-By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)
For so many years, gold has given gains and has also been the highest return generating asset in its class. But this trend seems to come to an end now where majority of the market believes that gold is now set to enter the bear market after 13 long years.
Varied reasons are responsible for this sentiments-
A loose monetary policy, continued fear of a further and worse economic crisis due to weak global economic growth prospers and continuous prediction of impending inflation and devaluation of fiat currencies, these are the major reasons apart from the minute ones responsible for creating belief in the market that the upswing for gold has come to an end.
Bullion surged 70 percent from the end of 2008 through June 2011 as the Fed bought debt and kept interest rates near zero percent to boost economic growth amid the most-severe global recession since World War II.
Interest rates have been kept low by the fed's massive bond buying programme and this has always supported bullion.
But now there is uncertainty over the market that the Fed may soon start tapering its bond buying programme either in march or may be soon in December. This picture will get clear in the coming Fed Meeting to be held on 17-18 December.
Spot gold hit a three week high on Tuesday trading at $1260.24 during the day, It rose as much as 1.6 per cent. This rise was seen gaining momentum, after the market's recent short-covering rally while investors and analysts speculated over the timing of U.S. monetary stimulus reduction
Just after a gain of two days, gold slipped on Wednesday as short-sellers rushed to cover bets on sharp price falls, as a tentative U.S. budget deal returned the focus to prospects for the Federal Reserve to curb monetary stimulus.
As soon as the US retail sales data was out on Thursday, gold fell 2 per cent. The data boosted the dollar and fueled expectations that the Fed could reduce its bond buying programme in somewhere in December itself.
The US data released in Thursday, showed that retail sales had climbed 0.7 per cent. Many traders and analysts in the market are living with the belief that the Fed may start scaling back its bond purchases at the forthcoming meeting to be held on Dec 17-18. This decision would be based on positive economic data coming in from the US on employment, housing, construction, manufacturing and services sector. Another factor that prompts the Fed to taper QE is the recent budget agreements that shows hope of a shutdown being overcome.
Though gold rose one per cent on Friday after a two day plunge. the marketers still believe that gold is subject to further downfall in the coming week as we witness one of the most important meetings of the Fed. This shall hopefully be a fate deciding factor for the bullion market.
Apart from the retail sales data, some important news came in from the SPDR Gold Trust- the biggest golf ETF. It states that the holding in the SPDR gold trust had fallen the most in nearly two months in Thursday. The limited inflows has restricted an upward movement in gold prices.
But in the Asian markets gold was seen selling at high premiums. Premiums on the Shanghai Gold Exchange for 99.99 percent purity gold picked up to $10 an ounce from $7 in the previous session.
In a sign of the toll that labour unrest in South Africa is taking on mining companies, North am Platinum said on Friday it expected to lose 500 million rand ($48 million) this year due to a strike by more than 7,000 employees and that talks to end the walk-out would resume only next year.
Moreover, there were reports out that North Korea is selling huge quantity of gold to China because of a possible economic crisis in the country. If at all this news its true and it will be a significant driving point for precious metals.
The trade range for gold is $1210- $1270 an ounce in the international markets and Rs.29000 to Rs.31,000 per 10 gram the domestic markets
The primary purpose of this blog (Prithviraj Kothari's view on Bullion Markets- MD,RSBL (Riddisiddhi Bullions Ltd.)) is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.
- Previous blog -
"Frenzy Friday"
http://www.riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2013/12/frenzy-friday.html
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