MODIfying India

-By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

Firstly, heartiest congratulations to Mr. Narendra Modi on his historic win. It was a time for celebration for entire India. messages, jokes, headlines etc were exchanged as Mr. Narendra Modi enjoyed a momentous win in the worlds largest democracy.

As India welcomes its most awaited PM with open arms, we saw Mr. Modi's effect extending across all assets class.

Friday at the prospect of a stable government led by Mr. Modi, whose own state, Gujarat, prospered under his leadership. stocks and the rupee jumped on optimism that Modi will make good on campaign promises to create jobs and attract foreign investment in all sectors except for multi-brand retail.

Indian rupee also benefited, strengthening to an 11-month high of 58.63 rupees to the U.S. dollar Friday. and Sensex sky rocketed at 25,000 (1400 points up.) while results were still being out.

This appreciation of the rupees pushed bullion prices down.

Gold and silver tumbled terribly on Friday. Though in the international market gold was at a weekly gain, in India , the prices declined as the rupee strengthened. Gold plunged almost 350 rupees and silver was down 825 rupees on the commodities exchange. Meanwhile, in the international market gold was playing a different move.

After dropping more than 1 percent on Wednesday, spot gold prices gained on Thursday as investors digested comments by Federal Reserve chair person that central banks are in no rush to reduce the size of its balance sheet. 

The yellow metal was also supported by escalation of geo-political tensions as pro-Moscow separatists in eastern Ukraine ignored a call by Russian President Vladimir Putin to postpone a referendum on self-rule, a move that could lead to war. However, comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's that the bank may act to stem falling inflation at its June meeting knocked the euro and the strength in dollar capped sharp gains in prices.

Gold prices fell on Thursday on positive US unemployment claims data which weakened the precious metals complex while dollar strength added to the bearish sentiments.

Stronger growth is expected post the poor winter growth. backed up by data this week showing strong housing starts and an uptick in consumer prices, might move up the Fed's plans for raising benchmark interest rates from near zero.

Half of the sates in US now have unemployment rates below 6 per cent. This figure shows that the jobs market in US is improving but at a slow pace. While employers in 39 states added jobs, we see that hiring too is picking up well.

On Friday, Gold saw slight gains in Asia before it fell to $1291.95  and then bounced back to $1296.09 in the next four hours of trade, but it then dropped to a new session low of $1288.02 after  housing data was released and the yellow metal ended with a loss of 0.19%.  Silver slipped to as low as $19.271 and ended with a loss of 0.62%.

The Economy

Report	For	Reading	Expected	Previous
Housing Starts	Apr	1072K	975K	947K
Building Permits	Apr	1080K	1008K	1000K
Michigan Sentiment	May	81.8	84.5	84.1

Source- http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeeker/1400271241.php

For now, the gold market’s key drivers are, first and foremost, the flow of U.S. economic indicators as they affect expectations about prospective Federal Reserve monetary policy . . . and, second, of a more temporary nature, the ebb and flow of geopolitical anxieties arising from events in and around Ukraine.

Now that India has formed  a stable government and that the world picture is minutely fading and getting clear, market players are once again expected a rally in gold prices.

Reasons Being- 

Import duty reforms in India- The his morning, for example, as I write the news has come through that India’s ruling Congress party has conceded defeat in the world’s biggest democratic election to Narendra Modi’s BJP which may even win enough votes to take power on its own without its coalition partners. The BJP is thought to be more sympathetic to gold and could repeal, or reduce, the import restrictions that have led to India falling from first place as the world’s biggest gold consumer. 

This will lead to a rise in demand for gold from India which in turn will push gold prices high.

Physical Demand- Demand for gold from China is also expected to provide support for gold. This factor will give gold a wild card entry into the bulls market. over the next three to five years the demand from Asia and, also from Central Banks which have been buying gold rather than selling it over the past couple of years, will actually be sufficient to drive the gold price higher.

U.S. Economy- Many traders expect the US economy to deteriorate further which will compel the Fed to rethink about its policy prospects. The recent statistical improvement in the U.S. economy is little more than a bounce back from the past winter’s weather-induced economic chill. 

As a more realistic view of economic prospects takes hold, the financial markets will re-assess expectations of Fed policy – and this could be the catalyst triggering a resumption of gold’s long-term bull market. 

At the same time, equities are due for a setback – perhaps mild, more likely not so gentle. Either way, the competition for investment funds between equities and gold – a competition that equities have won in recent years – will shift increasingly toward bullion

when we expect to see a deterioration in the economic indicators and a reassessment of Fed policy prospects.

De- Dollarization- Russia is actively pushing on with plans to put the US dollar in the rear-view mirror and replace it with a dollar-free system. Or, as it is called in Russia, a “de-dollarized” world.

Russian Ministry of Finance wants to reduce the share of dollar denominated transactions and is hence ready to green light a plan to radically in the role of Russian ruble in export operations. Dollar will then be replaced by gold. This too will give a support to gold prices.

Geo-political tensions in Russia-  as we all know, tensions in Russia can escalate any moment thus increase the chances of a war. Any spark in the geo-political crisis in Russia will shoot up gold prices.

Meanwhile, gold is expected to range between $1272 to $1310 in the international market and Rs. 28,000- Rs.29,000 in the domestic market. 

On the other hand silver is expected to range between $18.80-$20.00 and Rs.40,000- Rs.42,500 in the international and domestic markets respectively.

The primary purpose of this blog (Prithviraj Kothari's view on Bullion Markets - MD, RSBL(Riddisiddhi Bullions Ltd.)) is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

- Previous blog- "Gold on a see-saw"

http://www.riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2014/05/gold-on-see-saw.html

LET'S GET GOLD !!

-By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

Look in to the past- it was Feb 2013....Look in to the present- it is Feb 2014- Gold has risen 11 % since the beginning of the year....

Gold has shown some remarkable performances Since Jan-

1) Gold is up over 10 per cent since the 2013 closing lows

2)Gold crossed the $1300 mark for first time in over a year

3) The $1300 mark cross over has made gold reach a three month high in the week

4) this three month high posted its biggest weekly gains since October 2013.

Just "a" particular cause cannot be held responsible for this-

- Weak US economic data

- Deteriorating weather conditions in the US

- Political uncertainty in the Euro Zone

- SDPR posting its biggest inflow since December 2013

- Rising demand for gold from China

All of the above mentioned reasons are somewhere, directly or indirectly responsible for the rally in gold prices.

By the end of the week gold received a good booster by the weak US economic data release. The report shows that U.S. retail sales fell unpredictably in January. U.S*retail sales fell 0.4% in January*

Adding to it, more Americans filed for jobless benefits last week. Initial weekly jobless claims rose by 8,000 to 339,000, missing forecasts for a decline to 330,000.

The ICE dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six other currencies,declined to 80.308 from 80.718 late Wednesday. 

In all, the entire scenario gave a good push to gold prices. This weak economic development has once again raised questions over whether the world's biggest economy can sustain growth and made some investors hope the Fed would take a slower approach to tapering its bond purchases.

The disappointing U.S retail sales data weighed on the dollar, increasing the appeal for bullion, prices of which were sustained by the weak data releases from US as it reinforced the investors that Fed will take a slower approach to tapering its bond purchases.

Furthermore, extremely cold and unfavourable and unseasonable snowy conditions in US have hit the retails sales which has always been considered as a parameter to determine consumer spending. deteriorating conditions have also been a reason for a drop in sales.

Large parts of the United States have been gripped by freezing temperatures and snow storms, which caused investors to largely discount both the day's and other recent weak data that suggested the economy started the year on weaker footing.

shares in Europe dipped, as Italy was affected by the prevailing uncertainty  that raised worries about efforts to turn around Italy's sputtering economy.

However hopes once again prevailed as the way was left open for center left leader Matteo Renzi to take over, once Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta would tender his resignation.

Additionally, SPDR- world's largest gold backed exchange traded fund, posted its biggest inflow since late December 2013. Holdings rose 7.50 tonnes to 806.35 tonnes on Thursday,

 This further strengthened investors sentiments.

While in China, consumer demand has always been rising and it has now overtaken India as the largest bullion consumer as it topped 1000 tonnes for the first time in 2013.

In the physical markets, bullion was also underpinned after India's trade ministry said it has recommended easing curbs on gold imports, after a 77 percent drop in imports for January that helped narrow the country's trade deficit.

During times of economic turmoil, gold has always enjoyed the status of a safe haven asset and has always had an inverse relation with equities.

But an interesting fact to be noted was that as gold performed well, equities too were on a rise.

Indeed the recovery in the gold price has coincided with a 0.5-percentage-point increase in the U.S. equity risk premium and a decline in U.S. real yields. This has been a favourable atmosphere for gold prices to rise.

Other precious metals are on the rise with Palladium up for the 8th day in a row (the longest streak since July), Platinum up 6 days in a row (long since July) and Silver up 10 days in a row breaking $20.50.

Gold’s gains in 2014 have been helped by soft U.S. economic data and emerging-market stress, but the metal’s strength may not last once economic data improve again.

The underlying notion that central banks are slowing down their quantitative easing is boosting gold's appeal as an inflation hedge and alternative currency. 

    

Speculation that the Fed might hold off further reduction of stimulus had strongly supported gold by keeping interest rates at rock bottom while stoking inflation fears. 

There is no surety of how well and for how long will these gold prices be sustained. A we head towards March, weather conditions in US tend to improve and can once again boos consumer spending. the rapid rebound in the S&P 500 over the past week would suggest that the sources of support for the gold price from a rising equity risk premium may be coming to an end. 

Now we wait for March or rather lets march towards March !!

The primary purpose of this blog (Prithviraj Kothari's view on Bullion Markets- MD,RSBL (Riddisiddhi Bullions Ltd.)) is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

- Previous blog -  "Is the golden egg about to hatch??"

http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2014/02/is-golden-egg-about-to-hatch.html

IS THE GOLDEN EGG ABOUT TO HATCH?

- By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

This week gold was up almost two per cent - giving it the largest weekly gain in five weeks. Initially gold was almost unchanged for the week,  until the jobs report was out. Post the US Jobs data, gold rose on Friday, after they stated that job creation slowed  over the past two months. This created waves of speculation in the market that the Federal Reserve will not taper its current stimulus. 

Last week the Fed had released a statement that they will further taper its monetary stimulus program but given the slowing economic momentum, investors believe that this tapering will not take place in the near future.

Despite the slight fall in unemployment, the market's reaction to the low employment numbers was enough to pull up the prices of gold and silver. Other commodities prices and the major stock markets also rally.

Following gold, silver too was up nearly 5 per cent this week. This is the biggest weekly gain since mid-August.

Platinum also posted small gain for the week on supply worries due to a possible strike in south Africa. However, latest news about government-brokered talks between the world 3 largest platinum producers and the mine union AMCU (Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union). The talks were to end a two week wage strike. Speculations regarding the strike caused the upward movement of platinum prices. Platinum was trading up 0.5 per cent at $1,378.50 an ounce.

For gold, following were the factors responsible for the gains-

1) Tumbling world currencies

2) Tumbling assets in emerging markets

3) Disappointing US Jobs data- Data showed U.S. employers hired far fewer workers than expected last month—nonfarm payrolls rose by 113,000, well below the consensus of 185,000—although the unemployment rate hit a five-year low of 6.6 percent.*

'

4) World Stocks- European stocks bounced back after an immediate negative reaction to the data, which is seen as a key gauge of the U.S. labour market

5) High demand for gold from China on account of the Lunar year

China returned to the physical gold markets strongly on 7 February, after a week-long break, as banks and retailers moved to replenish stock following solid sales during the Lunar New Year holiday. An increase in premiums and trading volumes on The Shanghai Gold Exchange, indicated that jewellery and bullion sales during the new year holiday were robust in the world's biggest gold consumer.

Shanghai premiums for 99.99% purity gold climbed to $11 an ounce over London prices. They hovered at about $4 on 30 January just before China went on holiday. Trading volumes hit their highest in a month.

While in India, premiums fell to between $70 and $75 an ounce on 7th February, compared to $80 last week, owing to the higher availability of imported jewellery and smuggled goods.

Premiums across the rest of Asia remained largely stable.

Gold is expected to range between Rs.29,000- Rs.31,000 in the domestic market and $1231 to $1278 in the international market whereas silver is expected to range between Rs.43,000 to Rs.46,000 and $19.30 and $21.00 in the domestic and international markets respectively.

 Recent data covering the speculative positioning by hedge funds still points towards short covering as one of the main driver behind the current strength, but until a sustained break emerges, many traders will still be viewing higher prices as good entry levels for selling the market. 

The primary purpose of this blog (Prithviraj Kothari's view on Bullion Markets- MD,RSBL (Riddisiddhi Bullions Ltd.)) is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

- Previous blog - "Pause - Gold Price Rally"
http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2014/02/pause-gold-price-rally.html


*source-tradingnrg.com