GOLD HAS FOUND A SUPPORT!!!

                                 - Mr. Prithviraj Kothari (MD, RSBL:RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

I am sure every single reader who follows Bullion market will agree when I say; this week belonged to Ben Bernanke’s statements. Bullion has slipped more than 22% this year on the Fed's hints that its monthly bond-buying program may end altogether by mid-2014.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke eased some market nerves by telling the U.S. Congress this week that the central bank's plans to scale back asset purchases later this year were not set in stone and depended on the strength of the economy.

He further stated that the U.S. central bank still expects to start scaling back bond purchases later in the year, but left open the option of changing that plan if needed. These statements were enough to support bullion prices and gold gained strength, even when the data flowing out of US has been considerably positive for the growth of economy. In July, jobless claims sharply fell by 24k thus reaching 334k. The US Philly Fed Index rose again from 12.5 in June to 19.8 in July. 

The recovery of the US economy is bound to pull down demand for gold and silver as safe haven investment option, which will then affect its prices.

I have a different perspective for the Gold price. Because of the lower gold prices now prevailing, which make many operating gold mines and projects uneconomic, we are already seeing fallout among producers with cutbacks, shutdowns and postponements.  As a result global gold production is likely to decline until there is a major pickup in the metal price.  

The lower price also discourages scrap sales which have thus been diminishing too.  Meanwhile the huge demand for physical gold seems to be continuing a pace. Russia has been the biggest gold buyer in the official sector in the past decade. A shift by central banks from major sellers of bullion to net buyers has been a major support to the gold market in recent years.

Gold took a stab at the $1,300/oz level earlier in the week, although it encountered strong resistance on approach of this level and has since sunk back lower. Gold has been receiving strong support in recent weeks from physical buying (especially from Chinese buyers); however, this physical buying is waning, and becomes especially thin on approach of $1,300/oz.

Physical demand for gold from the top consumer India remains dull due to stiff measures taken by the RBI to curb imports with a view to tackle the widening current account deficit. End of peak marriage season and weak domestic currency is also restricting buyers to be active but enduring good monsoon may provide firm support to prices later. 

According to the Indian Meteorological Department, the present state of the monsoon was 16% above a 50-year average during the June 1- July 16 period. A good monsoon brings strong harvests and given the fact that 70% of India’s Gold demand is from rural areas, should keep imports on a firm note going into year end.

Market participants were now awaiting a G20 meeting in Moscow over the weekend, which will likely focus on recent financial market volatility. Attention will then turn towards a series of crucial U.S. economic data, which analysts said will give more clues about the timing of the Fed's stimulus tapering.

Many traders and investors in Europe and North America are gearing up for their summer holidays, which could made for generally quieter, summer doldrums-type trading conditions until after the U.S. Labour Day holiday in early September.

Gold support is at $1,274 and $1,265. Resistance is at $1,305 and $1,320. Silver support is at $19.20 and $19.05, resistance is at $19.70 and $20.20. Platinum support is at $1,405 and $1,390. Resistance is at $1,418 and $1,437

In the domestic market the trade range for gold for the coming is between Rs. 26,000 to Rs. 28000 per 10 gram and for silver between Rs. 39000 to Rs. 40000 per kg.

"The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL(RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.) is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world."

~ Previous Blog: 
"Hold on to your Gold" 
 http://www.riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2013/07/hold-on-to-your-gold.html

HOLD ON TO YOUR GOLD!

-  Mr. Prithviraj Kothari (MD, RSBL:RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

Gold in the spot market was up 4.8% for the week, thus stating its biggest weekly gain since October 2011. Gold rose by 2.62% to $1280.1 on Thursday and silver also increased by 4.13% to $19.95.

The markets were moved by the U.S Fed's speech on 10th July, Bernanke spoke after the markets closed on Wednesday. He said that the US economy desires a highly accommodative monetary policy for the likely future. He also suggested that the tapering of the QE3 programme does not means that monetary policy would be tightened or the interest rates would be raised.

The FOMC minutes reviewed that many Fed governors would like to see more signs of improvement in jobs before agreeing to tapering. Both risky assets and gold reacted positively to the dovish comments by the Fed. The most recent weekly jobless claims in the U.S. unexpectedly rose by 16,000 to 360,000. 

On Friday, among other precious metals, silver fell 1.1% to $19.87 an ounce. Platinum inched down 0.1% to $1,402.99 an ounce, while palladium gained 0.1% to $716.97 an ounce. Gold pared losses after government data showed that U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in June, increasing gold's inflation-hedge appeal. 

Gold supply remains tight with current market prices now below the highest cost of production. Miners are writing down asset values and cutting back on costs. As prices move lower, it will come to a point where supply and demand economics take over.

Gold's reaction was limited after Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades said he hoped there would never be a need for the island to sell its gold reserves, an assessment stipulated in an international bailout for Cyprus.

Meantime in India – the world's heaviest gold-buying nation – the government's new campaign against household gold demand was challenged today by the jewellery industry, as well as market analysts. A number of jewellery units and workers have been idled due to the severe shortage of gold in the wake of several restrictions on the yellow metal’s import.

Imports in April and May together were a little over 300 tonnes. This fell to 38 tonnes in June. Excess imports in May gave some initial relief but that cushion is long gone.

Starting off next week, we have Chinese Q2:13 GDP data out early Monday. This number is generally not as important for precious metals as it is for other commodities. However, given that it is well known that Asian physical buying (particularly from China) has provided a crucial crutch for gold amid Fed tapering concerns, we could see a more marked reaction from precious metals than is usually the case. There is considerable risk that this number will disappoint (Bloomberg consensus: 7.6% y/y), although this time the market might not react as violently as it did in April — the market might be buoyed to some extent by hopes of stimulus, after Chinese Premier Li stated earlier this week that economic growth and employment must stay above a certain floor.

I expect gold prices to finish 2013 at around USD1,300/oz and rise mildly in 2014 and 2015. In the long term, uncertainty will continue to plague global markets as the international financial system adapts to a changing world economy. Gold will continue to play an important portfolio role for investors

"The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL(RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.) is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world."
-Previous Blog-
"Dollar Drags Down Gold" : 
 http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2013/07/dollar-drags-down-gold.html