn’t signal to markets that another rate hike was forthcoming. We saw increased uncertainty in the markets on Thursday, one day after the Fed’s policy statement came out, but the Fed’s reflections had little to do with the market movements.

While in the US, unemployment claims hit a 42-year low of 247,000, which easily beat the 257,000 forecast. But US GDP increased by a 0.5-percent annual rate in the first quarter, the slowest pace since the first quarter of 2014 and below the 0.7-percent consensus estimate.

This paradox of a strong jobs market with tepid GDP growth has put the Federal Reserve in a bind. In its April statement released, the Fed decided to maintain near-zero interest rates despite noting that global risks had eased over the last several weeks.

Investors aren’t expecting the Fed to raise rates anytime soon with a majority of investors citing December as the most likely time for the Fed to rise rates again, according to the CME Group Fed Watch.

Additionally, the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) shocked markets Wednesday by deciding to keep its monetary policy unchanged.

Now what needs to be watched is the action coming in for gold from the sidelined factors. Moreover what needs to be assessed is how the dollar will behave this week since currency continues to be the predominant driver in most commodity markets for the moment.


Thank You!
You may follow me on:

      Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/prithviraj.kothari
         Twitter: https://twitter.com/prithvirajrsbl
        Website: http://www.rsbl.co.in/
        YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/PrithvirajKothari
       Google+: http://www.google.com/+PrithvirajKothari


The primary purpose of this article by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

- Previous blog -

 "BEST QUARTER FOR BULLION SINCE THREE DECADES: RSBL"
http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2016/04/best-quarter-for-bullion-since-three.html


Photo courtesy: Google search

Friday 1 January 2016

Mr. PRITHVIRAJ KOTHARI (MD, RSBL) MAKES GOLD PRICE PREDICTION FOR THE YEAR 2016



(Brief details are given below. For full detail, view the embedded You Tube video) 


Link to the video: https://youtu.be/0vUYZf9M1RQ




QUESTION 1: After 2 consecutive years of negative returns, what is your Gold Price Forecast for 2016?
Prithviraj Kothari: I do agree that since couple of years there is a downward trajectory with respect to Gold prices, since it had been increasing for almost 11 odd years. But according to me a range of $1050 - $1070 an oz is the cost to the mines to procure Gold. Looking at that figure, I find it difficult for the price to go below this range. I see an increase to the extent of 7% to 8% compared to last year in the year 2016.

QUESTION 2: How will it translate in the Rupee term?
Prithviraj Kothari: In rupee term, gold price may hover between Rs 24,000 and Rs 30,000 per 10 grams.

QUESTION 3: What impact do you envisage on gold following the US Fed’s interest rate hike?
Prithviraj Kothari: A 25 bps interest rate hike after a decade in 2015 followed by four such hikes in 2016 by the US Fed has already been factored in with the price of Gold. If you see the price of Gold eventually appreciated when the rate hike took place. A bottom line could be $1000 to $1050 at the most in the line with the mining costs.

QUESTION 4: What impact do you see of high import duty on gold import into India?
Prithviraj Kothari: Indian population is around 125 crore with consumption less than 1gram, bringing import figure to 850-900 tons. With present import duty of 10%, it has created big gap between International price and Indian price. This import duty almost comes to INR 250,000 per kilo. Usually, import of gold has been in the range of 800 to 900 tons per year. Last year gold smuggling was around 200 tons. The increased price gap may give rise to increase in gold malpractices.



QUESTION 5: Do you see any impact of Government related Gold schemes? Would they be beneficial?
Prithviraj Kothari: I am positive with government efforts & schemes. Gold Monetization and Gold Sovereign Bond schemes are good. Gold Monetization scheme will be worthwhile, if it can draw 1000 tons or even 500 tons of gold from temples, public etc. will also have impact on international price. It should happen gradually.

QUESTION 6: India’s gold import has been diverted towards Dore. Would it really help gold jewellery industry at large?
Prithviraj Kothari: It depends on import. Dore import is processed in limited refineries to manufacture pure gold. These refineries import Dore at $2 lower. Those jewelers will be benefited by $3 to 4, who make ornaments by buying gold from refineries.

QUESTION 7: What is your final take on ending of 2015 and 2016 soon to begin?
Prithviraj Kothari: 2016 will be good for the trade. It may create bullion history and it may be ‘Golden Period’ for all traders.



Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/prithviraj.kothari
Twitter: https://twitter.com/prithvirajrsbl
Blogger: http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/
RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.(RSBL) http://www.rsbl.co.in/
Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/user/PrithvirajKothari
Google+ URL : http://www.google.com/+PrithvirajKothari