AN ACTION PACKED DECEMBER: RSBL

By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL

Gold prices appear to have found a base either side of the $1,250 per ounce, basis spot, with prices now getting some lift and silver prices are well placed to challenge recent resistance $17.78 per ounce

On Friday, 21st October,  San Francisco Fed President John Williams said at a mortgage conference that "it makes sense to get back to a pace of gradual rate increases, preferably sooner rather than later." His comments followed recent hawkish talk from central bank officials including New York Fed Chief William Dudley and Fed's vice chair Stanley Fischer, which prompted investors to price in an interest rate increase this year. 

The main concern currently is the conflicting scenario between Fed officials like Fischer and Dudley who have been signalling a rate hike before the end of the year, while the ECB has arguably signalled a likely extension of its asset purchases.

The ECB kept interest rates at historic lows last Thursday, and its President Mario Draghi kept the door open for more stimuli, effectively quashing any speculation that the bank was poised to taper its 1.7 trillion euro asset-buying programme.

Being only a few days before the U.S. presidential election, many analysts are not expecting the Federal Reserve to take any concrete steps.

However, expectations for a December move jump to 75%, the highest it has been all year as we see all the action happening in December.

As we head into what has seasonally been the best time of year for the sector, here are a few possible major data release that could influenced gold prices during coming months.

November 4th: The Non-farm Payrolls Report (NFP) for October will be released on this date. The gold sector usually sells off into this report and becomes very volatile after the release as trades are set beforehand based on the expected number of jobs created. This is a highly anticipated report as the results will be heavily factored into the Fed’s decision process of whether or not to raise interest rates in December. The market is factoring in a 70% chance of a quarter point raise on December 14th as of this post.

November 8th: The US election could very well be a major promoter as during the last Presidential Debate, Donald Trump made accusations of the election possibly being rigged against him. He has also stated if defeated, he will not commit to accepting the outcome, stating “I will tell you at the time”. This is a very dangerous statement and could easily trigger violence after the outcome. Also, if victorious, the decision could very well cause a “Brexit” type response in the gold sector as Trump is the anti-establishment candidate. 

December 2nd: The release of the final NFP report before the highly anticipated last Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year will be released . This could possibly be the deciding factor on whether or not Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen decides to raise rates this year.

December 14th: On this date the market will finally find out the answer to the question of, “will she, or won’t she”. If the Fed decides to raise rates at the conclusion of the December 13-14 FOMC meeting, the gold sector could initially sell off as it did last December. This could be a buying opportunity as rising rates have historically been bullish for gold as we saw back in the late 1970’s when former Fed chair Paul Volcker raised rates to over 20%. During this time gold had the largest bull market in history as it soared from $105 in September, 1976 to $850 in January, 1980. Also, in December of last year after 7 years of zero rates, the Fed finally decided to raise rates a quarter point. 

There are a lot of major U.S. reports coming and if the data is positive then there is no reason why the U.S. dollar can’t go higher and that could hurt gold. So as the world waits the month of December for its Christmas Celebration, the financial markets await the same month as a lot of action is bound to take place.

The primary purpose of this article by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

Previous blog:

"Gold Crashed But Lands Safely: RSBL"

http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2016/10/gold-crashes-but-lands-safely-rsbl.html

AN ACTION PACKED DECEMBER: RSBL

By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL

Gold prices appear to have found a base either side of the $1,250 per ounce, basis spot, with prices now getting some lift and silver prices are well placed to challenge recent resistance $17.78 per ounce

On Friday, 21st October,  San Francisco Fed President John Williams said at a mortgage conference that "it makes sense to get back to a pace of gradual rate increases, preferably sooner rather than later." His comments followed recent hawkish talk from central bank officials including New York Fed Chief William Dudley and Fed's vice chair Stanley Fischer, which prompted investors to price in an interest rate increase this year. 

The main concern currently is the conflicting scenario between Fed officials like Fischer and Dudley who have been signalling a rate hike before the end of the year, while the ECB has arguably signalled a likely extension of its asset purchases.

The ECB kept interest rates at historic lows last Thursday, and its President Mario Draghi kept the door open for more stimuli, effectively quashing any speculation that the bank was poised to taper its 1.7 trillion euro asset-buying programme.

Being only a few days before the U.S. presidential election, many analysts are not expecting the Federal Reserve to take any concrete steps.

However, expectations for a December move jump to 75%, the highest it has been all year as we see all the action happening in December.

As we head into what has seasonally been the best time of year for the sector, here are a few possible major data release that could influenced gold prices during coming months.

November 4th: The Non-farm Payrolls Report (NFP) for October will be released on this date. The gold sector usually sells off into this report and becomes very volatile after the release as trades are set beforehand based on the expected number of jobs created. This is a highly anticipated report as the results will be heavily factored into the Fed’s decision process of whether or not to raise interest rates in December. The market is factoring in a 70% chance of a quarter point raise on December 14th as of this post.

November 8th: The US election could very well be a major promoter as during the last Presidential Debate, Donald Trump made accusations of the election possibly being rigged against him. He has also stated if defeated, he will not commit to accepting the outcome, stating “I will tell you at the time”. This is a very dangerous statement and could easily trigger violence after the outcome. Also, if victorious, the decision could very well cause a “Brexit” type response in the gold sector as Trump is the anti-establishment candidate. 

December 2nd: The release of the final NFP report before the highly anticipated last Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year will be released . This could possibly be the deciding factor on whether or not Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen decides to raise rates this year.

December 14th: On this date the market will finally find out the answer to the question of, “will she, or won’t she”. If the Fed decides to raise rates at the conclusion of the December 13-14 FOMC meeting, the gold sector could initially sell off as it did last December. This could be a buying opportunity as rising rates have historically been bullish for gold as we saw back in the late 1970’s when former Fed chair Paul Volcker raised rates to over 20%. During this time gold had the largest bull market in history as it soared from $105 in September, 1976 to $850 in January, 1980. Also, in December of last year after 7 years of zero rates, the Fed finally decided to raise rates a quarter point. 

There are a lot of major U.S. reports coming and if the data is positive then there is no reason why the U.S. dollar can’t go higher and that could hurt gold. So as the world waits the month of December for its Christmas Celebration, the financial markets await the same month as a lot of action is bound to take place.

The primary purpose of this article by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

Previous blog:

"Gold Crashed But Lands Safely: RSBL"

http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2016/10/gold-crashes-but-lands-safely-rsbl.html

GOLD BOUNCES BACK: RSBL

 By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari,MD, RSBL

Christmas seems to have come in early for gold as it finished the week on a strong note, ending a six-week losing streak and bouncing off a fresh 5 and-a-half year low.

After hitting a 5.5-year low earlier this week, Gold prices prepared to end Friday's session on a very upbeat note, with the metal up 2% during the day.

The magic move happened despite a relatively in-line November jobs report that all strengthened the expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates after its monetary policy meeting December 16.

Gold’s rally started in earnest Friday, following the release of November’s nonfarm payrolls report, which was relatively in line with expectations.

Because expectations of a rate hike are close to fully priced into the markets, many investors and traders are starting to doubt whether the U.S. dollar can move higher under current market conditions, prompting them to take profits in their long U.S. dollar positions.

Good news for gold also came in when the Euro rebounded over the announcement of a minimum cut in its deposit rate over the disappointing market by the European Central. The central bank eased its monetary policy, dropping its deposit rate to negative 0.30% from negative 0.20% on Thursday.

The rebound in the euro, following the ECB’s monetary easing that was less than expected, pushed the dollar index down to 97.59, last at 98.30 and that seems to be helping to underpin the metals.

Markets eagerly awaited the US employment report that is likely to be the next directional influence on the dollar and markets generally. 

The gold prices recovered after falling to fresh five-and-a-half year lows during Thursday morning trading after Asian participants reacted to the strong US job data from the previous session.  

Spot gold was indicated $1,053.20/1,053.50 per ounce, down $0.80 from Wednesday and off its session low of $1,046.40, its lowest since February 2010 – market participants largely expect the US FOMC to increase interest rates this month. 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, on Friday,  said 211,000 jobs were created in November, down from October’s upwardly revised number of 298,000; September's employment report was also revised higher to 145,000, from the previous report of 137,000. The report noted that 35,000 more jobs were added in the previous two months as a result of the revisions.

According to consensus estimates, economists were expecting to see job gains of 200,000.

Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 218,000 per month. As expected the unemployment rate held steady at 5.0% last month; at the same time the participation rate was little changed at 62.5%.

As anticipated the U.S. labor market cooled off a little in November after seeing immense gains in the previous month; however, the job growth still managed to slightly beat outlooks, according to the latest employment data from the Labor Department.

It was one of last few data releases before the Federal Reserve meets in two weeks to decide whether to raise interest rates and these reports will play a significant role for the same.

This raises expectation that the Fed has a go ahead signal to increase interest rates on December 16 as long as other things remain steady globally over the next few weeks.

Yellen has been adamant about raising rates before the year concludes, citing concerns over an expedited tightening cycle if the policy-board waits until 2016.

With another two weeks to go before the Federal Open Market Committee meets to discuss raising rates for the first time since 2006 the market remains focused on the expected positive impact such a move might have on the dollar together with the subsequent negative gold impact. Taking a look at the past four rate hikes we actually find that instead of rising, the dollar has weakened in the weeks and months following the first announcement. 

While this time round may be different considering the expected diverging trajectories of the ECB and FOMC it nevertheless raises the risk of a correction both on dollar longs and gold shorts. Not least considering the big jump in positioning seen in both markets during November.  

The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

- Previous blog -
"Critical Week For Gold: RSBL"
http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2015/11/critical-week-for-gold-rsbl.html 

Sovereign Gold Bonds Scheme by India & FED Rate Hike - Timing Matters: RSBL!

- Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, Managing Director, RSBL

Rather than talking about International Bullion, I am glad to put forward the decision of Government of India, in consultation with Reserve Bank of India (RBI), to issue Sovereign Gold Bonds. A welcome move by Government of India, after their announcement during the Budget. The best part of this is:

1. The investors will be compensated at a fixed rate of 2.75% per annum payable semi-annually on the initial value of investment. This a good interest rate that their offering as compared to the policy that they issued a decade back. For Indians who purchase Gold with a traditional respect can now get a chance to earn a fixed interest rate along with the benefit of Price appreciation.
2. Minimum permissible investment will be 2 units (i.e. 2 grams of gold. With already a wave of new bank accounts being opened due to Jan Dhan Yojna, this minimum permissible investment gives an added advantage to reach the masses who can invest as low as 2 grams.

My personal feeling is that the scheme would be a huge success with the financial, safety implications that have been covered in alternative to holding physical gold at home.

I am sure Sovereign Gold Bonds shall raise a new chapter in Indian Bullion Industry.

As mentioned in my previous Blogs, Gold is still a sell on rallies. The physiological level s US$1200 is yet to be broken convincingly if we talk about it on a technical front. Fundamentally, lower the price the better the buying opportunity.

The data dependent week for gold finished in the prices in red as investor sentiment eroded due to uncertainty in US monetary policy.

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) chose not to increase the federal funds rate but it did remove the prior concern over global growth and volatility. This was largely interpreted in the market as hawkish, signaling higher rates from the Federal Open Market Committee’s December 15-16 meeting.

I do feel that you would be a bit confused that if FED is not increasing the interest rates, it is good signs for Bullion as the safe heaven appeal rises due to uncertainties in economy. But the December meeting is the most anticipated one. There has been growth in US economy and as the FED says it has been moderately paced. But they cannot go on throughout their time with negative interest rates. The timing is crucial and that is where the whole delay is. So the rates increase has already priced in Gold poor show. The spot gold price was last at $1,1141.40/1,141.90 per ounce, down $5.70 on Thursday’s close. Silver prices followed the Gold fall where the last recorded price was $15.57/15.62.

RSBL SPOT Gold Price

Some of the important data released this week weren’t meeting the expectation of FED:

1. A Negative Advance GDP q/q print of 1.5% instead of 1.6% was a small hiccup for US economy.
2. CB consumer confidence in US showed a gloomy picture of 97.6 instead of 102.5
3. Core Durable Goods Orders m/m for US posted a negative performance too of -0.4% instead of 0.0%

US data releases between now and mid-December will be viewed as crucial but a major obstacle for the US central bank’ policy-setting board will be a key few who believe inflation should reach – or at least approach – the Fed’s target of two percent before a lift-off. Though a part of the FOMC wants to hold off until 2016, Fed chair Janet Yellen has said repeatedly she would prefer to rise the federal funds rate this year despite poor inflation and the tepid US economic recovery.

A rate hike this December would weigh on gold and given the recent gains in positioning could mean a deeper correction than would have been otherwise. A drop in gold prices would mean a good buying opportunity for physical buyers in China who need to stock up for the Lunar New Year festivities. Though the festival falls in the second half of February, people might advance their purchases if a dip in gold prices is witnessed.

Investors will now, desperately, await the December meeting for a potential normalization of monetary policy. Expectations in financial markets about a possible rate hike by the Fed this year are low, but a Fed rate hike is not completely priced out yet.

US data releases between now and the December 16 FOMC meeting will likely be very important as market participants try to gauge the health of the economy and whether or not a potential move in December would be justified. The Fed is ‘data dependent’ and there shall be a great deal of new information that shall be released between now and the December meeting, much of which shall have to turn for the better if the Fed is going to act

Technical Range for Gold price and Silver price next week:

METAL	International price range	Domestic price range
Gold	$1126 - $1177 per ounce	INR 26100 – INR 27000 per 10gm
Silver	$14.47 - $16.20 per ounce	INR 35200 – INR 38500 per Kg

The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

- Previous blog -
" GOLD LOSES DIRECTION: RSBL"
http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2015/10/gold-loses-direction-rsbl.html