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Showing posts with label price range. Show all posts
Showing posts with label price range. Show all posts

Sunday 22 February 2015

PRE-BUDGET VIEWS AND SUGGESTIONS



    FDI in Indian Bullion Industry is the key to Growth 


                                                                        by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD – RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.
 






The most discussed topic of this month is the "Budget" and how it will affect the commodities  business. Lately, I have been asked about my views and expectations from this year budget. I would like to put forward the following points-

Expectations are high for a massively reformist Union Budget that would give the somnolent economy the jolt it badly needs.

There are quite a lot of aspects that need immediate consideration for action as the bullion industry has been suffering a lot due to the current norms and practices.

Research & development is the key to the future of Indian bullion industry. Data by China Gold Association (CGA) shows China produced 451.8 tons of gold in 2014, up 5.52% year on year. It has been the eighth consecutive year for China to become the biggest gold producer globally.

Primarily, there is a need for R&D to be carried out in an efficient way in the country, which will increase production of the metal. This will reduce dependency on imports and in turn help the government to increase the forex reserve. As the metal will be extracted locally, customers will be benefitted pricewise, due to local production.
R&D is costly which requires huge investment, but with the help of FDI we can surely work out the way to get the most out of it. In turn, FDI would help in strengthening our rupee and in turn reduce the depreciation of our currency.
We expect the following to be executed immediately and in a short period of time.

a.    GST implementation is a must: If implemented, it is expected to provide a significant boost to investment and growth of the economy. GST will have a significant impact on almost all aspects of businesses operating in the country, including the supply chain, sourcing and distribution decisions, inventory costs and cash flows, pricing policy, accounting systems and transactions management.
We expect a flat 1% GST across India to be levied by the government, which would replace most indirect taxes currently in place. 

b.    Introduction of Option product for Commodity exchange is must: Those who have the exposure should be given an opportunity. It will be a boon for a bullion trader and jeweler. By using this instrument they can hedge their future position and in a way provide the necessary risk cover. An investor will also highly benefit through this instrument. He/she will get a chance to invest in a larger quantity of metal with a lower investment and reap benefits till the expiry date.

Commodity Transaction Tax (CTT) reduces market participation and lowers liquidity.

c.    Allow Depository schemes for bullion industry corporate: Gold Deposit Schemes are offered by banks in which investors deposit gold for a period of certain 3 years earning a fixed rate of interest.  Currently that has been reduced to 6 months. The depository scheme that the banks and MFs are enjoying should also be allowed to corporate, working for bullion industry. It will help to increase the gold reserves and in turn benefit the customers willing to deposit their idle gold. The government should instead harness the existing reserve of gold in our country rather than turning towards imports and implementing alarming hike on custom duty. Hike in the duty on imports will in no way; curtail the demand, as the precious metal has always been regarded as one of the best investment options for social security.

d.    Introduce schemes to convert unaccounted gold to accounted one: Indian households have nearly 25,000 to 30,000 tonnes of Gold. I expect that this budget would show an effective way to gain revenue by exporting it. I would suggest Government of India to introduce schemes like minimum tax scheme wherein an investor is charged minimum tax to convert his/her unaccounted gold into an accounted one. By this the government treasury will also increase and the idle gold can be put to use. The other scheme can be a VDS scheme (voluntary disclosure scheme) by which the Gold /Silver can be brought to the market.

e.    Extend Gold Loan scheme period and LC Tenure: We expect an increase in Gold loan scheme period to extend from 180 days to 360 days and LC tenure from 90 to 180 days. As of now Gold Loan is allowed up to 180 days which implies, a jeweler has to rollover his/her position twice in a year and that in turns leads to increase in imports. If the loan period is extended to 360 days, one cycle of loan will be reduced. A direct effect will be reduction in imports.

f.    NRI’s to be allowed to bring more Gold in India: Currently NRI’s are allowed 1 Kilo of Gold while arriving in India. Earlier this was 10 Kilos. We feel this cap should be raised back to the earlier levels or even more which would help in import reduction and lower the Forex pressure.


“The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.”

- Previous blog -
"Gold Perplexed"
http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2015/02/gold-perplxed.html

Saturday 7 February 2015

TRADE RANGE FOR GOLD REMAINS TIGHT

- By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL




The sentiments are so strong for the gold market that people get overly excited about the top as well as the bottom of the market. At times gold seems to be behaving like a common man who is fleeced by the minutest to the most extreme global scenarios.

This week too gold was dancing to the tunes of the US dollar, The US Jobs Data, Fed Interest rate hike, ECB’s actions on Greece, crude oil prices. So it’s basically a vicious circle for gold.

Ups and mostly downs were being strongly witnessed by gold. For the month of January Gold was up 8.4 per cent, its biggest monthly rise in three years, helped by a sharp slowdown in US fourth-quarter economic growth. US gold for April delivery edged up 0.2 per cent to US$1,265.20 an ounce.

But the first week of February was disappointing for gold. Gold steadied on Friday ahead of crucial US employment data, but was set to post its biggest weekly loss in almost two months after steep gains at the start of the year.

The gold market appears to be in a tug of war with uncertainty: in Europe, with Greece boosting safe-haven demand on one side, and a strong U.S. dollar on the other side. The metal dropped 1.5 percent this week the most since December.

Let’s analyze the key influential factors for gold

US Employment Data- The employment data released on Friday was much above the expectation levels and this changed the market’s view on when the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce a rate hike, and has hurt the metals complex since then.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 257,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 5.7 percent, from 5.36 percent the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report stated.  Job gains occurred in retail trade, construction, health care, financial activities, and manufacturing. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised from +353,000 to +423,000, and the change for December was revised from +252,000 to +329,000. With these revisions, employment gains in November and December were 147,000 higher than previously reported.

This further raises the expectations for the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates by mid-year, denting the appeal of non-interest yielding assets such as gold.

Strength in the U.S. economy is backing the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, curbing gold’s appeal because the metal generally gives investors returns only through price gains.


Greece- Meanwhile, investors remained wary of developments in Greece, after the European Central Bank said it would no longer accept Greek bonds as collateral for lending, shifting the burden on to Greece’s central bank to provide additional liquidity for its lenders and increasing pressure on Athens.

Greece’s government is seeking debt relief on its current €240 billion bailout, which has fuelled fears over a clash with its creditors that could bring about its eventual exit from the euro zone.

This uncertainty over Greece has provided the much needed support to gold prices.


ECB's action on Greece- The market kept an eye over the ECB’s actions on Greece after the newly elected Greek Prime Minister wanted to end the austerity programme by the Troika. The ECB restricted Greece from tapping the ECB’s direct liquidity lines, forcing the Greek banks to borrow at a higher rate from the Bank of Greece under the Emergency Liquidity Assistance.


Uncertainty about the ECB’s funding for Greece and the country’s exit from the Euro has led to a stronger demand for gold. Despite the weak Euro, which has fallen five percent against the Dollar this year, the gold price has risen 6.64% year-to-date and has climbed as high as ten percent this year. While some profit taking is natural after the big gold price move, the continuous liquidity boost from China and Europe and the volatility in the currencies are likely to support gold prices in the medium-term.


The metal is still up 6.8 percent this year amid concern about austerity measures in Greece and as central banks in Europe and Asia announced more stimuli to bolster economic growth. Investors have added to bullion holdings in exchange - traded funds for the past month, bringing assets to the highest level since October.

Apart from global facilitation., another element that will be crucial for the gold market are the growing problems in Europe as the European Union and Greece have been unable to develop a renegotiation agreement.

Following factors shall be monitored over the weeks to come-
  • G20 meeting on 9 February,
  • China’s January inflation data on 10 February
  • U.K. December manufacturing output on 10 February,
  • The Eurozone December industrial production on 12 February
  •  The U.S. January retail sales on 12 February
  • The Eurozone Q4 preliminary GDP on 13 February.

TRADE RANGE FOR GOLD:


METAL
INTERNATIONAL
DOMESTIC
GOLD
$1180- $1270 an ounce
Rs. 26,000- Rs. 28,000 per 10 gm
SILVER
$16.15- $18.00 an ounce
Rs. 36,000- Rs. 40,000 per kg


“The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.”

- Previous blog -
"Too Many Surprises For Gold In The Week To Come"
http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2015/01/too-many-surprises-for-gold-in-week-to.html




Sunday 12 October 2014

IS GOLD MAKING A COMEBACK?


by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL



Gold has fallen nearly 40% from its 2011 high above $1900 to reach below $1200 at the start of the week. A resurgent dollar, coupled with positive U.S. economic data, had been driving gold's declines over the past few weeks. Investors tend to withdraw from non-interest-bearing assets to seek higher yields elsewhere when the dollar gains.

But gold picked momentum in the past seven days. We finally saw gold catching a bid on global risk aversion. It has rebounded nearly 4 percent from the 15-month low of $1,183.46 it hit on Monday on heavy selling pressure that followed a better-than-expected U.S. payrolls report last week.

There were various factors responsible for the rise in prices-
  • The end of QE
  • Geopolitical uncertainty
  • Falling global growth estimates
All these factors once again made gold a good prospect as a safe haven asset.

On the second day of the week, gold was up after the  International Monetary Fund cut its global economic growth forecasts and weak German industrial data stoked further concerns. Following this the dollar fell which further gave a push to gold prices.

Gold rose consecutively for four days marking its longest winning gain in seven months. In fact traders witnessed heavy short covering for gold rise over the Fed minutes which created uncertainty over the timing of a Fed interest rate rise.


*source- www.kitco.com

The minutes of their last policy meeting showed that they are still struggling to come to grips with the dual threats of a stronger dollar and a global slowdown and hence they were further uncertain about linking the interest rate rise to U.S economic progress. Equities further weakened on concerns over global growth mainly in China and Europe.

Gold prices bounced off 2014 lows this week after testing support around the $1,180 area, a price gold hadn’t seen since June and December 2013. Analysts said short covering, which is the buying back of previously sold positions, and the return of Chinese traders from their Golden Week holiday helped return the yellow metal above $1,200.

However, In India it's a different scenario this year. Last year the volumes were much high as people rushed to buy gold, when prices crashed. This year prices have been consistently low. Moreover, disappointing monsoons and continued import restrictions have also affected gold demand in India.

Now the market awaits movement in equities, dollar and crude oil which could have a major role in influencing gold prices. Also, gold-market watchers will keep an eye on the Indian market to gauge metal demand ahead of the Diwali holiday later this month. Apart from this, the market player will also watch the economic data that will be flowing in- China releases a slew of economic reports, while The U.S. will see inflation data with the producer price index expected to show falls in energy and food prices, reflecting the recent drop in commodity prices.

If the US equities market continue to drop then it could create a favourable position for gold but if investors flush in more money into equities keeping the "buy on dips" funda in mind then we could see the dollar rally and gold would once again be pulled back from its gains.

Current view: BUY ON DIPS

Trade Range:

METAL INTERNATIONAL
price range

DOMESTIC
price range
GOLD  $1207 - $1242
an ounce 
Rs.26,500 - Rs.28,000
per 10 gm
SILVER $16.85 - $17.85
an ounce
Rs.38,000 - Rs.40,000
per kg


The primary purpose of this article by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

- Previous blog - "Gold's Future at Stake!"
http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2014/10/golds-future-at-stake.html