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Showing posts with label dollar Federal Reserve. Show all posts
Showing posts with label dollar Federal Reserve. Show all posts

Tuesday, 11 October 2016

GOLD CRASHES BUT LANDS SAFELY: RSBL

 By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL











Gold prices have rallied 31.4 percent since the December low at $1,046.40. Safe-haven demand increased due to the following factors:
  • The US Federal Reserve proposed in December four rate increases in 2016 but at best it might deliver just one rise before the end of the year
  • Its inverse relationship with the dollar index has allowed gold to climb
  • The growing number of negative-yielding sovereign bonds has made safe-haven assets that bear no yield much more appealing
  • Pro-long utilisation of easy monetary policies by global central banks has eroded the value of paper money
  • Speculative funds as well as ETF investors have flocked into gold in search of yield
Though 2016 has been one of the best performing years for gold since 2012 the yellow metal registered its biggest daily drop in three years on last Tuesday and extended losses in the previous session after forecast-beating U.S. manufacturing data and comments from Fed officials saying there was a strong case for raising rates.

Gold fell for the eighth straight session on Thursday, slipping to a four-month low, pressured by a stronger dollar after U.S. weekly jobless claims fell and ahead of key data that could put the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates this year.

Gold fell for a ninth straight session on Friday on a stronger dollar ahead of key U.S. jobs data and the metal was headed for its worst weekly dip in over three years on increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate rise by year end.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits unexpectedly declined by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 249,000 for the week to Oct. 1. The U.S. dollar .DXY rose to the highest in more than two months against a basket of currencies as the data reinforced the view that the Fed would raise rates at the end of the year

This declined gold prices drastically but by the end of Friday gold futures staged a modest recovery amidst all these concerns.



Though the unemployment benefits declined, a slow growth rate was recorded for the third straight month in September. Gold prices got an initial boost from this.

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) intends to push on with its aggressive stimulus policy of negative interest rates and massive bond buying until it is happy with the outlook for euro zone inflation, senior officials said. ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio said a Bloomberg report suggesting that there was already consensus among ECB rate setters to reduce the 80 billion euros ($89 billion) monthly bond purchases was mistaken.
The report aggravated a sell-off in gold on Tuesday as the yellow metal fell over three percent to its worst one-day fall since September 2013. 


In the short term, gold prices might remain under selling pressure. While the metal could consolidate lower and put the bulls to the test, it remains to be seen how long or deep the consolidation process will be. But we remain friendly towards gold – our medium-to-long-term view remains bullish and we could see the metal seeking a strong technical support to rebound into.


But there are chances that gold might trade sideways in the short term keeping in mind the following factors-
  • Strained projected longs show that this trade is very much overcrowded. With no fresh buyers, the path of least resistance is downward
  • Profit-taking could be a theme and, should panic ensue, panic selling could escalate as speculators and ETF investors are sitting on large unrealised profits
  • The bulls’ bounciness has not really been tested and a mild correction/pullback should do the overall bull structure a lot of benefit
  • Physical demand has been subdued due to high future prices – the current rally has not had the backing of strong physical up-take
  • The Fed has armed its policymakers to prepare the market with combative messages that the US economy is primed for a 25-basis-point-rate rise before the end of 2016
These put a limitation to the bullish trend for gold. Nonetheless as we approach towards the last quarter of 2016 we all hope that it ends on a similar note as its beginning.




The primary purpose of this article by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.
Previous blog:
"Volatile Markets: RSBL"
http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2016/10/volatile-markets-rsbl.html

Monday, 19 September 2016

BULLISH SENTIMENTS FOR GOLD: RSBL

 By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL







Recently gold has been struggling to climb up due to the recurrent changes in the expectations of an interest rate hike. There is quite a possibility that market players are paying too much heed to the whole interest rate scenario and in turn missing on the bigger picture.
Nonetheless, Gold continues to work lower alongside the rest of precious metals – a resilient dollar and rising US real rates have prompted traders to unwind their long positioning. Investors have become increasingly edgy ahead of the conclusion of the Fed and the BoJ meetings

The spot gold price inched lower during Asian trading hours on Friday amid Mid-Autumn festival holidays in the region.
Spot gold was last at $1,314.66-1,315.00 per ounce, down $1.17 from Thursday’s close.
The spot gold price had tumbled to a week’s low of $1,307.75 on Thursday on selling pressures following a brief spike to $1,328.10 sparked by weak US retail sales data.
In data released Thursday-

  • US retail sales in August undershot at -0.3 percent
  • Core retail sales in August undershot at -0.1 percent.
  • Industrial production month-over-month in August also disappointed at -0.4 percent
  • The US PPI in August was unchanged; a 0.1-percent gain from the previous month has been expected.
  • The core PPI – excluding food and energy costs – was in line at 0.1 percent.
  • The Empire State manufacturing stood at -2.0 missed the expected -0.9
  • The Philly Fed manufacturing index at 12.8 beat the predicted 1.1.
  • Capacity utilization rate in August stood at 75.5 percent, a touch below the 75.8 percent
  • Weekly unemployment claims for September 1-8 in at 260,000 were just below the forecast 262,000 and, more importantly, the psychological 300,000 mark.
  • Lastly, the current account balance in June was in line with consensus at -$120 billion. Business inventories month-over-month was unchanged in July, missing the 0.1 percent forecast.




There was disappointment in the markets when the data was released that showed signs of a softening US economy,.aThe US economy has recently shown signs of softening – data including retail sales, its PPI and industrial production have undershot.
While disappointing numbers have lowered the likelihood of an imminent Fed rate increase - for September was just 12 percent, November was 19.3 percent and December was 46.2 percent. Earlier this week, majority had expected a rate hike in December.

With such soft data coming in from the US, expectations have largely diminished towards the Fed doing anything in September and the market is drifting back towards the view they might do nothing for quite a while.

Some even feel that markets are overeating to a potential rate hike and giving too much attention to it, thus ignoring other crucial factors that have the potential to influence gold prices.
The market is once again divided between the supported of bulls and bears for gold. The ones that are bullish are not worried about gold’s recent downtrend. What is the most important factor for investors is that the gains seen so far are sustainable and that gold has more or less stabilised before it takes that long jump to rally.
They believe Fresh disappointing US data has reinforced our view that the Fed should remain on hold in September, resulting in renewed weakness in the dollar and US real rates and prompting fresh buying in gold.
Moreover, demand for gold from China and India is expected to rise over the months to come which will further boost gold prices higher. The market is  moving towards to a festive season and this period of the year has generally seen demand for gold rising and this rise in demand will make up for the weakness gold has faced over 2016.

Given that gold is heavily influenced by fluctuations in the dollar and US real rates, we are not surprised by the metal continuing to weaken. But the bullish supporters for gold also believe that this weakness is temporary and is currently driven by a stronger dollar and higher US real rates
Our big-picture outlook remains bullish but more profit-taking could easily be triggered if the price action disappoints, as it may be starting to do.




The primary purpose of this article by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.
Previous blog:
"GOLD STABILISES: RSBL"
 http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2016/09/gold-stabilises.html

Thursday, 15 September 2016

GOLD STABILISES: RSBL

By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL










Though gold slipped consecutively for 3 days, past week ended on a positive note and stayed on track for a second successive weekly gain driven by diminishing expectations of a looming hike in U.S. interest rates.
The metal was up 0.7 percent during the week, holding on to nearly half the sharp gains it made on last Tuesday after a weak U.S. data instigated talks that the Federal Reserve will hold off raising rates at its September policy meeting.
Spot gold was down 0.25 percent at $1,334.60 an ounce at 1152 GMT on 9th September, while it peaked $1,352.65 an ounce after rallying 1.8 percent on Tuesday.

Reasons being the same- Fed Hike, US data, US dollar and ECB. These factors have been repeatedly influencing gold prices since quite some time. Yes I know that we have discussed these points time and again, and we all know that they  keep influencing gold prices but thee way and the extent to which they influence does change every week and hence we once again throw light on this week’s gold’s behaviour-

ECB- On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain its current bond-buying programme and kept interest rates unchanged, surprising investors who had expected another round of quantitative easing in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the single market.

The ECB’s unexpected stance led to a broad-based selloff in the commodities sector, while also fuelling a dollar rally – last trading at 95.45 on the dollar index, the highest point in a week.
Analysts and traders believe that The ECB’s decision would also increase the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve implementing a rate hike before the year end.

Global Data- Meanwhile in a slow data day, US wholesale inventories for July were unchanged, missing expectations of a 0.1 percent rise.
Overnight, China’s August CPI came in at 1.3 percent, below July’s reading of 1.8 percent and market forecast of 1.7 percent.
The Chinese August PPI fell 0.8 percent, improving from a drop of 1.7 percent in July and better than consensus of a one-percent drop. August, however, marked the 54th straight month of decline.
Weak global data pushed gold prices high over the week.


US Dollar- Prices have largely moved in concert with the dollar – against a basket of currencies it recently hit a multi-week low and was last trading at 94.56.  But investment demand in gold and its potential upside remain capped
The combative rhetoric – along with employment claims coming in better-than-expected at 259,000 – led to a minor dollar revival earlier during US trading hours.

Gold has rebounded strongly but have seem too stabilised between $1,355 and $1,375.25 and analysts believe to remain more or less in this trading range. But with the dollar looking weaker, we would not be surprised if gold prices work higher. The rest of the precious metals would follow suit.
Fed Hike- Richmond Fed President Jeffery Lacker said on Wednesday the case for a September hike was going to be “strong” and echoed his colleague Esther George who said that she too saw the US labour market approaching full employment.
Market participants currently see a 21 percent change of a US rate hike in September, with majority expecting it to happen in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Gold prices will trend higher still in near term, largely driven by lower Fed tightening expectations.  Gold prices are expected to boost further, given that the Fed is unlikely to move in September and the current probability of a September move is likely to ease further.


The Federal Reserve will meet on September 20-21 and again on November 1-2 before the country goes to the polls on November 8. Given the looming presidential election and the forecast-missing jobs report for August, the US central bank is widely expected to hold off on raising rates until next year at the earliest despite increasing hawkish rhetoric from FOMC members.


Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren, who shifted his stand in recent months in favour of monetary tightening, warned Friday that waiting too long to raise interest rates risks overheating the economy. Higher rates make bullion less competitive against interest-bearing assets. The comments come a day after the European Central Bank played down the prospect of an increase in asset purchases.

In the two-week run-up to the Fed’s next policy meeting, additional US economic data releases will further inform the market’s view of rate hike probabilities. At the current time, the greater likelihood is that there will be no September rate hike. If this continues to be the case, gold could potentially break out above the noted downtrend line and $1350 resistance level. In this event, the next major upside targets are at the mentioned $1375 high, followed by the key $1425 resistance objective.




The primary purpose of this article by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.
Previous blog:
"BULLION MARKET HIGHLIGHTS- DECEMBER 2015- AUGUST 2016: RSBL"
http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2016/09/bullion-market-highlights-december-2015.html


Sunday, 24 April 2016

BEST QUARTER FOR BULLION SINCE THREE DECADES: RSBL

By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL


Gold, one of this year’s best performing assets, has room to extend its advance, according to top-ranked forecasters, even as the rebound shows signs of losing steam.
While we see gold being one the best performing asset in its class in 2016, we also this year to be one of the best performing years for gold in the past 3-4 years.

Bullion had its best quarter in almost three decades through March after the metal regained its haven status amid volatile financial markets, the spread of negative interest rates and as the Fed pared back expectations of further rate increases. Holdings in exchange-traded funds have climbed about 20% this year and there appears to be a return of confidence.

While gold has strengthened since the start of the week, putting an end to last week’s selling pressure, it has underperformed the rest of the precious metals as speculative positioning is overstretched on the long side

When markets are volatile and sentiments are confusing, we see more than ne factor influencing the prices. The same has happened with gold. This week there was more than one factor that as responsible for the ups and downs in gold. Let’s have look at each of these individually.

ETF- In paper holdings, gold ETF’s tracked by Fast Markets remain near their 2016 high – stood at 1,806 tonnes as of April 21. Investors poured $13.6 billion this year into exchange-traded products tracking precious metals, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s almost 80% of the total inflows into commodity ETFs in 2016. This gave a boost to gold prices.

ECB- On Thursday, the outcome of the European Central Bank meeting was as expected when it kept its current monetary programme unchanged.
The gold price was relatively flat during Asian trading hours on Friday after the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its monetary policy unchanged at its Thursday meeting as expected.
Spot gold was last at $1,250.00-1,250.20 per ounce on Friday, up just $0.50 from Thursday’s close.

But ECB president Mario Draghi warned that deflationary signals remained despite negative interest rates and billions of euros in asset purchases, while economic growth stays “tilted to the downside”.
In March, the central bank lowered nominal interest rates further into the zero-bound, citing concerns of deflationary pressure and a divergence between the northern and southern economies.

Dollar- Gold held its ground despite a stronger US dollar following the unexpected fall in US unemployment figures. With ECB policymakers holding interest rates unchanged, there was little to excite investors,” said ANZ Research on Friday morning.
The US dollar index had recovered to a three-day high of 94.70 on Thursday, but slipped 0.15 percent to 94.49 so far on Friday
Gold futures dipped Friday morning in the US, with a strengthened dollar and increased risk tolerance combining to weigh on prices.

US Report- in US data released Thursday, weekly unemployment claims between 7-14 April came in at 247,000 below the forecast of 265,000 and the lowest since November 1973.
The Philly Fed manufacturing index, however, was at 1.6, a stark divergence from the 8.1 estimate. The CB leading index month-over-month in March slipped to -0.2 percent, off the estimate of a 0.4 percent uptick.

Other markets- demand concerns in China and emerging markets weighed on global growth.
Earlier, Japan’s reading came in at 48, below the previous figure of 49.1, while PMIs from across the Eurozone were mixed.
Turning to International markets, Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC-40 were down 0.6 percent and 0.5 percent respectively, while the dollar strengthened 0.4 percent to $1.1253 against the euro.

While the current risk-on environment – evident in stronger equities and lower volatility – is exerting downward pressure on safe-haven demand, bullish factors like a weaker dollar and stronger oil price continue to prevail.



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The primary purpose of this article by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

- Previous blog -
"Why Gold Is Sill Cheap"