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Monday 25 September 2017

Stronger dollar pulls down gold prices

But the metal still recorded its second consecutive weekly decline after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday reiterated that it expects to deliver another rise in interest rates by the end of the year.

Prices for the yellow metal dropped about 1.7 percentlast week, posting their second consecutive weekly decline.

Gold futures witnessed nominal gains, with heightened tension pegged to North Korea credited with providing a modicum of support to the haven.


Late Thursday, North Korean officials threatened to test a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific Ocean, escalating tensions in the Korean Peninsula. North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un criticized President Donald Trump for remarks made during the U.S. leaders U.N. speech Tuesday, in which he threatened to “totally destroy” Pyongyang if provoked.

Gold prices would have crashed to $1,265.60 if North Korean risk didn’t resurface and would have taken prices back to levels last seen more than a month ago.

But the Fed, which indicated Wednesday that it still plans to raise rates once more by the end of the year, was the reason why gold prices fell.

The central bank also announced that a plan to unwind its more than $4 trillion balance sheet would commence in October. Both policy measures can have the effect of tightening monetary policy and raise rates. Higher rates in turn can make gold, which doesn’t bear a yield, less attractive compared with assets with rising yields.

Gold opened lower in early Asian tradin as weekend uncertainty passed without incident. Merkel’s win in the German federal elections and a quiet news weekend on the North Korean front, saw the US dollar opening stronger and gold’s weekend safe-haven premium eroded from Friday

The spot gold price fell during Asian morning trading hours on Monday September 25, as the dollar strengthened and a quiet weekend on the North Korean front saw a further deterioration in any risk-off sentiment.

Gold prices dropped on Monday, andhovered around one-month lows hit last week, weighed down by afirm U.S. dollar and as concerns over the Korean crisis easedover the weekend.

Merkel's win in the German federal elections and a quietnews weekend on the North Korean front, saw the U.S. dollaropening stronger and gold's weekend safe-haven premium erodedfrom Friday.

The euro slipped on Monday after German Chancellor AngelaMerkel won a fourth term in a weekend election, but facedleading a much less stable coalition in a fractured parliamentas support for the far-right party surged.                    

Last week, the Fed announced it would begin trimming down its $4.5 trillion in assets and signalled it will likely raise rates again this year. With the market increasingly expecting another US rates rise by year-end, this should continue to lend support to the dollar tis pushing down gold prices further.






Thursday 21 September 2017

FOMC Meet breaks down gold

It is rather remarkable to think that less than a month ago, gold shot up on the back of a missile firing in North Korea and the assorted baggage that came with that. The market was scared and gold was the major beneficiary. Now here we are, with the price of gold almost fifty dollars lower, but nothing has really changed. Trump is threatening total annihilation of North Korea, to which I am sure Kim Jong Un will have something to say or do. And now in addition to that, the US President is picking another fight, this time with Iran, with inflammatory comments at the UN yesterday. It does indeed seem that the markets have very, very short memories. But among all this, this week’s focus shifted to the much awaited FOMC meet, its concluding statement and what the Fed would say about balance sheet reduction.





On Nov 25, 2008 The Fed announced it would begin buying assets for its own account to save the world. In Oct 2014, The Fed ended its QE3 buying program but continued to reinvest the proceeds to maintain its $4.4 trillion balance sheet. Today, Janet Yellen announced the balance sheet will be allowed to normalize, with reinvestment slowed/stopped starting in October.

Let take a quick look at the key highlights over the Feds statements of the meet:

  • Hurricanes are unlikely to change economy’s course medium term
  • Economic activity has risen moderately and job market has strengthened
  • Rates kept unchanged as Fed plans balance sheet runoff in October
  • Fed signals another hike in 2017 and 3 more in 2018


As expected, the Fed announced it will begin reducing bond reinvestment's, starting by $10 billion per month and growing to $50 billion.

Gold prices settled higher Wednesday but slipped in electronic trading after the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged

The price of spot gold has cracked back below the $1300 on the run up in the dollar after the FOMC decision. The precious metal is trading at the lowest level since August 28th.

In electronic trading after the Fed statement, prices traded lower at $1,310.70. The central bank said it will taper its $4.5 trillion balance sheet by $10 billion per month, the first reduction in nine years. Meanwhile, the Fed's interest rate projections, known as the dot plot, suggested a rate hike in December and three more in 2018.

A spill over effect of this meeting was clearly seen on gold as it broke the important trading level of $1300.