INTEREST RATE HIKE TO HAPPEN SOON?: RSBL

By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD,RSBL

The downtrend in gold continues, with the metal charting its seventh straight session loss and expectations for the same trend continue for the coming week.

The gold price was steady on Friday morning, making time ahead of the much-awaited US non-farm payrolls data, set for release later in the day.

Gold was confined to a narrow trading range, before the release of the monthly US jobs report.

Once the report was out, gold prices plummeted as the market continued its recent downtrend.

Gold fell below $1,100 on Friday after US jobs data surprised with the upside, raising the chance that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by the end of the year.

Spot gold was last at $1,087.40/1,087.60 per ounce, down $17 on Thursday’s close. At its intraday low of $1,085.40, it was at its cheapest since August 7.

After the U.S. labor market revealed its fastest pace of job gains this year, gold, on Friday, witnessed its lowest level since early August.

Treasuries tumbled and the dollar strengthened, as the report alleviated concerns of a hiring slowdown after weaker payroll advances cooled in August and September. Such improvement means a go-ahead signal for the Fed officials, who last month held out the possibility of a December rate increase.

Since this report was considered as one of the key influential factors for a rate hike, let’s have a detailed look at the highlights:

•  The US economy added 271,000 jobs in October, while the unemployment rate fell to 5.0 percent
• The government revised the September jobs gain down to 137,000 from the previously reported 142,000
• The August gain was revised up to 153,000 from 136,000. Over the prior 12 months, employment growth had averaged 230,000 per month
•   Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dipped to a seven-year low of 5.0% in October, from the 5.1% level of the previous month
• Consensus expectations compiled by various news organizations called for non-farm payrolls to rise by between 177,000 and 190,000 in October, while the unemployment rate was expected to hold at 5.1%.
• In October, average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls rose by 9 cents to $25.20. The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls remained at 34.5 hours in October.
• The Labor Department said job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, food services and drinking places, and construction sectors.
• Employment in professional and business services increased by 78,000 in October, while healthcare added 45,000 jobs and retail trade added 44,000.
• Employment in mining continued to trend downwards in October with a 5,000 decline. The industry has shed 109,000 jobs since reaching a recent employment peak in December 2014, the government said
• The civilian labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.4% in October, following a decline of 0.2 percentage point in September, the Labor Department said. The number of persons employed part-time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) edged down by 269,000 to 5.8 million in October, the government added.
• In additional data from this morning, average hourly earnings month-over-month rose 0.4 percent, above consensus at 0.2 percent.

The 271,000 gain in payrolls was the biggest this year and exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists, a Labor Department report showed Friday.

The key highlight of the report was the non-farm payrolls number. It jumped 271,000 in October, far more than the 183,000 consensus expectations and was a clear negative for gold prices.

A better-than-expected payroll and hourly earnings number caused the dollar index to spike, which further pushed the gold prices down.

The surprisingly strong U.S. payrolls has had a big impact on FOMC rate hike expectations, sparking a new rally phase for the U.S. dollar against many currencies, including gold.

The marketplace deemed the report as positive and has prompted strong selling in the gold market, as investors do not see a 2015 rate hike as far-fetched.  

Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen has stated that 4.9 percent is the Fed’s estimation for full employment and reiterated before the report that she would prefer to raise rates by December.

Earlier this week, Yellen said a December rate hike was a “live possibility” and the policy-board would raise the federal funds rate if the data was sufficient.

This has intensified the speculation for a December rate rise and has pressured gold prices lower, with the shift in safe-haven buying probably adding further downside.

The Fed hasn’t lifted interest rates since 2006, but dovish members see low inflation as sufficient reasoning to hold-off until 2016.

Traders watch the monthly U.S. jobs report most closely as they try to gauge whether the Federal Open Market Committee might hike U.S. interest rates yet this year. One more jobs report, for November, is scheduled for release before policy-makers meet again in mid-December, which will once again be a crucial factor for raising interest rates in 2015.

The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

- Previous blog -
" Sovereign Gold Bonds Scheme by India & FED Rate Hike - Timing Matters: RSBL!"
http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2015/10/sovereign-gold-bonds-scheme-by-india_31.html

DATA- DEPENDENT GOLD

By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL

This week gold continued to hover around the levels of $1176.75 and broadly the key trade range for the yellow metal was $1170- $1175 an ounce.

Gold reached a four-month high of $1,192 on Thursday but was unable to maintain this level, because the US dollar was driven up by higher than expected US inflation figures for September, which in turn put pressure on gold.

Fed has set inflation target for years as it’s a part of the dual-mandate along with full employment. But Inflation has failed to meet the Fed’s target.

Persistently low inflation has led some Fed members to remain dovish on the apt timing for a stabilization of US monetary policy.

At the beginning of the week, Chicago Federal Reserve president Charles Evans said earlier today that he would prefer to wait until 2016 to raise interest rates, citing inflation as a central impediment.

Moreover, Data released on Thursday showed that the US labor market is steadily recovering despite the worrisome September job’s report – weekly unemployment claims came in at 255,000, below the consensus of 269,000.

Apart from this some other important data released through the week were-

• US CPI month-over-month in September met expectations of a 0.2 percent decline

• PPI month-over-month in September dipped 0.5 percent, disappointing market expectations of a 0.2 percent drawdown

• Empire State manufacturing index for October at -11.4 was worse than the expected -7.3

• The Philly Fed manufacturing index at -4.5 missed the -1.8 forecast

• Core retail sales month-over-month in September fell 0.3 percent, below the forecast of -0.1 percent. Retail sales over the same period rose 0.1 percent, just missing the 0.2 percent consensus

•  Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said its Consumer Price Index fell by 0.2% for the month of September, in line with consensus estimates. A month earlier, the reading fell by 0.1% in August. On a year over year basis, the headline reading is identical to its level 12 months ago

• Core PPI month-over-month last month stood at -0.3 percent, another figure to miss estimates, which were a 0.1 percent uptick

Though the Core CPI was moving in a positive direction from its previous levels of August still it remained under the Fed's preferred gauge of under 1.5%.

The set target for long term inflation by the Fed is likely 2% before it raises its benchmark Federal Funds Rate.

Gold prices eased in Asia on Friday on profit taking on recent gains on a soft. Outlook for U.S. interest rates. On Thursday morning, the U.S. Department of There were signals throughout the report of weakness in the energy sector, restraining inflationary pressures overall.

The spot gold price was last at $1,176/1,176.20 per ounce, down $5.90 on Thursday’s close. 

Jobs data has acquired greater significance after the US Federal Reserve made its approach to the normalization of monetary policy entirely data-dependent.

Gold drifted lower still on Friday morning in Europe after dollar continued to pare earlier losses thanks to better-than-expected US jobs data.

As dissent grows in the Federal Reserve over the appropriate measures for 2015, the dollar has deteriorated to the weakest mark since August 25.

Various Fed members are growing more vocal in their view that the US economy is not ready for a federal funds hike – in direct opposition of Chairwoman Janet Yellen.

Yellen, along with vice chair Stanley Fischer, have said recently that a normalization of US monetary is still a viable option for 2015.

However as per market analysts, the FOMC is not seen lifting rates until March at the earliest.

While the market is once again divided into bearish and bullish supporters, the yellow-metal has found support as the market’s pricing of the next US Federal Reserve rate hike is pushed out.

The primary purpose of this article by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

- Previous blog-

"Ambiguity For Gold: RSBL"
http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2015/10/ambiguity-for-gold.html

GOLD DIRECTIONLESS: RSBL

 By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL

Most of the global asset markets were quite unpredictable this week. Be it equities, precious metals, bond yields or oil- they moved up and down following last week’s FOMC meet.

Coming to gold, it neared its second weekly gain on Friday afternoon, touching $1145 per ounce but plunged back following new comments on US interest rates from Fed chair Janet Yellen.

Increased risk sentiment helped gold prices to end Friday’s session modestly lower with prices settling at $1,145.60 an ounce; however, the yellow metal has managed to end the week in positive territory, up 0.6% - its second consecutive weekly gain.

Spot gold was last at a high of $1,144.80/1,145 per ounce. Prior to a speech from Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen in which she said the Fed has not ruled out the start of policy normalization before 2016, gold had been trading at two-month highs.

The gold price surged to its highest since August 25 during Thursday afternoon sessions as the yellow metal took advantage of a slump in the US dollar.

On Friday afternoon, gold moved back from Thursday’s gains, after the release of positive US data and talk that the country’s central bank will increase interest rates by the end of the year.

The US data released were as follows-

• Final GDP was better than expected at 3.9 percent
• Services PMI at 55.6.
• Revised UoM consumer sentiment and inflation expectation at 87.2 and 2.8 percent were little changed

A slowing global economic activity and excessively low inflation had delayed the Fed’s decision to hike interest rates. Its decision had raised concerns about the economic stability of the US, China and rest of the world and resulted in lifting of the dollar.

Aggressive comments from Yellen have provided the dollar with renewed upside momentum, depressing bullion prices through reduced safe-haven demand. 

There are expectations in the market that the FOMC is likely to raise the federal fund rates in December as they witnessed a likely upwards revision to US-second quarter GDP growth

Gold declined on Friday morning after Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen expressed optimism that the US economy would warrant an increase in interest rates before the end of this year.

She stated that it will be appropriate to raise rates in 2015. Now there are around 13 weeks let in 2015 and two more FOMC meetings are lime up in October and December each, which means there are just two opportunities left to raise interest rates.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has spoken, and an interest rate hike remains on the table for 2015, but one trend watcher says the central bank is just talking ‘really tough.’

Moreover, Yellen noted that ‘idiosyncrasies’ like lower oil prices and weaker overseas economies have delayed the Fed from pulling the trigger. 

Yellen said FOMC officials “expect that the various headwinds to economic growth will continue to fade, thereby boosting the economy's underlying strength.”

Yellen’s bullish sentiment was buoyed through the third revision to second-quarter US GDP growth to 3.9 percent from 3.7 percent. The final GDP price index quarter-over-quarter was in line with forecasts at 2.1 percent.

Yellen and her colleagues at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have maintained interest rate at near-zero levels since December 2008.

Persistently low inflation, emerging global slowdown and an uneven recovery remain obstacles for the FOMC members to normalizing monetary policy.

Though the yellow metal is still showing encouraging signs, but in event of a rate hike, the impact on gold would be bad.

Currently old is searching for a direction as the FOMC has left the market wandering. The picture will get clearer by the end of the year or maybe early 2016.

Currently one need to follow the FOMC religiously as gold’s whereabouts depends on the Fed’s directions.

The primary purpose of this article by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

- Previous blog -

"Rate Hike Hangover Continues on Gold: RSBL"

http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2015/09/rate-hike-hangover-continues-on-gold.html

RATE HIKE HANGOVER CONTINUES ON GOLD: RSBL

 By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL

The much awaited suspense over the Fed’s September interest rate hike was finally put to an end. It did create much volatility in the market and bought in some good news for gold.

Gold prices finished the week on a three day rally as the Federal Reserve’s sudden concern over emerging market growth boosted safe-haven demand.

The volatility was like a storm for gold and it tried to be holding on to the gains.

Thursday was a crucial day for gold as all eyes were focused on the FOMC meet that was due to release its monetary policy. 

Fed Chairwoman, Yellen, added that there was an argument to be made for raising rates in September; however, because of the global weakness and fragile financial market, the committee decided to err on the side of caution and leave rates unchanged.

We saw the global economic growth led to volatility shocks in the global equities market. This once again raised concerns over the world economic development. Hence the FOMC dropped to normalize US monetary policy after announcing concerns on overseas growth.

The Fed decided to maintain near-zero interest rate levels, citing recent equity volatility exacerbated by a global growth slowdown.

The central bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy, coupled with dovish comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday, helped gold end a three day losing streak as it finished Friday in positive territory. 

The spot gold price was last at $1,136/1,136.40 per ounce, its highest in around two weeks and up $3.80 on Thursday’s close.

Though in her proceedings press conference, Fed chairwoman did not rule out an October hike but the market is keener about a hike in December. This would force the FOMC to raise rates sharply to combat said inflation and prevent the organization from increasing the federal funds rate at a gradual pace.

Since the Fed removed all calendar references in its forward guidance in April, the bank is now entirely data-dependent.

Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term.

Inflation remains a persistent issue – the FOMC said that declines in energy prices and non-energy imports are the underlying causes preventing inflation from hitting the Fed’s target of two percent.

As of now a weak US dollar would prove to be positive for gold in the near future and if the equities markets lower then gold could rally further.

But the current statement released by the Fed that it intends to raise rates by year-end has made the market players believe that this price rise on gold will be short lived as they expected the dollar to strengthen as early as October.

The Fed’s next opportunity to raise rates will fall in October or December.

Looking ahead, the Fed’s stance on interest rates and heightened concerns of the global economy hurting the U.S. economic recovery has created some strong positive sentiment in the gold market, at least in the short term. 

As we continue to see the after effects of the FOMC meet on gold, prices of the yellow metal are expected to rise in the short term.

As there is not much important data slated to release next week, gold prices are expected to range around 1150$ an ounce but will continue to struggle as soon the rate hike news creeps into the market.

Most analysts are centering on the global market for gold to rally. The fact that the central bank is concerned about the impact the global economy is having on equity markets, some analyst note that further weakness in U.S. stock markets could benefit gold. 

 

Some even expect the U.S. dollar to remain at elevated levels as markets continue to price in a rate hike later this year, which will limit gold’s potential. 

Although U.S. economic data will be limited next week some of reports that could create some volatility in the marketplace include manufacturing data, including durable goods numbers for August, home sales data for August and the final second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product report. 

A relatively light economic calendar next week means the gold market will continue to digest the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave rates unchanged. 

The primary purpose of this article by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

- Previous blog -

"Uncertainties For Gold:RSBL"

http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2015/09/uncertainties-for-gold-rsbl.html