Gold's future looks bright

With uncertainty surrounding the world economy because of the coronavirus and crude oil price crash, gold prices have been a rollercoaster throughout the start of 2020.

Spot bullion is trading around $1 720 -- close to a more than seven-year high -- and is forecast by numerous banks to extend gains as the impact of the virus pushes economies toward recession and prompts action from central banks. Those factors are adding to what was already a strong outlook, with rising demand among middle-class consumers in China and India and signs of supply constraints, commented a top gold dealer in India.

On the other hand, the current crisis results not only from a negative supply shock but also from a negative demand shock pointed one of the bullion dealers in India. As a result of uncertainty, people cling to cash and forego unnecessary expenses. In addition, social distancing means reduced household spending on many goods and services, which exerts deflationary pressure. The most prominent example I would say is the recent crude oil price crash. The price has temporarily dropped below $0 a barrel (this was partly due to the contract for West Texas Intermediate crude). Lower fuel prices will translate into lower CPI inflation rate. Entrepreneurs, especially those with large stocks of goods, will probably lower prices to encourage shopping. Moreover, the appreciation of the US dollar means lower prices of imported goods.

Many of my peers at RSBL and industry friends are afraid that the coronavirus crisis will spur inflation. And they are right  After all, the increased demand for food and hygiene products raised the prices of these goods. Moreover, supply-side disruptions can reduce the availability of many goods, contributing to their increasing prices I am afraid.

The US CPI inflation rate declined 0.4 percent in March, following a 0.1 percent increase in February. It was the largest monthly decline since January 2015. The decrease was mainly driven by a sharp decline in the gasoline prices. However, the core CPI rate, which excludes energy and food prices, also decreased in March - by 0.1 percent (versus 0.2 percent rise in February), which was its first monthly decline since January 2010.

Gold prices consolidated around the $1,750 mark on Thursday, extending a recent pattern that has seen them rally on risk-friendly news and outperform on more bearish developments. spot gold  was up 0.6% at $1,724.45 an ounce, outperforming the futures contract after the U.S. Mint closed its West Point facility due to the coronavirus.

Havens were in favor again after another immense number for U.S. initial jobless claims, which fell only slightly from the previous week to 5.245 million. The U.S. economy has now lost more than 20 million jobs in a month due to the pandemic.

What will happen to gold irrespective of inflation or deflation? I would say Gold has always been a safe-haven asset and it does shine during both inflationary and deflationary periods. After all, gold also rallied in the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy, when the economy plunged into deflation for a while. Why one would ask? Experts at RiddhiSiddhi Bullions Limited say that gold's price is also sensitive to market sentiment and risk aversion. Then, gold is no one's liability. So, when deflation is accompanied by significant economic worries and a loss of confidence in the US dollar, gold may shine. Anyway, gold's future - in a world of negative real interest rates, elevated risk aversion and high public debt - looks bright.

Time to keep a watch on gold supply disruption

Gold has been shining all the way, ever since Covid-19 became a pandemic. There was great volatility witnessed the world over, wherein prices climbed to their highest level since 2012.

Though we did see gold prices moving a bit lower during the past few weeks, the virus scare kept the rally in gold alive. On one side gold is being considered as a safe haven asset and on the other side, it is being oversold in order to cover up the losses incurred in the stock market, commented a  top gold dealer in India. It’s being pulled from both the sides.

The Covid-19 outbreak has had a major impact on the gold market, bringing massive price swings as investors react to new developments related to the pandemic.

The World Health Organization officially declared Covid-19 a pandemic on March 11, but gold prices didn’t immediately rally as many expected, even as the hit to the global economy became apparent with the closure of schools and businesses around the world.

That’s because gold generally goes through a shakeout of weak hands before reaching new highs.

Currently, the U.S dollar is considered the strongest fiat currency, while gold has broken out into new all-time highs against the other currencies.

Gold had reached an all-time intraday high of $1923.70 on September 6, 2011. Last week, on Thursday, gold was just $171 an ounce away from this high as it settled at $1752.80.
Gold did drop a bit on Friday, but it still remained very well supported.

We saw a lot of pumping in during the week by major world economies-

• In a bid to keep the economy afloat amid the outbreak, which had forced 16.8 million Americans to file for unemployment benefits since the week ended March 21; the Fed on Thursday announced a broad, $2.3 trillion stimulus package.                                                         
• European Union finance ministers also agreed on half-a-trillion Euros worth of economic support but left open the question of how to finance recovery in the bloc headed for a steep recession.

Subject experts at RiddhiSiddhi Bullions Limited stated that any form of stimulus attracts gold. It improves the opportunity cost for holding the yellow metal.

Meanwhile, major physical bullion dealers in India saw activity dwindle last week due to coronavirus-led restrictions, with strained supply chains cut off from soaring safe-haven demand in some regions.

Supply disruptions have been a growing worry as governments around the world are shutting down businesses deemed as nonessential. Three of the world’s largest gold refineries—Valcambi, Argor-Heraeus and PAMP—have suspended production in Switzerland for at least a week on the back of mandatory closure of nonessential industry in the country to prevent the spread of coronavirus, said a senior-level executive at RSBL.

The problem is there are logistical issues moving metals around, so you cannot satisfy supplies of gold from one area and bring to another
The hunt for existing gold supplies in the near-term threatens to create significant issues with various markets that cannot connect with one another easily. There’s the possibility here of longer supply chain disruptions, which will make the odds grow that more interest in existing Comex inventories will be demanded. Even we at RisddhiSiddhi Bullions are finding it difficult to move around RSBL Gold.

Currently, we don’t see economies reviving up that fast, at least not for the current calendar year. A hold above $1,700 would be very constructive in terms of giving [gold] a boost up to the all-time highs. Hence there could possibly be an acceleration in buying pressure on gold. All said and done, it is a great time to buy gold equities which were sold off with general equities in the rush to meet margin calls.

Meanwhile, in the domestic markets, especially the prices shall keep reflecting higher growth in gold compared to Global Comex as the depreciating rupee factor shall play a role.

The rupee which was trading at Rs72/$ odd average rate in March has spiked to an average rate to Rs 74-76/$ levels which indicates that the price of USDINR pair shall keep giving support to the yellow metal despite a global fall.

I believe that one should allocate at least 25 percent of your portfolio in Gold ETFs, and another 30 percent in cash till a cure for COVID-19 is found, or lockdown is removed.

Pumping of liquidity pumps up gold prices

The coronavirus, which emerged in China late last year, has turned into a global pandemic that has claimed lives of over 70,000 people and paralysed large wraps of the global economy.

From a spark in prices, gold did witness a minor correction as it dipped in March. According to the Bullion King of India; Mr Prithviraj Kothari, the decline in gold prices in March can primarily be attributed to two reasons.

• Investors were selling everything including equities, bonds and precious metals owing to the panic caused by an unprecedented non-financial hazard — the coronavirus — to global financial markets.
• Partial or full lockdowns by various governments to enforce social distancing in order to curb the spread of the virus, raised concerns about gold mining.

As per the sentiments of bullion dealers in India, gold continues to receive support as all central banks are trying to inject more liquidity into the system with their easy monetary policies.

FED- Fed has reduced the benchmark interest rate to zero.  A top official at the U.S. Federal Reserve on Sunday said the $2.3 trillion economic relief bill approved by Congress was appropriately sized and that a further relief effort may not be needed if support efforts are well executed.

The ECB and the Bank of Japan- they are maintaining a negative interest rate policy for a long time. Japan’s PM Shinzo Abe is set to declare a state of emergency soon as the number of confirmed cases in Tokyo soars past the 1,000 mark. In addition, things remain tense in Britain with the death toll nearing 5,000 even as PM Boris Johnson gets hospitalized due to coronavirus. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, making gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies


However, post the dip in gold prices in March, the precious yellow metal regained momentum after President Donald Trump told U.S. citizens to prepare for “very, very painful two weeks” on Mar 31. Moreover, weak economic data dented market participants' confidence, commented one of the top gold dealer in India.


Gold prices rallied to erase three-quarters of this week's earlier $60 drop Thursday in lunchtime, rising to $1612 per ounce as US stock markets rose despite weekly claims for jobless benefits setting their second new all-time record in a row amid the fast-worsening Coronavirus Crisis.

The initial jobless claims by the Americans skyrocketed to a historic high of nearly 10 million for two consecutive weeks ended Mar 21 and Mar 28. The United States has never lost more than 1.4 million jobs in any two successive weeks in its history. Moreover, U.S. auto sales declined to 11.4 million in March from 16.7 million in February.


After rising steadily for 113 consecutive months, job creation in the US witnessed a contraction during the month of March, with the US economy registering a loss of 701k jobs because of the shutdown of workplaces and factories across the country. This boosted the safe-haven appeal of gold as markets worry about the economic fallout from the pandemic and the rising risks of an upcoming recession not just in the US economy but also in the global economy.

However, gains in gold remained limited as the US dollar continued to make gains as a preferred safe haven currency despite the weak economic data from the US. The dollar shares a negative correlation with gold as a higher dollar makes it more expensive for holders of non-dollar currencies to purchase gold.
From a long term standpoint, gold will still remain the preferred asset as the environment of low-interest rates and virus-induced global slowdown would support a prolonged rally.

While equities tend to dominate the headlines, it has been the star performer of the past two decades. The graphic below shows how gold has outperformed both the Down Jones and the US Dollar since 2001. Gold is up 498% compared to the Dow up 98% and the dollar down 81%. Gold indeed remains a favourite

Gold continues to be in wait-and-see mode on how bad the global economy will get and how long will the depression-like conditions last.

Most traders would expect gold to be higher, after the payrolls data but “gold’s problem is that supply tightness is easing, and the dollar continues to grind higher. Ultimately gold will shine from the entire fiscal and monetary stimulus being pumped into markets globally.

The aggravation of coronavirus pandemic with each passing day has left investors scurrying for safe-haven assets as they remain apprehensive regarding the recovery of global economic growth and its consequent impact on stock markets. This, in turn, has triggered a demand for gold, which is considered as a key investment option during times of financial turbulence.

Gold fights back as the world fights back COVID-19

Over the past few weeks, Covid-19 has reached into the pandemic stage globally, and is creating havoc not only medically but also economically. We have seen Covid-19 evolve from a predominantly Chinese outbreak to a global crisis. As of 1^st April, 2020, there have been nearly 859,929 confirmed cases and over 42,000 deaths across 203 countries, and these numbers continue to increase on a daily basis. Although China remains the hardest-hit country in absolute terms, relative to its population, more than 20 countries, most of them in Europe, have now surpassed it, the most affected being Italy.

Italy, Spain and France have already implemented aggressive containment measures that will undoubtedly affect their economies. Other nations may well follow suit, while individuals are also likely to increasingly exercise caution in their day-to-day activities.

Against this backdrop, further pressure on global growth seems inevitable. Investor anxiety towards that prospect will likely intensify this as far as market moves are concerned. In this environment, gold’s downside will at the very least be supported. Eventually, we expect a healthy rebound to appear, as the appetite for safe haven assets remains strong.

While China is back on its path of recovery and has finally announced movement of flights and opening of lockdowns, still world over countries continue to struggle this medical monster that has been one of the most lethal virus of all times.

According to the World Health Organisation, concerns about Covid-19’s ability to continue spreading have sent shock waves across markets. Equity prices around the world have suffered sharp declines and bond yields in key markets have collapsed to all-time lows. Industrial commodities have also come under pressure.
As a result, authorities in a number of countries have either implemented or promised monetary and fiscal interventions, which at times have offered some support. In spite of such efforts, risk aversion has continued to spread. Most notably, the 50 and 100 bps cuts by the US Federal Reserve on March 3 and March 15 respectively have done little to help US equity prices.
For a while, gold was one of the few beneficiaries, as investors have looked for safe haven assets to help diversify their portfolios. Since the beginning of February, gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings have increased by more than 100 tonnes and in the first half of February, money managers’ net positions in Comex futures rose by nearly 180 tonnes, although more than a third of that was later sold off.
In turn, this fuelled a rally to a peak of $1,703, a level unseen since before the 2013 liquidations. Meanwhile, gold prices denominated in euro as well as a number of Asian currencies reached all-time highs.
But gradually as other markets crashed, we saw investors selling gold, in order to cover up losses made elsewhere. As panic selling eventually spread across all asset classes, safe haven assets also experienced heavy liquidations. Bond yields rebounded and gold prices collapsed.
Gold prices retreated again on Tuesday under pressure from end-of-quarter repositioning, but also from the awareness that emerging market central banks, having been keen buyers of gold in recent years, now have to push more out into the market to defend their currencies.
Gold prices dropped as much as 2.4pc on Tuesday as the dollar strengthened and strong Chinese economic data boosted risk appetite but bullion was heading for a sixth straight quarterly rise amid fears over a global shutdown due the coronavirus.
The combination of a strengthening dollar and better risk appetite is weighing on gold. The dollar index rose 0.8pc after posting a nearly 1pc gain overnight, as Japanese investors and companies rushed to cover a greenback shortage before their fiscal year ends.
Central banks around the world have announced major fiscal and monetary packages to try to limit the economic damage, as governments have extended lockdowns to combat the virus.
Major central banks moves seen this week-

• The Central Bank of Ecuador said it had raised $300 million through a one-month gold swap which involved pledging 240 thousand ounces of its reserves.
• On Monday, the central bank of Russia confirmed widely-held expectations in saying it would stop buying gold from domestic producers on April 1, a move that will bolster its reserves as it fights to stop the ruble depreciating too fast against the dollar and euro.
• The CBR had already cut its purchases by around 40% last year as gold prices rallied to multiyear highs.
• Strong Chinese factory data lifted world stocks on Tuesday but markets were heading their worst quarter since 2008, on jitters about the economic hit from the coronavirus

A further factor weighing on gold Tuesday was a second-straight day of gains for the dollar as it recovered its poise from last week’s selloff. A strong dollar drives up the price of gold in local currencies worldwide.
However, it is important to stress that even after these corrections, gold continued to significantly outperform other asset classes, most notably equities, where most major markets have suffered double-digit declines year-to-date.
Looking ahead, we believe the Covid-19 outbreak is likely to continue affecting global markets and, by implication, precious metals, at the very least for the next few weeks and likely the next two to three months. Although the rate at which confirmed cases are growing has slowed down significantly in China, it is accelerating across some key Western economies, notably the United States, Italy, France and Germany.
With central banks unleashing a tsunami of quantitative easing (QE) at a time when fear is running rampant in markets and (as) government debts are about to explode, it seems like the perfect cocktail that could push gold back to record highs.

Gold Still Remains An Investors Favourite

It was like a sabbatical for me as I write after a fortnight. There was too much volatility in the markets where prices were just swinging. Varied reasons being responsible, I actually wanted to take time out, analyse the global scenarios and then put across my inputs on gold’s behaviour.

Last week we saw unprecedented government action to get on top of the developing COVID-19 situation in Australia to avoid what we have seen in other countries. Not surprisingly, the combination of continuing falls in financial markets across all asset classes, societal restrictions and talk of further controls had investors running to safety.

Globally we witnessed acceleration in volumes and this has been the case across the whole physical bullion industry talking to our many contacts.

What has confused many is that they can see the massive demand for physical gold and silver while at the same time the price of the metals has fallen – at least in US dollars. The volatility in the spot price reflects a battle between the physical market and paper desk traders and trend following algorithms.

Last week there were a lot of articles that were similar to those back in the global financial crisis – stories about shortages and that the physical market and the paper market are, or have, disconnected.

The driver behind those stories has been the reality of physical products selling out and going on back order along with increases in premiums. This has been particularly the case in America, which has this week only really woken up to the threat of COVID-19 - resulting in increased demand for physical gold and silver.

The stand-out country at the moment is the USA which is paying a terrible price for the apparent downplaying of the virus in its early stages by President Trump, who as recently as February 28th referred to the virus incidence in the U.S. as a hoax, and saying the virus would miraculously go away.  No doubt many Trump believers thus treated any dire warnings of the pandemic as hugely overblown.  Now we are in a situation where the U.S. is the third most affected country in the world and if the virus spread continues at its current rate could even overtake China as the world’s most affected nation within a month.

The entire world is now aware or rather panic about the deadly virus. This panic is creating significant movement in the precious metals market.

Precious metals have seen price falls along with the equities markets, but in the case of gold not nearly to the same extent.  It keeps on being taken down below the $1,500 psychological level, but so far has invariably bounced back  Year to date the yellow metal is down around 1% while U.S. equities for example are down around 35% over the same period.  But this price fall is in U.S. dollars.  In most other countries, due to dollar strength, gold is close to all-time highs in domestic currencies and is thus serving extremely well as a wealth protector in these nations – indeed in most of the world.

Like most asset classes, gold is being affected by the unprecedented economic and financial market conditions in play around the globe. We believe that recent volatility in the gold price has been driven by massive liquidations across all assets, and likely magnified by leveraged positions and rule-based trading.

Gold has also likely been used to raise cash to cover losses in other asset classes because:

• it remains one of the best performing asset classes year-to-date, despite recent fluctuations
• it is a high quality and highly liquid asset, trading over US$260 billion (bn) per day in March

Looking ahead, we believe the deceleration in economic growth will undoubtedly impact gold consumer demand and gold’s volatility may remain high, but high risk levels combined with widespread negative real rates and quantitative easing will be supportive of gold investment demand as a safe haven.

But what we need to really know is that Why did the gold price drop alongside stocks?

The answer is linked to several factors. The most prominent of these is the massive liquidation virtually all asset classes experienced in the past week. And gold was no exception.

Even longer-term US treasuries prices fell, despite a second unscheduled cut by the Fed on 15 March slashing the Fed funds rate to pre-2016 levels. The 10-year US treasury yield is trading above 1% after reaching a historical low of 0.33% on 9 March.

As a high quality, liquid asset gold may also have been used to raise cash.

It may take a while for financial markets to stabilise. Amidst high volatility, the gold price may experience additional swings, but the long-term implications of an environment combining high risk and lower opportunity cost should support gold investment demand.

We also expect central banks to remain net gold buyers overall, albeit likely not at the same rate as in the past two years.

Bullion is set for back-to-back weekly losses for the first time since September after the dollar hit a record, although its drop was pared Friday as investors took stock of the outlook for the global economy, the spread of the disease, and looser monetary policy. With deep losses in risk assets this month, some investors have been forced to sell gold to raise cash. A similar pattern -- losses at times of extreme market stress -- was seen in bullion at the onset of the global financial crisis in late 2008, before it went on to peak in 2011.

These major crashes show that Gold and silver eventually respond to the crisis of the time and prices ultimately soar.

You’ll notice this occurred during periods of both inflation and deflation. While they both tend to do better in inflation, they ultimately rose in response to crisis.

This of course is what we have on our hands now. History says that despite the current selloff in gold and silver, the crisis will draw in more and more investors and as a result, eventually impact their prices in a major way.

Prithviraj Kothari is the author of this article. Find more information about Prithviraj Kothari.

Gold Might Come On For Profit Taking

It has been a strong start to 2020 for gold, with the yellow metal rising by 12.99% in AUD terms, and 4.54% in USD terms in the first two months of the year, despite the sharp correction in precious metal prices last Friday.

Onto these wild market swings and uncertainty, gold once again provided a safe haven against emerging turmoil. The biggest weekly gain since 2009 took it to levels not seen for seven years, leaving both silver and platinum trailing in the process.

The coronavirus outbreak has worsened to now more than 95,000 infected worldwide and has spread globally. The threat of the coronavirus on global economic growth has now impacted all asset classes, global trade, liquidity and central bank policies.

It was in mid-February when the severity of the economic impact of the coronavirus began to be reflected by major companies, such as Apple when it provided earnings warnings. For several weeks major parts of China were locked down (closing businesses) to contain the outbreak. The impact was a reminder of how important China is in the global supply chain and its impact on global growth. Yields fell, yield curves flattened and inverted inflation expectations rolled over and commodity prices collapsed.

The negative economic impact of the coronavirus that for weeks has been signalled through weakness, finally spread like a wildfire to the rest of the market. The week kicked off with an emergency 50bp rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve, a move that only strengthened the sense of panic in the market. Within a few days, global sovereign bond yields had collapsed to a record low, gold and stock market volatility spiked while the dollar came under some significant selling pressure as longs were exited.

On March 3, the U.S. Federal Reserve (the "Fed") made a surprise emergency cut in interest rates taking the Fed Funds rates down 50 basis points to a range of 1.00%-1.25%. The rate cut made an immediate, positive impact on gold bullion and gold equities.

The emergency rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve on Monday, is, according to market expectations, likely to be followed by another 50 bp cut at the regular FOMC meeting on March 18. So far, the low point stands at 0.20% which could be reached before the November U.S. elections.

A perfect storm of supporting factors drove gold’s rally and outperformance. Safe haven demand aside, it was the collapse in U.S. 10-year real yields to -0.60%, a seven-year low, sudden dollar weakness - as yield spreads to other currencies collapsed - and continued stock market weakness.

There is a clear rush to safe haven assets at the moment and gold is a major beneficiary of this situation. Monday trading saw another blood bath emerge on global stock markets.

Where the world is just trying to accept the impact this virus has created all over, another shock to the global markets was the breakdown of relations across the OPEC+ group.

As if corona virus panic was not enough, this was an add-on to rock investor confidence world over. Fears that waves of oil from Saudi and Russian wells are about to hit the market- has provided a sucker punch to market sentiment.

The ultimate safe haven asset in these troubled times is clearly gold. Its sentimental qualities are eternal, while the hard currency’s role as a hedge against inflation makes is a particularly attractive asset to buy today, Central banks have already been loosening monetary policy like crazy to support global growth over the past year. More stimuli is coming down the line following the Fed’s interest cuts of last week to offset the impact of the coronavirus, too.

That is why if you get a dip in gold prices, add to it. Dedicating your entire portfolio to one particular asset is not a wise decision. In fact, I, would rather advise investors to allot around 10-15% of their portfolio in gold so that it becomes a hedge tool.

It’s a different world altogether now. There is collateral damage on most risk portfolios and the lone survivor of gains is fold which is nearly up 12 % on global futures and 17% on local futures markets. So gold will keep on coming for massive profit taking if funding losses of other assets is needed.

Prithviraj Kothari is the author of this article. Find more information about Prithviraj Kothari.

Emergency Rate Cut Pushes Gold Prices Higher

After getting caught up in last week’s punishing virus-driven sell-off, gold is seeking to refresh its haven credentials. The metal advanced after a weekend of negative developments, including a surge in virus cases around the world. With rising expectations that central banks will now act, Friday’s big slump in gold was put down to investors’ forced selling to cover losses elsewhere.

Bullion is always considered the safest mode of investment during crisis. Given that, investors tend to sell gold, as prices rise, during extreme turmoil, in order to cover-up losses incurred elsewhere. Similar pattern was seen last week where gold was sold off heavily, a situation that was last seen significantly during the 2008 financial crisis.

Gold prices plunged over 4.5% on Friday, with precious metals joining a broader market selloff as investors liquidated positions to meet margin calls in other assets.

Investors were cashing out to cover losses and meet margin calls in other markets. This does not mean that investor attitude towards gold has changed or that investors have started losing faith in the yellow metal. Gold is still perceived as a safe haven asset and shall continue to do so.

And we did not have to wait too long to prove it. After witnessing a drop in prices on Friday, gold bounced back on Monday, as it rose 1 percent.

Even equities had rallied initially  as the Bank of Japan followed the US Federal Reserve in vowing to take action to stem the impact of the novel coronavirus, with Tokyo launching a new raft of bond purchases and continuing to buy stock-market ETF funds.

Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank would take steps to steady markets, and bolster liquidity through short-term lending operations and asset purchases. On Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell issued a rare, unscheduled statement, emphasizing the central bank’s intention to act appropriately to address the risks posed by the coronavirus.

A second death from the virus in the U.S., has raised fears of a wider spread of the disease domestically and investors are starting to believe that the Fed and other central banks will act to tamp down expected economic shocks from COVID-19, the infectious disease that originated in Wuhan, China late last year and has rapidly spread across the globe.

The global death toll from the illness stands at more than 3,000, and deaths in China stand at 2,900, according to recent reports.

The coronavirus outbreak continued to take its toll on activity as China reported more than 78,800 infections with almost 2,800 deaths so far. Concerns about the global economy mounted as the virus spread in other countries.

 Gold rose more than 1% on Monday, rebounding from a steep decline across precious metals, amid investor hopes the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to cushion the impact of the fast-spreading coronavirus.

Expectations for a Fed interest rate cut at the March 18 meeting are rising “and gold’s appeal as a safe haven is still strong” as the likelihood of “further coronavirus problems and upcoming political headlines in the U.S., Israel, South America, Greece, euro zone and Middle East worries are still intact.”

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that while the U.S. economy remained strong, the coronavirus “posed an evolving risk” and the central bank stood ready to take action if needed.

Following Fed chairman Jerome Powell's statement that the US central bank will "act as appropriate" as the virus poses "evolving risks" to the economy, markets were expecting a certain rate cut when the policy committee would meet on March 17-18

But what happened on Tuesday took the markets by a sudden shock.

Gold prices rose on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve announced an emergency rate cut Tuesday of half a percentage point in response to the growing economic threat from the novel coronavirus.

Spot gold was up 3.3% at $1,643.85 an ounce, having gained more than 1% in the previous session. U.S. gold futures firmed 3.1% to $1,644.10.

The move was the first such cut since the financial crisis. It comes amid a volatile patch on Wall Street and amid a steady stream of pressure from President Donald Trump, who has called for lower rates to stay competitive with policy at other global central banks.

Expectations of rate cuts by the Fed and negative yields in the euro zone, Switzerland and Japan have supported gold prices. Not from a safe haven point of view, but because at least gold does not charge a penalty (which negative-yielding currencies do). So, gold rallied with stocks because at the time it was a risk-on investment.

Prithviraj Kothari is the author of this article. Find more information about Prithviraj Kothari.

Growing Number Of People Buying Gold

Gold is trading near a seven-year high, supported by an increasing number of coronavirus cases worldwide that threaten to curtail global economic activity. Gold has been rallying not only due to the virus but also due to the overall global economic growth.

Coronavirus- gold has been rising amid continuing worries over the Wuhan coronavirus. The price of gold bounced back from the weekly low ($1625) as COVID-19 showed no signs of slowing down, and fears surrounding the coronavirus kept the precious metal afloat as the outbreak dampened the outlook for global growth.

Gold edged higher on February 26 after a sharp drop in the previous session, as investors sought safe haven assets following a warning from the United States over the potential domestic spread of the coronavirus.

Global economy- After surging 18% last year, gold has extended its rally in 2020, with prices hitting the highest since 2013. The haven has been favoured as the virus outbreak has spread beyond China, threatening a pandemic and slower growth.

Perhaps, the worst case scenario to the global economy could start to materialize and that is keeping gold prices bid because everyone is concerned that the virus is leading to low yields.

The weakening outlook for global growth is likely to put pressure on major central banks to provide monetary support, and the low interest rate environment may heighten the appeal of gold as authorities like the European Central Bank (ECB) rely on non-standard measures to support Euro area.

It remains to be seen if the ECB will venture into uncharted territory as the Governing Council remains reluctant to push the main refinance rate, the benchmark for borrowing costs, into negative territory.

Federal Reserve- the Federal Reserve is expected to enact more “insurance” rate cuts as it looks like the U.S. economy has been impacted by the coronavirus. The virus could have a more significant impact than the trade issues had on the economy last year.

Friday preliminary PMI data showed that sentiment in the U.S. service sector contracted for the first time in more than six years.

The market is finding it difficult to look further into the medium term due to uncertainty regarding what the virus will do to the global growth. There are beliefs that central banks may cut rates sooner than later. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion resulting in a push in gold prices.

Gold has marked the longest winning streak since June, with the price for bullion trading at its highest level since 2013, and the precious metal may continue to exhibit a bullish behaviour as market participants look for an alternative to fiat currencies.

Besides the safe-haven demand, a growing number of people are buying gold in anticipation of weaker growth from the spread of coronavirus and action from the Fed.

So far, economists have only snipped their expectations for the economic impact on the United States and the profits of American companies. But the sharp tumble in stocks — and more importantly bond yields — on Monday suggests investors are quickly moving beyond those relatively rosy views.

Prithviraj Kothari is the author of this article. Find more information about Prithviraj Kothari.

Coronavirus Fears Continue To Impact Gold Prices

Gold prices have rallied about 7% year to date. Gold was seen trading near $1,670 an ounce, on Monday 24th February; its highest level since early 2013, boosted in part by a flight to safety stemming from the spreading coronavirus.

Gold soared as much as 2.8% on Monday to its highest level in seven years, as investors worried about global economic growth in the face of sharply rising coronavirus cases outside China.

Spot gold was up 1.9% at $1,674.40 per ounce during Monday’s trading session. The session high, $1,688.66, was its highest since January 2013.

The rise in gold was close to three times the gains in the S&P 500 before the selloff on Monday, Feb. 24 — while bond yields are at or near historic lows in the U.S. and in negative territory in many other developed economies.

Rising concerns and fears over the virus have spooked the markets. And the fear is not only over the rising medical emergency but also the result that it will have on various economies.

Outside mainland China, the outbreak has spread to about 29 countries and territories, with a death toll of about two dozen, according to a Reuters tally. However, the rate of infection in China has eased.

The World Health Organization said it was worried about the growing number of cases without any clear link to China.

The missed work days in China may be equal to the entire U.S. work force taking a two-month unplanned break. The sheer size of this disruption is starting to be felt not only in China but also elsewhere, raising the risk of further short to medium-term pressure on growth-dependent commodities before demand eventually returns to boost prices.

There was a sharp rise in coronavirus cases reported in Italy, South Korea and Iran, with Afghanistan and Iraq reporting their first cases.

Investors view gold and other assets like government bonds and the U.S. dollar as safe havens during times of stress.

Investors’ fears over the virus outbreak triggered a wide sell-off in equity markets.  In Europe, markets had their biggest daily declines since mid-2016.

Concerns about the human and economic cost of the coronavirus continue to drive the need for strategic diversification and safe haven demand.

Gold is “a great hedge against market shocks and rising inflation” and is also a “great diversifier” in portfolios.

The yellow metal is a “great asset to add to more conservative portfolios and should ideally  take an equal but small pro-rata share from equity and bond allocations in those portfolios to end up with a 3% to 5% allocation to gold.

Gold is a “safe” investment with a “store of value” during tumultuous times like today, buffeted by geopolitical risks from Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, North Korea and the U.K. (Brexit), uncertainty about the upcoming U.S. presidential election and, more recently, the spreading coronavirus.

At the same time gold is supported by strong demand for jewellery and central bank reserves, especially from emerging markets.

The news from Italy has taken coronavirus fears to the next worrying level of a global pandemic, potentially triggering significant stock market sell-offs, sending Gold above $1,800, and perhaps pushing the Federal Reserve to a rate cut in March.

We believe that the combination of additional rate cuts, increased stimulus, and negative US real yields – which reached a 7-year low at -0.15% - and increased worries about company earnings going forward, will continue to drive strategic diversification and safe haven demand.

Adding to this is the clear risk that the virus outbreak may have a longer and more profound impact.

Gold could be on the verge of a long-term super cycle if interest rates remain at historically low levels in the U.S. and around the world and the yellow metal breaks above the $1,888 high reached in 2011.

Prithviraj Kothari is the author of this article. Find more information about Prithviraj Kothari.

Coronavirus Gives Rush To Gold Prices

Past six to eight months have been quit pleasing for fold. There are plenty of good reasons to be optimistic about gold’s prospects.

The global economy and the financial system are already stretched to a breaking point and Demand for precious metals is heating up. This, of course, is plain for all to see, even As mainstream investors and analysts still refuse to face facts and prefer to focus on naïve hopes of an eternal expansion.

If we look at these factors in detail we can see that these risks will be going forward and creating a more uncertain atmosphere for gold which will further push prices higher.

The massive policy U-turn by the Fed certainly played a part, and so did the move by the ECB to resume its own easing policies and monthly asset buying spree. We have officially returned to loose monetary policies across the board, and this provided a boost to precious metals until now.  Another important factor was the renewed interest in gold by institutional players, as demand from that side of the market also picked up significantly.

Bullion is rising at a time when U.S. stocks are at an all-time high even as traders weigh the global impact of the disease. While Hubei, the province at the centre of the outbreak, reported fewer cases after another revision to its counting method, there are signs of deepening economic damage. In addition, two deaths were reported in Iran, highlighting the threat outside China.

The coronavirus had a downward effect on most commodity prices. Since 20 January – the date of confirmation of human-to-human transmission – prices of energy and industrial metals have fallen significantly. The outbreak has grown exponentially since, and is expected to impact the global economy dramatically during Q1. But gold has rallied quite high compared to other metals.

The traditional haven has climbed more than 6% this year amid mounting concern over the effects of the virus, with companies from Apple Inc. to Burberry Group Plc cutting guidance. While minutes from the latest Fed meeting showed that officials indicated they could leave rates unchanged for many months, futures traders maintained expectations for at least one cut over 2020.

A market convinced that the Chinese slowdown will elicit further rate cuts in developed markets chose to ignore surprising rises in inflation in both the U.S. and U.K. earlier. U.S. factory gate prices rose 0.5%, taking the annual rate of producer price inflation to 2.1%, its highest since May, while the U.K. consumer price index rose more than expected to 1.8%, still below the Bank of England’s target but an upside surprise consistent with other strong data this week that have argued against further rate cut.

Gold traded near a seven-year high on concern that the coronavirus outbreak will retard global growth, coupled with speculation the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy before the year-end.

In the domestic markets too, for the sixth consecutive day, gold prices touched life time high of Rs 41,636 per 10 grams in Mumbai's bullion market as demand for the safe-haven metal rose after Apple issued a warning that its sales would be impacted by coronavirus epidemic in China.

The rate of 10 grams, 22-carat gold in Mumbai was Rs 38,139 plus 3 percent GST, while that of 10 grams, 24-carat gold was Rs 41,636 plus GST.

Gold prices edged higher touching the $1,600 level as the death toll and the number of affected people due to the coronavirus outbreak continues to rise.

Warnings from Apple and HSBC that the epidemic was damaging their businesses lent support to the metal prices.

Gold prices hit a seven-year high on Wednesday as expectations of further monetary policy easing to cushion the economic impact of the Covid-19 outbreak.

Precious metals had to battle with a split-personality market, as demand for the ultimate haven asset was accompanied by a rebound in risk assets such as equities and oil. Bond yields, which normally fall when gold rises, rose by one to two basis points along the Treasury curve.

But given that China is already struggling with a huge corporate debt problem, some took the view that bailouts were likely to be followed by loan defaults and ever-greater problems with the Chinese financial system – a development that hardly makes havens like gold less attractive.

Support for the yellow metal is driven by economic uncertainty related to the coronavirus – i.e. how long could the pandemic last and what its ultimate impact will be on world economic grow.

Prithviraj Kothari is the author of this article. Find more information about Prithviraj Kothari.

Gold Remains Consolidated

By the time we reached mid-week, gold prices were pushed slightly down due to labour reports, controlled situation of the corona virus and lower demand.

Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday and continue to trade sideways. The Labour Department reported on Tuesday that Job openings dropped in December to their lowest level in two years. Total vacancies now at 6.4 million, down from nearly 6.8 million in November. Wall Street estimates had been for about 6.9 million. Vacancies continued to decline in manufacturing with a 24% decline year-over-year. Overall, the hiring rate fell from 4.3% to 4%. The Job Openings and Labour Market Survey showed that total vacancies outnumber job seekers by nearly 700,000, down nearly by half from a few months ago.

Positive data released sent gold prices down.

Further, In the United States, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told Congress on Tuesday the U.S. economy is in a good place, but cited the potential threat from the epidemic and concerns about the economy's long-term health.

The corona virus epidemic continued to stifle activity in the physical gold markets in top bullion consumer China and Hong Kong this week, while demand was mixed in other Asian hubs. The death toll in mainland China reached 637 on Friday, with a total 31,211 cases, the World Health Organization chief said, while a Reuters tally showed 320 cases in 27 countries.

Gold was little changed on Wednesday, as equities rose after the number of new corona virus cases fell, while uncertainty over the economic impact of the outbreak underpinned bullion.

While the death toll exceeded 1,000, China's foremost medical adviser on the epidemic said infections may be over by April, with the number of new cases already declining in some places.

As the virus scare is fading out, gold seems to be on a consolidation phase.

But we still see support for gold as the negative knock-on effects of the virus are yet to be witnessed and further the cumulative impact of existing tariffs following the U.S.-China Phase 1 trade deal.

It’s quite possible that China might reduce the purchase of U.S farm products this year under the Phase 1 trade deal. The virus outbreak could further dampen the trade situation between these two countries.

Also keeping gold in check, the U.S. dollar stayed close to four-month highs after soaking up safe-haven flows as worries about the corona virus coincided with recent data showing the U.S. economy's strength.

Gold, which is often used as an insurance against economic risks, tends to appreciate on expectations of lower interest rates, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Prithviraj Kothari is the author of this article. Find more information about Prithviraj Kothari.

Gold Soon To Be The Premier Asset

Gold climbed for a fourth straight day as investors weighed the unfolding corona virus crisis, including a blunt warning from the head of the World Health Organization about the potential for more cases beyond China.

Prices rose as the global death toll from the outbreak topped 900 and the WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus voiced concern over the spread from people with no travel history to China, saying “we may only be seeing the tip of the iceberg.” Beijing will spend at least $10 billion to fight the outbreak.

Bullion’s trading near the highest since 2013 as investors assess the impact of the disease on global growth and appetite for risk, although concerns over weaker physical demand for gold in China is capping gains. The effects of the virus have presented a “new risk” to the outlook, according to the Federal Reserve, and the issue will probably be front and centre when Chairman Jerome Powell kicks off two days of Congressional testimony on Tuesday.

We have been time and again talking about the corona virus, its effect on China and on the global economy as a whole and what are the possible consequences of the same. Well even though this virus is confined to mainland China, it’s having spill over effects globally.

The recent lockdown has deeply affected the international supply chains. It’s like shutdown down the world. So many companies rely on Chinese manufactured goods that this kind of disruption is bound to have a hugely negative effect on other countries’ economies.  Further an increasingly panicked global population may eschew any Chinese goods for fear that they may be tainted with the virus, however unlikely this may be.

Let’s have a look as to how this lockdown is affecting the other parts and various industries-

• The scale of disruption in China is already staggering. Hyundai, the fifth-biggest global car maker, has been forced to close all its factories at home in Korea for lack of key components. Volkswagen, Toyota, General Motors and Tesla have all downed tools at their Chinese plants, as has Apple’s iPhone supplier Foxconn.
• There were news that Fiat Chrysler in the U.S. may have to halt production due to a lack of component availability from the Chinese manufacturers on which it relies.
• Reports suggest that as much as 90% of Chinese manufacturing exports have already been shut down as city after city goes into quarantine lockdown.  Many observers suspect, show over 40,000 confirmed cases of the virus and over 900 deaths so far and still rising.
• Apart from China, cases if corona virus have been reported in Hong Kong and Macau too. So far over 130 confirmed cases in 24 countries and, thankfully, only 1 death but it is early days and this may well be the tip of the iceberg (Reported cases in the UK doubled to 8 this morning).

Markets have stated to realize the serous effects this virus will have on the financial markets. We are expecting a met-down in the equities markets. Major market led by  high-flying stocks like Apple and Tesla which both have heavy dependence on Chinese manufacturing to maintain earnings levels, will lead to a downturn in Asian and European equities markets. This might initially benefit gold and silver but they can turn down sharply as good assets are generally sold along weak side ones during a liquidity crisis.

Down the line we’d be nervous about all commodities including the major safe-haven precious metals.  China is the world’s largest gold consumer and demand there is sure to be disrupted and unless this can be replaced by increased demand in the West and from Central Banks we are going to see a demand downturn in any case.  Perhaps the timing is lucky in that new mined supply appears as if it may have peaked, while lower prices, if they materialise, will probably reduce recycled supplies and perhaps see a consumption pick-up in India where high gold prices are said to have adversely affected local demand.

In such uncertain times fold is usually the go-to asset.

During the recession and inflationary crisis of 1978-1980, gold skyrocketed again, jumping 29% in 1978, 120% in 1979, and 29% again in 1980. During the crash of 1987, gold jumped 24%.

Another gold rally struck from 2002 to 2003, just after the collapse of the Dot Com Bubble, rising over 40% as the U.S. went to war with both Afghanistan and Iraq. It was also around this time that central banks began amassing gold reserves once again, but primarily among eastern nations like China and Russia. This gold buying spree has only expanded in recent years, with banks buying more gold in 2018 than they have in over five decades.

The next major gold market rally, triggered from 2009 to 2012, is well remembered by most of us. Prices jumped around 70% total during the onset of the credit crash.

Again, because central banks are buying exponentially, and because the global economic system has been in a constant state of distress since the crash of 2008. Gold prices are not going to drop back to pre-crisis levels when our economy is perpetually unstable and none of the problems from 2008 have been fixed.

Gold rallied from $1,200 in September of 2018 to nearly $1,600 in the span of a year, and central banks are continuing to buy regardless of the price increases. They seem to know something that most of us only suspect.

With the historic trends displayed plainly here, it is easy to predict what will happen next.
• The corona virus outbreak is about to be labelled an official pandemic.
• The Fed’s repo market stimulus has failed to quell liquidity issues within the U.S. banking system
• U.S. corporate debt and consumer debt is at all-time highs,
• The UK has just left the European Union with a No Deal Brexit (as predicted)
• The U.S. is initiating a troop build-up in the Middle East to surround Iran.

It was last during World War I that so many crises happened simultaneously. Not since World War I have we seen so many crisis events happening simultaneously.

It only makes sense that gold will once again become the premier asset for defending your savings.

Prithviraj Kothari is the author of this article. Find more information about Prithviraj Kothari.

Gold Demand May Rise Soon

Gold has experienced resurgence as a reserve asset – central banks have become net buyers over the past 10 years, and their holdings have reached levels not seen since the 20th century. This has several origins, among them growing geopolitical tension between regional blocs; the swelling share of negative-yielding fixed income securities; and the emergence of possible challenger currencies to ‘king dollar’, which holds a more than 60% share in global foreign exchange holdings.

Currently, all eyes are on headlines about the virus, many central banks may be dovish—which lowers other currencies, even as the U.S. seems to be the most liquid and safest for capital. All this is temporarily leaving gold buyers to seek other trading opportunities for now.

Price losses for the metal had worsened in the wake of data released Monday that U.S. manufacturers grew their businesses in January for the first time in six months. The survey by the Institute for Supply Management rose to 50.9% last month to 47.8%. The moves for bullion come after the most-active April contract saw a weekly climb of 0.6%, and a rise of about 3.8% for the month. The settlement level also marked the highest weekly price finish since March 2013.

Gold futures on Monday posted their first loss in four sessions, with haven demand for the metal taking a hit as U.S. equities partially bounced back from a corona virus-triggered selloff, and the U.S. dollar and government bond yields rose.

However, the spread of corona virus around the world continues to dominate commodity markets. The energy sector remains the focal point of the selling, with crude oil under pressure.

China’s National Health Commission on Sunday said cases of the novel corona virus reached 17,205, while the death toll was more than 360. Cases also have been reported outside the country, with the World Health Organization and Trump administration last week declaring public health emergencies.

Gold continues to shine amid the turmoil. The safe-haven asset has seen strong demand over the past week as investors rotate out of risky asset classes. This has seen the gold price push towards USD1, 600/oz. Dovishness from the US Federal Reserve has helped. Chair Powell said the central bank is carefully monitoring the epidemic and its effects on the US economy.

We expect a lower U.S. dollar over time, and this is one of the major drivers of gold and silver prices. Second, as long as the amount of negative-yielding government bonds is substantial, precious metals and commodities are attractive to invest in (not negative-yielding). Third, major central banks will likely continue to support their economies, and higher official rates are nowhere on the horizon. Fourth, we expect some pick up in jewellery demand from China.

While we expect these events will continue to play a major role in determining precious metals prices in 2020, there are, of course, other variables to consider as well, particularly the underlying fundamentals of supply and demand.

What is more, the recent increase of unrest in the Middle East is slowly building in a premium in precious metals prices, first and foremost supporting gold and silver as a hedge against increases in systemic risks. The political rhetoric is surely heating up in Iran and Iraq following the US attack on a high military Iranian official and, together with the ongoing trade deal saga, these two events could well be the main catalyst for higher precious metals prices in 2020.

Gold has been going strong.  It has always been looked over as a hedge tool. Gold can provide a protection cover against systematic risks, stock market pullbacks, and recessions. It even lowers the risk in a portfolio and efficiently manages diversification.  It further provides liquidity to meet liabilities during times of market stress.

Research shows, an allocation to gold in a typical stock/bond portfolio has provided better returns than those with little or no gold. It also lowers your risk.

Portfolios that include gold have fallen less in bear markets and risen more in bull markets. The long-term value of a portfolio is clearly enhanced by including gold.

And with continued escalation and unrest, demand for gold is expected to rise further as markets will rush towards this safe haven asset which is further expected to push prices high.

Prithviraj Kothari is the author of this article. Find more information about Prithviraj Kothari.

Pre-Budget Views 2020

There has been a steep decline in jewellery sales over 12 months, and jewellers are facing adverse impacts of the slowdown because of the increase in gold prices, and a slowing of the overall economy.  Moreover gold prices have sky rocketed over the past few months which has further dampened the demand.

At present, gold attracts an import duty of 12.5 percent and a GST of three percent.

This increase in customs duty for cut and polished coloured gemstone is the biggest hit. Additionally, the increase in import duty on gold has had a spill effect and made the grey market stronger. With these duties, it becomes difficult to compete in the world market and export, as China is a major competitor. In fact in the past few years China has overtaken India as the world’s largest consumer of gold.

The volatility in the markets has also pushed gold sales down. Even though safe haven demand is there but in the retail jewellery market, the sales haven’t picked up much.

In the run-up to the Union Budget speech on February 1, 2020, Indian micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in the gold jewellery segment are feeling the impact of the decline in jewellery sales. The country saw demand for gold falter in the second half of 2019. Some factors for the decline include a rise in international prices (India imports most of its gold), hike in import duty from 10 percent to 12.5 percent, and liquidity crunch in the Indian economy. And, the Union Budget 2020 could go a long way in alleviating some of these concerns if it focuses on lowering import duty on gold.

Jewellers hope for the volatile market to settle down. They are expecting Union Budget 2020 to come up with good policies to bring stability and better phases in the jewellery industry as there is an immediate requirement to cut down custom duty and import duty charges.

Hoping that this year’s Budget will provide for a reduction in duty on imports of cut and polished diamonds. The gold and jewellery industry is going through one of its toughest phases. However, gold jewellery exports grew 21 percent from November 2018 to November 2019, according to the Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) data.

The Union Budget 2020 is expected to provide for a reduction in the import duty on gold because there is an immediate need for a cut in customs duty.

A possible import duty cut on gold in the upcoming Budget could curb smuggling and boost sagging imports. Commerce Ministry has reportedly asked for a reduction in import duty on gold to boost exports and manufacturing in the gems and jewellery sector. Import duty on gold was increased from 10 to 12.5 percent in the previous Budget.

Despite what the Budget may hold for the segment, volume growth for jewellers is expected to increase on the back of reintroduction of low-cost gold metal loans and likely stabilisation of gold prices at lower levels.

Prithviraj Kothari is the author of this article. Find more information about Prithviraj Kothari.

Gold Is On The Move

So far in 2020, the yellow metal has been the best market to trade. Buy the dip has been the best possible scenario. We still have that scenario playing out. Gold is on the move. Risk aversion is pushing up gold prices. Weekend news showed that (the corona virus) is still spreading in many countries across the globe and this could impact economic activity and market sentiment.

As concerns about the impact of corona virus mount, investors have boosted holdings in exchange-traded funds backed by gold to the highest since November, with the assets now less than 25 tons shy of a record. Adding to the momentum, the Federal Reserve is gearing up for its first rate-setting meeting this year, where it’s expected to maintain easy monetary policy, and the World Gold Council will offer its assessment of global demand trends.

Gold jumped 1% on Monday to a near three-week high as growing concerns that the corona virus outbreak could impact the global economy pushed investors to safe havens.

Spot gold was up 0.8% at $1,582.41 per ounce during Mondays trading hours; having earlier touched it’s highest since Jan. 8.

The widely spreading corona virus has prompted the Chinese authorities to introduce travel restrictions across 10 cities, affecting up to 40 million people according to some reports, in the middle of the country’s most important holiday season, the Lunar New Year. Even Shanghai's Disneyland, one of the country’s most popular tourist destinations, has been shut.

Fears of a global contagion from the corona virus has plummeted stock markets worldwide. There’s nothing like a global contagion to get gold buyers to pile back into the safe haven. The yellow metal hit two-week highs on Friday, creeping toward the $1,580-per-ounce level targeted by gold bugs on worldwide fears over the economic fallout to the China-originated corona virus.

The death toll from the corona virus outbreak has risen to 81 in China, with 2,744 confirmed cases, and the virus has spread to more than 10 countries, including the U.S. and France.

Despite the strength of the greenback, the bullion price is taking advantage of this uncertain situation.

Markets are focused on news around the deadly corona virus. There will clearly be a significant economic impact, centered in China. A key question is the time it will take for the virus to be contained and one can only speculate at this stage.

Investors will be watching the U.S. Federal Reserve’s first policy meeting of this year on Jan. 28-29, where it is widely expected to keep rates unchanged.

In recent years, high interest rates, risk aversion stemming from the downturn in global trade, and support from earnings repatriation have supported the US dollar.

But over the coming years, US growth and interest rates will be closer to those elsewhere in the world, and uncertainty ahead of the US election and the waning effect of tariffs suggest a weaker greenback is likely.

The Fed at its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday use the same kind of cautious language heard by the ECB and BOC, then that could be the rocket fuel gold needs to sustain gains above $1600 per oz.

Prithviraj Kothari is the author of this article. Find more information about Prithviraj Kothari.

A Breakout In Gold Is Expected Soon

The gold price rose by 39% from the low in 2018 to its peak this month, as it jumped on the news that the US had assassinated an Iranian general. The subsequent retreat in the gold price shows that individual events do not usually move the price for long. However, a number of factors have combined to encourage safe-haven purchases of gold. Increasing political and economic uncertainty, more monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, falling bond yields and huge quantities of negative yielding debt have all played a part.

This week too we saw gold being influenced by an array of events. Gold prices rose to their highest in more than a week on Monday, after a missile attack in Yemen over the weekend strengthened geopolitical concerns and boosted the metal’s safe-haven appeal, while buying ahead of the Chinese New Year also lent support.

Spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,560.89 per ounce during Mondays trading sessions, after touching its highest since Jan. 10 at $1,562.51 earlier in the session.

The market is also going up because of central bank buying, geopolitical risks such as Yemen missile attack - all these factors are supporting gold.

And since Gold is considered a safe investment in times of political and economic uncertainty, an encouraged buying of the yellow metal was witnessed.

Geopolitical tensions around the world have risen and further eroded the fundamental outlook which is already burdened with unusually-high uncertainty. Investors may therefore be particularly sensitive to comments from officials that have implications for monetary policy.

After the US and Iran stepped back from further confrontation, the gold price has given back some of the gains made following the US missile strike that killed an Iranian general. A more time-consuming correction is possible before gold attempts to reach new high.

We all know that a number of factors combined have resulted in safe haven purchases for the yellow metal; similarly, a number of factors will be the reason behind a rally in gold prices that is expected to happen soon.

TRADE TENSIONS- EU-US trade tensions may soon begin to escalate following a warning from the EU’s new trade chief Phil Hogan that the EU intends on retaliating with tariffs over WTO dispute with Boeing. Relations between Washington and Brussels have been put on the backburner, though it may become the new trade war of 2020. A revived cross-Atlantic trade tiff would further undermine global growth and may push gold prices higher.

COMPANY GAINS- A number of major corporations will be releasing their earnings this week, including giants such as Netflix and IBM. Despite equity markets reaching record-breaking highs, earnings reports are expected to be relatively flat. The worst-than-expected prints could make investors turn to the Fed in hopes that the poor data will make them more inclined to further ease credit conditions. Gold may rise on this far-reaching hope.

INDUSTRIAL DATA -A flow of PMI data from the US, France, Germany, Euro zone, UK and Australia will also be published this week which may reinforce slowdown fears and inflate easing bets. Gold prices may subsequently rise alongside demand for anti-fiat hedges. Given the fundamental risks laying ahead in 2020, the tepid stabilization in PMI may be less of a turning point and more a moment of calm before the prior trend resumes.

FED AND INFLATION- one of the US Federal Reserve’s two major goals is to maintain the inflation rate near 2%.  Because, you know, high inflation is bad. If the inflation rate went up to 4, 5, or 6%, suddenly a lot of people would find themselves in the poor house.  Basically inflation destroys savings because the purchasing power of the dollar you saved years ago is now greatly diminished.

History shows that gold prices rise to keep pace with inflation over time.  So if we move into a period of higher inflation, we can expect gold to go up.

Now, Gold traders will have to observe critical ranges for a breakout. If gold crosses $1563- $1565 then it will break out for big. So be tight, observe gold to take best advantage of the current situation and similarly in the local markets too it is expected cross Rs.40300 per 10g, whenever the breakout is witnessed.

Prithviraj Kothari is the author of this article. Find more information about Prithviraj Kothari.

Commodities AS A Whole Had A Mostly Positive 2019

Gold, meanwhile, had its best year since 2010, climbing as much as 18.31 percent. The yellow metal’s role as an exceptional store of value shined brightly in the second half of the year when the pool of negative-yielding debt around the world began to skyrocket, eventually topping out at around $17 trillion in August. On the news last week that Iran launched a counterstroke against U.S.-occupied military bases in Iraq, the safe haven briefly broke above $1,600 an ounce for the first time since April 2013.

In the past two decades, gold has helped investors limit market volatility and portfolio losses. Between 2000 and 2019, the precious metal’s average annual price was down in only four years. Put another way, gold was up on average in four out of every five years—a remarkable track record.

Last week gold prices surged to seven-year highs after Iran launched a missile strike near U.S. troops in Iraq. Since then, prices have retreated, settling around $1,550 an ounce level as upbeat risk sentiment not the market working against the precious metal.

Gold prices continued to slip on Tuesday with overall global risk appetite still on the up as the markets eye an interim trade deal between China and the United States due to be signed in Washington on Wednesday.

The US has also dropped its designation of China as currency manipulator, which has lightened the mood still further, with markets sensing that there’s some chance of broadly improved relations between the world’s two largest economies.

Gold rallied nearly 4% in December, mainly in the second half of the month, and recently moved to an intraday high of US$1,613/oz as the US-Iran confrontation unfolded. We believe there are a few likely reasons for the move:

• A technical breakout

• Bullish positioning in derivatives markets

• Light trading volumes

• Portfolio rebalancing at the end of 2019 especially as investors hedged risk asset allocations-

• Federal Reserve (Fed) repo activity

Berenberg Cited several “volatile situations in the global geopolitical space” behind its higher forecast, notably ongoing US-China trade negotiations, the potential outcome of Brexit, rising tensions between the US and Iran and the US elections in November.

“It feels that there should be some form of resolution between the US and China over trade in the coming months, and further clarity on Brexit over the same time period; an easing of tensions is likely to weigh somewhat on gold…However, in the background, there remain elevated tensions between the US and the Middle East, and the escalation of tensions between the US and Iran (which have eased somewhat over the last two days) remains an upside risk for gold”, the bank said.

They added that the victory of a “hard left president” in the US elections such as Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren is “likely” to result in stronger gold prices on the potential for radical changes to US government policy.

Meanwhile, Berenberg’s analysts also said it was likely the Federal Reserve will leave US interest rates unchanged until 2021, which they viewed as “supportive for gold” as the metal tends to suffer when interest rates rise.

They added that a pickup in US inflation could potentially provide scope for further interest rate cuts, which could push gold prices upwards.

Rebalancing ahead of 2020

We saw a pullback in investor demand for gold in November, as demonstrated by outflows in gold-backed ETFs and a reduction in COMEX net longs. This reversed in December, with net longs moving back near all-time highs and gold-backed ETF holdings reaching all-time highs.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that investors may be inclined to maintain exposure to risk-on assets such as stocks, but not without hedging their portfolios in preparation for potential pullbacks – especially given the high level of geopolitical and geo-economic risks that have been carried over from 2019 And data suggests that gold may be a recipient of some of this activity.

Fed repo activity

The Fed began reducing their balance sheet in 2018, but reversed this decision in the second half of 2019 In particular, they began regular repurchase (repo) market injections totalling nearly US$500bn in the fourth quarter. This activity has continued into 2020 and has been described by some market participants simply as another form of quantitative easing (QE) – often dubbed “QE light” – and causing some investors to worry about liquidity in the Treasury market as a whole. And, historically, expansions of QE have led to increases in the gold price.

Increased geopolitical risk-

Tensions in the Middle East, driven by the US-Iran confrontation, supported safe-haven flows, pushing the gold price to a six-year high. While a more conciliatory tone by President Trump has recently eased concerns and pushed the price down to the US$1,550/oz level, gold remains up by approx. 2.4% as of 9 January 2020.

Prithviraj Kothari is the author of this article. Find more information about Prithviraj Kothari.