Gold declined but still a favorite

Since the turn of the century, the gold industry has experienced a roller coaster ride, with prices rising from $255 an ounce in 2001 to highs of $1,906 a decade later, before falling to $1,056 by December 2015. After a gap of almost 4 years, gold is being seen on the green path once again.

Lately, Gold prices have largely been stuck in a range of between $1,217 to $1,330. Though gold started the year on a positive note, last week it did witness a decline in prices.

The sentiments continued to flow in this week too. Gold prices slipped on Monday and they further slipped for a fourth straight session on Tuesday as recent upbeat economic data and signs that Washington and Beijing were making headway in a nearly year-long tariff skirmish boosted risk sentiment.

The main reason for the decline in gold prices were the data numbers coming in from world economies.

Pressures were created on gold as improved economic data came in from China. China reported better-than-expected credit and export figures last week that allayed concerns regarding the pace of economic growth.

• Coming to the U.S., the dollar held firm on Friday after strong U.S. labour and inflation data soothed concerns about the world’s largest economy. As we all know that dollar and gold are inversely related and hence a strengthening dollar pulled gold prices down.
• Furthermore, falling oil prices weighed on commodity-linked currencies such as the Canadian and Australian dollars.
• The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits fell to a 49-1/2-year low last week, pointing to sustained labor market strength that could temper expectations of a sharp slowdown in economic growth.
• U.S. producer prices increased by the most in five months in March, but underlying wholesale inflation was tame.
• U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday expressed a willingness to hold a third summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un but said in talks with South Korean President Moon Jae-in that Washington would leave sanctions in place on Pyongyang.
• European Union countries gave initial clearance on Thursday to start formal trade talks with the United States, EU sources said; a move designed but not guaranteed to smooth strained relations between the world’s two largest economies.
• The six-month delay of Britain’s exit from the European Union avoids the “terrible outcome” of a “no-deal” Brexit that would further pressure a slowing global economy but does nothing to lift uncertainty over the final outcome, the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday
• Moreover, growing optimism over a US-China trade war resolution strengthened the dollar.
• Better economic conditions stoke investors to pivot towards equities that are interest-bearing assets, and shun the non-yielding bullion

But still gold is expected to perform better in the following months. Gold has been witnessing a great start in the current year and many market players believe that it will continue to do so in the near term-  mainly due to
• Concerns over global economy
• Geopolitical issues
• Federal Reserves less aggressive stance on interest rates. The view is that there won’t be any interest rate rises this year, which again will be supportive for the precious metals sector
• Global uncertainties
• Central bank buying
• US China trade war
• De dollarization

Gold is expected to garner safe-haven interest as investors look to protect themselves against an impending recession which might even push gold above $1400 an ounce by the second half of 2019.

Time to Divert Our Attention Outside America

The precious metal is down 8% so far in 2018, and nearly 14% on an annualized basis - making it the worst-performing major asset class this year.

Gold has weakened this year alongside many emerging-market currencies because the dollar strengthened and US interest rates became more attractive. On August 13, gold fell below the key technical level of $1,200 an ounce for the first time since early 2017. It traded up 0.7% to $1,202.90 an ounce on Friday.

It may have gained by the end of the week, but it’s still a weak asset currently.  Spot gold was up one percent at $1,196.39 an ounce during Friday’s trading session, about 3 percent higher than last week’s 2018 low below $1,160.00.

Growing U.S. political uncertainty, reinforced by the legal woes of two of U.S. President Donald Trump’s former advisers this week, is keeping the dollar under pressure despite tighter U.S. monetary policy, analysts say.

By Friday, 27th August, gold prices saw a rally as investors took Powell’s speech as a more dovish stance, which seemed to rule out the need for a more aggressive tightening as he suggested a lack of inflationary pressure and put the warning for further gradual increases in interest rates on a continuation of current economic strength and a strong labor market.

In his speech, Powell indicated that there was no clear sign of an acceleration above the Fed’s 2% inflation objective and said there did not seem to be an elevated risk of the economy overheating.

Gold prices traded higher on Friday as Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the central bank’s plans for gradual interest rate hikes would be conditioned on the continued strength of the U.S. economy and labor market.

Higher interest rates tend to weigh on demand for gold, which doesn’t bear interest, in favour of yield-bearing investments. The remarks also weighed on the dollar, extending the greenback’s losses and increasing the demand of the precious metal for holders of foreign currencies.
As the most recent FOMC statement indicates, if the strong growth in income and jobs continues, further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will likely be appropriate.

Gold is usually favoured as a safe haven during market turmoil, but even all the back and forth on trade between the US and China has not stirred up a bid for the metal as the dollar still hold strong.
The commodities market has been adversely impacted by the strong dollar and the discussion of a trade war possibility, which may already be happening. With the economies of America, Europe and Asia picking up, most investors are asking, why buy gold or silver? The dollar is the key. When it starts dropping, we will see the price of gold, silver and all commodities improve.

Many foreign governments and companies have borrowed in dollars, thinking the dollar will go lower relative to their own currencies. But the dollar has done the complete opposite. So now, these borrowers of $US are being squeezed as their borrowing costs have risen dramatically. This is creating financial distress in certain corners of the world. At these locations the price of gold will be seen climbing quickly.

But when will this happen? Will the dollar weaken? When will we see the gold prices going up? Will global uncertainties rise? There are many questions floating in the market currently.
And hence we all need to divert our attention to some of the developing problems that exist outside America and how it will impact America and furthermore the dollar.