Last year was very challenging for gold. At the same time it was a great platform for the yellow metal to once again prove its safe haven appeal. Investors jumped in to the market, shifted funds from other assets class to gold. There was significant portfolio diversification that was witnessed. While other assets were struggling to sustain, gold and other precious metals were taking complete advantage of the pandemic.
Almost a year down the line and gold has a completely different story to tell. Gold seems to be losing its shine as it declines. While gold has reached its life time high of $2000 in August 2020, today it lies at $1850.
Top gold dealers in India and across the globe are of the opinion that the massive stimulus packages and renewed animal spirits have seen its price fall. Some believe that this downfall will continue at least for the next 6 months owing to the following reasons-
US Dollar- dollar and gold are always inversely proportional. A strong dollar is bad for gold, since it makes the metal more expensive for those buying in other currencies. Better GDP growth and high US treasury yields will result in a strong dollar and a weakening gold.
Risk Taking- there are many factors that will compel investors to increase their exposure to riskier assets at the expense of gold.
- Fiscal stimulus
- Monetary support
- Vaccination
- Positive growth and revenue
These all will lead to a shift in focus from gold to other assets.
Even though the above mentioned factors compel us to believe that gold will gradually lose its lustre, but we can’t forget the much known fact that gold has always remained consistent since ages. Precious yet durable, finite yet accessible enough to be traded, bullion of gold is worth roughly the same now as it has always been. It has time and again proven itself able to withstand volatility while other assets rise and fall.
Many investors and RSBL analysts still have faith in the yellow metal and believe that this downfall is just a bubble and gold will soon recover and cross new highs. Gold has been facing challenges but the larger picture seems to be different
Equities- Even if equities can continue their forward momentum, a rise in inflation looks increasingly likely. Inflation would be bad news for traditional asset classes (bonds in particular), but good for gold, which would see its value rise at the expense of the dollar’s. It would also be unaffected by any change in interest rates while shares could suffer.
Crypto currency- The value of crypto currencies is almost entirely speculative. That is to say, whereas an asset like gold finds value in its commercial and industrial uses, Bit coin’s lies solely in what people are willing to pay for it.
Risk taking- gold has always been used as a hedge tool against volatility. The basic appeal of being a safe haven asset has always been alive in gold. This means that even when risk appetites are highest, there is always a good case for holding at least part of a balanced portfolio in gold.
All in all, the noise in the market says that gold is here to stay and whatever be the global situations it will benefit gold in all forms.
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