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Tuesday 12 May 2020

Everyone wants to own gold

Gold does very well as a calamity hedge, and I think we would all agree that this is definitely a calamity right now.

In times of uncertainty, economic and otherwise, gold is considered a safe haven investment, a fact which is further being corroborated by the current movement of gold prices and demand for all forms of gold investments, be it bullion, paper gold, spots and futures says Prithviraj Kothari RSBL.
Gold performs well in any situation- inflation or deflation. We need not worry. And currently, we all know that a ton of money has been pumped into the market for recovery.
And when you look at the stock market over the last few weeks, the stock market’s gotten boastful giving bullion dealers in India some good news.
But, the yellow metal, the traditional haven of choice, has increasingly found its fate in the greenback as a competitor over the past two years when calamity struck, whether it was Covid-19 outbreaks, tumbles on Wall Street or breakdown in U.S.-China trade endeavours. The dollar and the yellow metal were considered to be inversely proportional to each other.
The same phenomenon was on a display again on Monday as both U.S. gold futures and the spot price of gold fell under the $1,700 support level, while the dollar index regained its balance on above the key 100-point mark critical to dollar bulls.

The US dollar strengthened on Monday as appetite for the US dollar as safe-haven currency increased amid concerns over economic reopening.

Gold prices extend the rebound making it look positive for the investors and the top gold dealer in India, as the risk-off sentiment seeped into Europe amid fears over the second wave of the coronavirus outbreak and escalating Australian-China trade tensions.
The dollar has been a major barrier for gold. Gold prices are very much into a consolidation phase, thanks to the US dollar.

Furthermore, The White House is suffering a mini-outbreak of Covid-19 with Vice President Mike Pence’s Press Secretary Katie Miller testing positive, while Anthony Fauci and Robert Reid, two other senior health officials on the coronavirus task force, are on self-quarantine, according to reports. Pence and President Donald Trump have tested negative so far.
On the global front, both China and South Korea reported new spikes in coronavirus cases, with Seoul recording 34 new cases, its biggest single-day jump in about a month. In Germany, the closely-watched reproduction rate Covid-19 had climbed to 1.1, meaning 10 people with the virus could infect on average 11 others.

The US dollar strengthened on Monday as appetite for the US dollar as safe-haven currency increased amid concerns over economic reopening.

Events in Korea over the weekend brought a reminder of the risks of second waves of coronavirus infections, with Seoul closing down all nightclubs after 34 new infections were tracked down to one club.

But there remain much fear in the market about how the post Covid-19 recovery will play out, none more so than assessing the challenges economies face removing restrictions amid the coronavirus pandemic.

With many countries in the West attempting to reopen their economies, attention has turned to whether new infection rates will remain low as mobility picks up.

A recent study by the World Gold Council (WGC) found that gold figures in the top five investments; people are investing more in the yellow. On average people invested 28 per cent of their income in gold in 2016, which has gone and up to 33 per cent in 2019. It also found that most people preferred to invest in gold due to "ease of buying" which has kept the top gold dealer in India positive even in these difficult times.

In the domestic market too there are renewed worries of India’s fiscal and further possible lockdown only going to deteriorate this. The ballooning fiscal deficit moved to staggering 5.5%+. This is the real dilemma for the Government of India- to arrange the deficit as high as 4.75 lac crore- which seems difficult as the GST and al otter taxes are depleting fast.

The concern surrounding an upward creep in real interest rates, as an extremely weak economy forces price expectations lower while the Fed stays steadfast to its commitment to keep Fed Funds above zero, also contributed in reducing length.
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The escalating tensions between U and China will give sudden pop-up rally to gold from$1700-$1715 initially and later maybe $1730 but a stop is crucial at $1688.

All this suggests that you may want to own gold for what’s happening now. It would certainly help if you had gold in your portfolio for the grim economic events that are yet to unfold. And you clearly want to own gold for those things we hope that never happens says RiddiSiddhi Bullions Limited.

Friday 8 May 2020

Second wave of Covid-19 creates panic

We are currently facing a plethora of seemingly enormously adverse economic data being released by governmental statistical entities, and this data is likely to get worse before it gets better.  Indicators like unemployment levels, PMI readings, retail sales figures, manufacturing output etc, are all continuing to get worse.

We're going into a recession. We don't know how deep it will be or how long it will be. Debt is increasing. Governments are having massive increases in debt to raise the funds to get through this crisis. So, there's an awful lot of uncertainty in the market going forward. Gold doesn't pay any interest, but with interest rates at zero or even negative in Europe and Japan, gold is now competitive with interest-bearing instruments says Prithviraj Kothari RSBL.

U.S private sector ADB job losses were worst in this sector, for the month of April .Though this came broadly on expected lines, there was a big panic since for over 8 weeks now.  US government and U.S. Fed, both are putting in massive stimulus to avert this nightmare situation.

Gold price recovered Monday from last week’s drop as investors keep embracing safe-haven assets during a tumultuous economic environment hit by the covid-19 pandemic giving top gold dealer in India some hope.
The logistics of transporting physical gold have also been impacted by the pandemic, with the precious metals industry scrambling to keep the market moving. Transportation costs have surged about 60% as a result of the worldwide lockdowns, increasing the premiums paid for metals.

As we see a gradual easing of all the restrictions and businesses start to reopen, that will certainly have an impact on precious metals prices says RiddiSiddhi Bullions Limited. WHO and CDS fear a significant danger of a second COVID-19 wave and if at all that happens, gold prices will rally giving bullion dealers in India assurance.

Gold is becoming attractive in this environment where uncertainty is very high, growth is expected to weaken, and at the same time you have negative real rates which make gold attractive to hold as a diversifier in investor portfolios
The surge in gold is set to continue with a test of $1800 the next big round number in sight