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Showing posts with label economic indicators. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economic indicators. Show all posts

Monday 3 October 2016

VOLATILE MARKETS: RSBL



 By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL




Markets were volatile as the week ended and this volatility was reflected in the movements of gold prices.

Gold prices fell on Friday, after shuffling between gains and losses as investors weighed concern about Europe's banking woes against heightened expectations of a Fed rate increase in December.

The yellow metal had fallen to as low as $1,311.95 on Friday – the lowest since September 21 – following news that Deutsche Bank was near a settlement with US regulators.
Amidst rise of uncertainty over the health of a financial industry, traders have shifted focus to gold to provide what it best does- safe haven. 

Traders are seeking for the yellow metal as uncertainty prevails after the news reports by Bloomberg that 10 hedge funds that do business with Deutsche Bank have pared their exposure. Its shares fell to a record low, and European and Asian equities retreated. There’s heightened haven buying as anxiety grows over the German lender, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said in a note.

Investors had been nervous about the uncertainty surrounding Deutsche Bank after some of its clients, among them several big hedge funds, were reported to have withdrawn securities or cash from the German lender amid concerns about its stability and their exposure.

But, on Friday, safe haven demand for gold dwindled after stocks in major markets largely recovered from a sell-off on easing concerns about Deutsche Bank. This lead to a fall in gold prices. Spot gold was down 0.3 percent at $1,316.32 per ounce during Friday trading hours.

As the session wore on, the focus turned to increasing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates by the end of the year. Fed-funds futures, used to bet on central-bank policy, showed investors assigned a 61.6 % likelihood to a rate increase in December, up from 52% the previous day, according to CME data on Friday.

Expectations for higher rates tend to weigh on gold, which yields nothing and struggles to compete with Treasury’s and other investments when borrowing costs rise.
Hence there were sluggish sentiments in the market as it might have to edge lower before finding firm support.

A collapse in Deutsche Bank's already beaten stock had sent Europe into a fresh tailspin early on Friday and left world equity markets slipping towards their worst week in three months. Safe-haven demand had sustained bullion until the market turned its attention to U.S. economic data and important numbers coming from China.


The Commerce Department said on Friday that U.S. consumer Spending fell in August for the first time in seven months while Inflation showed signs of accelerating, mixed signals that could keep the Fed cautious about raising interest rates.
Let’s have a look on the key economic indicators-

US
   

  • In US data released Friday, the core PCE price index was as expected at 0.2 percent but personal spending and personal income undershot at 0.0 percent and 0.2 percent.
  • The Chicago PMI was better than expected at 54.2. Revised UoM consumer sentiment and revised UoM inflation expectations at 91.2 and 2.4 percent respectively were also better than forecasts.
  •   A string of manufacturing PMI numbers are due from Eurozone countries as well as the US later today. The ISM manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing prices and total vehicle sales from the US will also be of note.
  •  In US data released on Thursday, second quarter final GDP growth came in at 1.4 percent quarter-on-quarter, slightly better than expectations of 1.3 percent. Weekly unemployment claims for last week was also better than expected at 254,000, against a forecast of 260,000.
  • Pending home sales for August, however, fell 2.4 percent month-on-month – a 0.1 percent decline was called for.


China

  • China’s official manufacturing PMI for September was at 50.4 (close to expectations of 50.5),
  • China’s manufacturing sector remains in expansion mode alongside stable production and demand growths, the NBS said.
  • But the foundation of the manufacturing sector’s stable growth is not solid as firms continue to face operating difficulties while industries eliminate excess capacities, the Bureau cautioned.
  • The country’s official non-manufacturing PMI, which represents the services sector was at 53.7 in September, was up from August’s figure of 53.5.
  • The official PMIs added to the continued Chinese growth story and risk on mood in markets, National Australia Bank said on Monday.
  • For the time being The precious metals are looking quite diverse with gold prices struggling to rise and when they do they struggle to hold on to any gains



  • For the time being The precious metals are looking quite diverse with gold prices struggling to rise and when they do they struggle to hold on to any gains.
     

     

    The primary purpose of this article by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.
    Previous blog:
    "Buy And Hold Gold: RSBL"
    http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2016/09/gold-buy-and-hold-rsbl.html
     

Sunday 8 May 2016

HAPPY AKSHAYA TRITIYA: RSBL

                                                    By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL






Firstly wishing everyone a very Happy Akshaya Tritiya. May this year be filled with wealth and prosperity.

We have seen many stories being revolved around this auspicious occasion. Our mythology and scriptures are filled with many interesting stories that relate to Akshaya Tritiya. Out of those, the tale if friendship between Lord Krishna and Sudama is relevant not only to understand the importance of this day, but also to emphasize on the need of having a true friend.

Sudama, also known as Kuchela, was one of Krishna’s childhood friends and the two share an equation so strong that it has become a legend of sorts. According to Hindu mythology, while Krishna went on to rule Dwarka, Sudama led a simple life and could hardly make ends meet. He needed all the financial assistance he could to led a normal life. Sudama led a life of poverty. 

One day, his wife could not bear to see their children hungry and said “can’t you ask Lord Krishna for help?” Sudama agreed but decided that he would not ask Krishna for anything. Then Sudama's wife borrowed some puffed rice from a neighbor and gave it to Sudama as a gift for Krishna. When Sudama came to Dwarka, Krishna was overjoyed! Then, he saw his pouch and snatched it fro
m his hand. “Puffed Rice! My favorite dish!” said Krishna and he ate a handful of rice greedily. 

Before he could take a second handful, Rukmini, stopped him, saying “One mouthful will give him all that he needs my Lord!”/ The next morning, Sudama left Dwarka. As he approached his house he saw a grand mansion. His wife and children came out wearing jewels and fine clothes. Sudama was filled with joy and happiness as his friend had given him more than he ever needed. The day when Krishna blessed Sudama with abundant wealth was marked as Akshaya Tritiya. 


This is one of the reasons why this day is celebrated as a day of material gain and wealth. Hence the custom of buying gold, silver, real estate etc has been followed.

Once again, it’s that time of the year where everyone is talking about investing in gold! Buying gold funds, jewelry and coins on Akshaya Tritiya is considered the best way to invest your wealth on this auspicious day. Though nowadays people look for other avenues like real estate, gadgets but nothing can replace gold.

 As the history of our country has it, after Dhanteras, maximum purchase of Gold, Silver and Platinum happen on this day.
People this year are full of mixed feelings-anxiety, excitement, nervousness as a lot is been happening around gold since the past few weeks.

Generally we also witness a price rise few days ahead of Akshaya Tritiya due to the rise in demand for the yellow metal.

In fact demand for gold this year is expected to be better than last year because-

Monsoons- A good monsoon will lead to rise in demand for gold prices this year which will ultimately boos prices. Those who expect further rise in gold prices may advance their purchases.



Strike- the jewelers went on strike after the announcement of excise levy. The industry is gearing up to meet the pent-up demand, which will be witnessed during this Akshaya Tritiya. There were many players who couldn’t make their purchases during the strike and will now enter the market to buy gold on this auspicious day


Gold rally- Recent rally in gold prices due to global influential factors have propelled investors and traders to anticipate further price rise which has pre-poned their purchases of the yellow metal.
As we all know this quarter has been the best quarter for gold in the past three decades. Prices have ranged between Rs.24, 910 to Rs.30, 300 per 10 gram. On one side where we see sales dampening due to this high volatility, on the other hand we also expect the demand for gold to rise given the global and domestic factors that have been influencing gold.


Traders also anticipate that in terms of volume, consumer demand might witness a negative growth of about 10%, but in value terms, it is likely to be at par with last year’s sales.
Above all demand for gold this year is expected to be comparatively better that the past 2 years.


The primary purpose of this article by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

 Previous Blog
"RSBL: Gold & Silver Price Rise"
http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2016/05/rsbl-gold-silver-prices-rise.html