THE YELLOW METAL IS ALL GOING GREEN

-By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

In 2008, when the financial crisis rattled economies, investors inevitably resorted to the perceived safety of gold - and its price escalated from $800 to $1900 an ounce. This, in turn, accelerated the exploration for yet more gold. And gold became the most sought after metal. But in 2013, gold plunged 28 percent, the most since 1981, amid a U.S. equity rally to a record and speculation that the Federal Reserve will scale back monetary stimulus.

There were quite a many investors who abandoned gold and wrote it off. They declared that gold was ready for a bear market and that it has lost all its glitter. But the ones who are still loyal to gold hold a strong belief that gold will shoot up this year and perform well. I think gold is all set to prove this true.

This month, gold has jumped 5.2 percent. The losses in equities market has once again shifted focus from financial markets to bullions. This week gold saw a 5 per cent gain- thanks to equities. 

A global fight from emerging markets and declines in equities increased gold status as a safe haven asset and it rose to a two month high on Friday.

Fluctuations in the currency markets led by  plummeting Argentina peso and Turkish Lira prompted investors to buy gold.

This was not the sole reason behind the yellow metal prices going green.

- The options market expires next Tuesday, on 28th January. Buying sentiment behind this expiry has pushed gold prices higher.

- Also, the market has seen a big inflow for the so-called gold spider ETF. Recent inflows are also encouraging. Gold ETFs on Friday scored their biggest daily inflow since October 2012.

- The Chinese lunar new year is also playing its part for physical metal demand, as customers are rushing in to grab the metal at a cheaper price. The Lunar Year holiday will start next Friday (31st January) but gold dealers in China have made their purchases well in advance. Increasing demand for coins, bars and jewellery has pushed up gold prices.

- There are talks in the market that the government may relax certain import restrictions. Gold shot up and after murmurings that the punitive taxes on gold in India may be reduced. Congress party chief Sonia Gandhi has asked the government to review tough import restrictions on gold, which include a record 10% import duty.This will result in higher demand for gold and may push prices further.

- Also we see many investors shuffling their portfolios in January after what they have witnessed the year before. In Jan 2014 we saw that the equity market has not given satisfactory returns hence many investors are again allocating major chunk to gold and other precious metals.

- The world has a picture that banks have been selling off gold. But what came as a shock to the market that Germany failed to get its gold back. On January 16, 2013 Germany’s central bank, the Bundesbank, said it will ship back home all 374 tonnes it had stored with the Banque de France in Paris, as well as 300 tonnes held in Manhattan by the US Federal Reserve, by 2020. the Germans have managed to bring home a paltry 37 tonnes of gold.

And a mere 5 tonnes of that came from the US, the rest from Paris. The Fed holds 45% of the total 3,396 tonnes German gold. Now what conspiracy lies behind this pull back is certainly unclear.

Meanwhile, A quiet Monday, following Martin Luther King day in the US saw most interest in Platinum trading, which was driven to a high of 1473 USD per ounce by the AMCU calling also for strikes at Impala. - First day of the week. A strike at South African platinum mines paralyzed the world’s three biggest producers of the metal for a second day as talks to resolve the dispute over pay broke up until Jan. 27. Nearly 70,000 employees downed tools at Anglo American Platinum Ltd., Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. and Lonmin Plc mines, where 70% of global platinum is produced. Hence, Platinum is 6% higher this month. 

While the yellow metal may take a back seat to other asset classes this year, but strong physical demand will sustain elevated average price this year. 

But investors have to be “cautious and quick” in taking profits because if the FED announces further tapering of its bond-buying program at its meeting next week, the dollar could soar, which could be a bearish sign for gold.

Nonetheless, momentum is still pointing up for now.

The primary purpose of this blog (Prithviraj Kothari's view on Bullion Markets- MD,RSBL (Riddisiddhi Bullions Ltd.)) is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

- Previous blog -

"Up Down- Gold Price trend Unclear"

http://www.riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2014/01/up-down-up-gold-prices-trend-unclear.html

UP DOWN UP- GOLD PRICE TREND UNCLEAR

-By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

So far...so good...it has been a decent start for gold. In the first fortnight of 2014, gold scaled up by 3.7 per cent. As we all know that 2013 has been one of the worst performing years for gold and it was down almost 28 per cent. It even ended a 12 year bull run for gold. All this may sound very repetitive as I have mentioned this time and again in all my articles lately.

But this has cropped up again as at this point where some believe that gold is making a comeback it is very important to know that is actually where gold is headed. 

Throughout the week, there were not one but many factors that played a pivotal role for gold's price movement:

• Strengthening of US dollar
• Federal Budget Balance
• Beige book
• Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech.
• Core CPI m/m
• Building permits
• German Buba President Weidmann’s speech

The recent disappointment in non-farm payroll report may have lowered the chances of FOMC reducing its stimulus program in the near future. But that does not mean that we can expect Gold to begin a new rally? There are various reasons for it. One of the major concerns is the demand for leading precious metals’ ETF including iShares Gold Trust (IAU) and SPDR Gold (GLD) continued to diminish. During January, SPDR Gold’s holdings declined by 1%. 

But the upper trend did continue during the start of this week too. Gold rose to its highest level in a month on Tuesday at $1,255.00 an ounce due to a drop in equities and uncertainty over the U.S. growth outlook after a disappointing jobs report last week.  But later in the day, gold lowered. It fell nearly 1 per cent as a rally in U.S. equities that was sparked by encouraging December retail sales data dampened buying sentiment among bullion investors. 

On Wednesday too, gold fell as the dollar rallied over producer prices data released in US. It showed that the price has risen sharply in December, even though there were few signs of sustained price pressures.

Supporting investor appetite for riskier assets like equities, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book published late on Wednesday; the U.S. economy continued to grow at a moderate pace from late November to the end of 2013, with some regions of the country expecting a pick-up in growth.

Thursday followed suit, as a developing global economy bettered the market scenario for equities and gold lost its appeal as an alternative investment and made it vulnerable to further losses.

Gold rallied towards the $1,255 level but it failed to go through it because there is no investor interest, and there may be a push towards the $1,210/$1,200 area.

Gold now relies on macroeconomic events that are coming up for the month of Jan:

1) The FOMC meeting: 

The next meeting of the Fed's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is on Jan. 28-29, while the next major U.S. data figure is the U.S. weekly jobless claims report, scheduled for release

2) Physical Demand from China:

In China, the biggest physical market for gold, demand has picked up since the beginning of the month in the build-up to the Lunar New Year, when the metal is bought for good fortune and given as gift. 

China has become the third-largest holder of gold, according to a Bloomberg Industries report. Gold holdings were nearly 2,710 metric tons, compared with the last reported holdings of 1,054 tons in April 2009, according to the report. Italy’s holdings are 2,451.8 tons, and France owns 2,435.4 tons, according to the World Gold Council data. The US is the biggest holder with 8,133.5 tons. The PBOC reported in April 2009 that its official gold reserves stood at 1,054 tons – and it has not reported any increase in official gold reserves since that announcement nearly five years ago,

China will continue to add its official gold holdings in a bid to raise the status of its currency, the Yuan and strengthen it.

So now all eyes on the upcoming FOMC meeting and wait for the best to happen

The primary purpose of this blog (Prithviraj Kothari's view on Bullion Markets- MD,RSBL (Riddisiddhi Bullions Ltd.)) is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

- Previous blog -

"Gold rolling around payroll"

http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2014/01/gold-rolling-around-pay-roll.html

HAPPY NEW YEAR

WISHING EVERYONE A VERY HAPPY NEW YEAR. MAY 2014 GLITTER LIKE GOLD, SHINE LIKE SILVER AND PROSPER LIKE PLATINUM FOR YOU. 

GOOD LUCK AHEAD!!!!

IS IT THE CALMNESS BEFORE A GOLD THUNDERSTORM??

-By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

Gold has always been the most favourite metal in its class as it has given tremendous returns since the past 12 years. In fact it has history of 12 years of gains which is why it enjoys the status of a safe haven asset.

But this year gold has fallen almost 20 percent over issues that the Fed would start tapering its easy money police by cutting its $85 billion monthly bond purchases. This has fuelled gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation.

The Fed who first stated that they may begin tapering n September, later released a statement that it might cut its easy money policy if the economic data released is positive and meets certain levels of growth.

The metal, however, has rallied about 8 percent in less than two weeks as disappointing U.S. economic data and lingering budget uncertainties in Washington increased gold's safe-haven appeal.

The recent trend in gold and its volatile reaction to the most recent economic release show the market is still heavily data-dependent for price direction.

After the US shutdown and the temporary delay of the Debt ceiling, the market believes that the worse is yet to come and that US has still not started walking on the path of recovery. these actions will further delay the Feds bond tapering act.

And that will be beneficial for gold and silver.

Bullion was headed for a 1.7 percent gain on the week, having hit four-week highs on Thursday as it benefited from weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data earlier in the week. 

Gold broke the $1350 level for the first time in more than a month as it rose 1 per cent on Thursday. All these upward movements were justified with the expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue its monetary stimulus due to disappointing US jobless claims data,

Bullion prices rallied after the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell less than expected last week. The jobs data bolstered expectations the Fed will not start to rein its stimulus program until well into next year.

Gold inched up slightly on Friday as disappointing U.S. economic data reinforced expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep its stimulus intact well into 2014.

Spot gold was up $4.62, or 0.34 percent, at $1,351.16 an ounce during the day, hovering below its highest level since Sept. 20 of $1,351.61.

Bullion eked out gains even as the dollar recovered from a nearly nine-month low against a basket of currencies. Other reasons cited for this gain in gold prices was technical buying and a two month high in the open interest for US gold futures

Some players think that gold is poised to rise into an upcoming Fed meeting as economic data isn’t thought to be strong even to alter the Fed’s decision to delay tapering. While the Nonfarm payroll report released earlier this week was considered old news, the government shutdown is thought to have added to the slowing in the US. 

Seeing gold stand up in the face of adverse currency market action was also seen as a positive by some traders . 

An issue that might provide gold with some support early next week is the prospect of a platinum strike in South Africa next week.

The gain in spot prices has further deterred physical demand in most Asian countries. 

In India, premiums were at a record high of $120 an ounce as dealers struggled to meet demand amid tight supplies.

Diwali is just round the corner and demand for gold in India is expected to soar (though it will be just half of last years demand).

However, dealers are struggling to get supplies and thus paying hefty premiums to fill in the gap.

Indian sellers have struggled to source supplies for domestic use for almost three months, since the central bank introduced a rule that required 20 percent of all imports be re-exported. 

   

In fact premiums are elevated and are expected to rise further... and the expectation is that they (stocks) are likely to run out completely around November at a time when the demand will be the highest on account of Diwali

The primary purpose of this blog (Prithviraj Kothari's view on Bullion Markets- MD,RSBL (Riddisiddhi Bullions Ltd.)) is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

- Previous blog -

"Financial calamity avoided or the worse is yet to come??"

http://www.riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2013/10/financial-calamity-avoided-or-worse-is.html

ARE THEY REALLY PRECIOUS?

-By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

This week a lot has happened with precious metals and in the coming week too a lot is bound to happen with gold, silver and platinum

The bears are in the driving seat in Gold. Gold prices shed 5.6 percent for the week. Gold fell to a five-week low on Friday at $1,304.56, heading for its worst week in more than two months.

For the first time in a month silver traded below $22. It suffered a huge sell off on Thursday. Silver prices fell 5.32 per cent on Thursday, closing at $21.90.

Platinum was not sparred from the selling pressure, falling 2.31 percent to close at $1,438 and saw some slight recovery to the $1,440 levels now. 

There are various factors responsible for this Sell - off. Let's take a look at them one by one.

SYRIAN EFFECT:

Gold prices rallied above $1,430 an ounce to a three-and-a-half-month high in late August on safe-haven buying, as the United States and its allies looked set to launch military strikes on Syria.

But the metal’s appeal has been dented by diplomatic efforts to place Syria’s chemical weapons under international control, which may avert a US military strike. The risk mood improved with Syria welcoming a Russian plan to surrender their chemical weapons

Obama has threatened to act alone, if necessary, and his administration credits that threat with Russia's surprise proposal last week to have Syria turn over its chemical weapons arsenal to international control. Outside of the United Nations, however, administration officials insisted they would not take the military threat off the table.

As of now gold doesn't seem to be playing much to the tunes of the Middle East tensions as the UN has clearly not given a go ahead for any attack on Syria.

QE TAPERING EFFECT:

The FOMC meeting to be held on 17-18th September and its speculations over the tapering of the quantitative easing program will be one of the biggest events for the movement.

Since the inception of the Fed’s quantitative easing programme in 2008, gold price has more than doubled from about $837 an ounce in 2008 to reach a peak above $1,900 in 2011. 

Since the Ben Bernanke’s Speech on QE3, prices have saw humungous correction and fell to a low of $1,180 in June this year. 

With talks of possible withdrawal of their liquidity injection programme coming up at the FOMC meeting next week, it is no wonder we see such volatility in bullion prices.

DEMAND EFFECT:

Another factor that affected gold prices was the lacklustre physical gold demand, particularly out of India, one of the biggest importers of Gold, where the Government restrictions to import Gold have further dented the supply. The dramatic trend decline in the Indian Rupee against the US dollar has sharply increased the local price of gold with the gold price measured in Rupee up some 20% since late June. 

The Indian jewellery market, which is a major component of global jewellery demand, has tended to be price sensitive. Thus the high local gold price is likely to dampen Indian jewellery demand and pull down gold prices unless the rupee depreciates further

Although physical demand has picked up in Asian Markets over the past two days, it is not nearly as strong as what we have witnessed in at the start of August. The strong physical demand during August had pushed plenty of shorts out of the market (this short covering assisted in pushing gold above $1,400). Should physical demand improve now, there may not be the same level of short covering to help push gold higher again.

MINING EFFECT:

Furthermore, the trend weakening of the South African Rand and the Australian dollar have lowered gold mining cuts in the two countries with the highest production costs which makes production costs less likely. It is also worth noting that the gold labour strikes in South Africa are now over which will may pull gold prices down

Having discussed these factors, I would expect Gold to trade sideways until FOMC meeting with its stimulus plan can lead to a direction.

The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.”

- Previous blog -

"Gold was pulled between two major forces- Syrain attack and the QE tapering"

http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2013/09/gold-was-pulled-between-two-major.html

WILL GOLD CROSS THE $1400 MARK

-By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

Is something wrong with market? Yes that's exactly what traders and investors were discussing. Gold has just touched $1400 which was once seen an untrue level after the fall. Will it be able to cross it and reach new highs is what the below given factors can forecast.

The main highlight for this week was the depreciating rupee. Initially the markets expected rupee to return from the level of 62. Then they claimed 64. But the rupee made new low of 65 against the dollar. Now it is expected to depreciate further to 70. However, by Friday evening rupee returned to the levels of 63.90

The economy is facing a slump. Inflation is at a high, growth has hampered and equities have shattered.

Although the government has been trying its level best to intervene at all critical levels and control the rupee, nothing seems to be helping.

This drop in the rupee pushed gold and silver upwards.

Strong US Dollar and rise in treasury yields were seen pressuring the commodity movement to certain extent. In the United States, ten-year treasury yields climbed to 2.92%, the highest since July 2011 after FOMC minutes were failed to give any further details on tapering monetary stimulus. Investors hope that the Central Bank may start tapering its monetary stimulus later this year.

Gold prices in the global market edged up on Friday after weekly US unemployment claims recorded an upward movement. However, concerns over the withdrawal of US monetary stimulus were seen pressuring the yellow metal prices to certain extent.

Gold jumped to a 11-week high, topping $1,400 an ounce in spot trading, as sales of new U.S. homes fell more than forecast, boosting speculation that the Federal Reserve will maintain economic stimulus. Sales of newly built homes in July plunged more than 13 percent, the most in more than three years, government data showed today. The 394,000 annualised pace compared with a drop to 487,000 forecast by analysts in a Bloomberg survey. Fed policy makers said they are “broadly comfortable” in scaling back debt purchase if the economy strengthens.

By Friday evening gold was seen trading at 1397$ up by 21$ and silver was up by 95 cents, trading at 24.07$

In the physical markets, renewed labour unrest in South Africa sent platinum and palladium higher on Thursday, and this too, provided an element of support to both gold and silver.

By Friday evening, in the domestic markets too we saw gold and silver rocketing. Gold climbed by INR 750 trading approximately at INR 31,900 per 10 gram and silver was up INR 2200 reaching a high of INR 53,400 per kg.

The fact that gold managed to reverse its losses and close modestly higher on the day was quite impressive and likely had something to do with the fact that better-than-expected Chinese data which suggests that the economy is stabilizing, potentially a positive in terms of future Chinese gold demand

Another report that caught attention was the World old Council's gold consumer demand report. The impressive thing to note was that Gold consumer demand rose by more than half in the second quarter of this year thanks to strong demand in China and India, the World Gold Council (WGC) said.

In India, the Gold Trade holds steady in spite of the government imposing import tax hikes on gold in an attempt to reduce the country’s current account deficit. In fact, according to the WGC, gold jewellery, bar and coin demand in India alone was 70 percent stronger in the second quarter of 2013 compared to the same quarter last year.

Consumer demand in China continued to show strong growth, totalling 276t in the second quarter, a rise of 87% compared to the same quarter last year, as investors used the lower gold price to buy in advance of expected future price rises. Jewellery demand in the quarter was 153t, up 54% on the same quarter last year, while bar and coin investment was 123t, up 157% on Q2 2012.

Recent falls in the gold price have boosted demand significantly – it rose 53 percent in the April-June period from the same three months of last year, the WGC said in a report on Thursday.

Looking at the good monsoons of India and the festive season closing by, the domestic prices for precious metals need to be watched closely. Whether supply will be able to meet the demand will be the question that every Indian attached to precious metals will be having in their mind. 

“The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.”

- Previous blog -

"Precious Metals on the Run"

http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2013/08/precious-metals-on-run.html

PRECIOUS METALS ON THE RUN

- by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

Gold, Silver and Platinum all of them have found a new life after they broke their technical resistances, strongly.

 Gold rose nearly 1 percent to a two-month high on Friday, and bullion posted its biggest weekly gain of almost 5% in many weeks.

Silver rose 1.5 per cent for an eighth consecutive daily gain. The grey metal has sharply outperformed gold and was up 14 per cent this week for its biggest weekly rise in almost five years. The Gold/Silver ratio has corrected 50% of its move since end November last year and given that the 200 day moving average should provide some support too at 58.08, we might cool down in Silver versus Gold and digest the strong recent out performance.

Platinum is trading above $1,500—hitching its star to gold’s wagon.

Gold's and Silver’s rally came as U.S. stock indexes were lower on Friday and on track for their biggest weekly declines in months. The rally in gold towards $1,372 is perhaps even more impressive because the price rise came despite the 10-year US government bond yield breaking above 2.75% yesterday. Rising bond yields have been negatively correlated with the gold price over the past few months – but not yesterday. Adding more support is that we are not seeing any major slowdown in physical gold demand yet despite the rally in the gold price. Rallies like we experienced yesterday would typically see physical demand fall away until the price volatility settles once again. The SGE premium has not fallen below $22/oz the past few days.

Even the greenback pared its early gains against its peers on Friday as release of weaker-than-expected U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep its stimulus measures by the end of this year. 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published its recent report of the U.S CPI for July 2013. Based on the latest update, the consumer price index rose again for the third consecutive month; in annual terms the US CPI increased by 2%. Despite the moderate rise in the CPI, it is still very low and remains lower than the inflation target of the Federal Reserve. The low inflation could suggest the U.S economy isn’t heating up, which could raise the odds of the Fed leaving its policy unchanged and keeping the current asset purchase program unchanged. This news may have contributed to the rally of gold and silver prices.

Last but not least, the largest increase in SPDR GLD holdings turned out to be by Goldman Sachs Group, who added 3.7 Mio.

In the domestic market, a record low in the rupee lifted Indian gold futures above the closely watched 30,000-rupee mark. Dealers said the high local price of gold in the world's largest gold buyer is expected to weigh down on demand. This week gold was more of a game of demand and rupee depreciation. 

This week, Government of India increased the import duty on Gold by 2%, Silver by 4% and Platinum by 2% to new 10%. The festive season had given tremendous rise to the demand for gold. The yellow metal witnessed a sharp climb as stockists weighed supply constraints in view of the ensuing festival and marriage seasons in the midst of incessant duty hikes from the government and RBI measures. Besides other extreme steps, like abolishing the purchase of property abroad for Indians, or reducing heavily the amount Indian companies can invest abroad, they also abolished the import of gold coins and medallions. Imports of coins and medallions; however should not have a big impact on thets total import number, as most of the imports are in form of bars and not coins. These new regulations that come up now almost on a daily basis without being too clear have brought imports to a standstill and we still wait for more details on how exactly to conduct imports in the coming days ahead.

Silver also reflected the shiny metal’s surge and zoomed to hit a four-month high owing to heavy speculation.

A sharp fall in Sensex and rupee against dollar and strong global cues also contributed to the upsurge in gold price, which posted the biggest single-day gain after August 19, 2011. Interestingly, the metal had shot up by INR 1,310 on August 19, 2011 as well.

But for Indians who want to invest in gold, you may have a host of restrictions. The big ones are a trade deficit, a current account deficit and a collapsing currency. The rupee is down 28% over the last two years. That's the biggest fall since 1991.

For the weeks to come there is lot of uncertainty prevailing over precious metal prices.

The trade range for golf for the coming week is 1340$- 1420$ and in the domestic market it is expected to trade between Rs.29,000- Rs. 32,000 per 10 gram.

“The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

- Previous blog -

"Dollar makes gold look attractive"

http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2013/08/dollar-makes-gold-look-attractive.html

WAVES OF DISAPPOINTMENT FOR THE MARKET

-By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

As we discussed last week that this week had a bundle of surprises for gold of which the US employment data was the biggest surprise. There were mixed sentiments in the market post the data release. Investors believed that the jobless claims would be much high compared to June.

Moreover Fed Chairman Bernanke's statement over the stimulus plan created even further confusion.

There was mystification in the market as the jobless claims were 326,000, below the forecast of 346,000 while the private sector ADP change in non- farm payroll came in at 200,000 well above the forecast 179,000.

A weaker-than-expected U.S. July jobs report and a fall in the dollar helped gold rebound from a drop of more than $25 an ounce during Friday’s session, but prices still marked the first weekly loss in four week.

Gold initially fell to a two week low at $1280 an ounce as encouraging US gross domestic product and factory activity data earlier in the week reduced the metal's appeal as an investment hedge.

It jumped about  2 percent from its session low after government data showed U.S. employers slowed their pace of hiring in July but the jobless rate fell anyway, easing fears that the U.S. central bank might imminently reduce its $85 billion monthly bond buy back stimulus.

Gold’s hard times have come from the view that easy money, which has weighed on the dollar and lifted gold in recent years, is going bye-bye sooner or later.

US jobs data is vital to the gold market after the US Federal Open Market Committee indicated that quantitative easing may continue until the unemployment rate falls to 6.5 percent. The Fed remains committed to purchasing $85 billion in new debt per month in an open-ended programme (QE3). Accommodative measures from the US central bank are supportive of commodity prices because extra liquidity tends to debase the dollar and create future inflationary risk.

I am optimistic over the long-term time frame. Targeting inflation, the Federal Reserve's inability to taper, and underlying problems in Europe will make sure precious metals will outperform down the stretch. The nonfarm payrolls data usually brings volatility to gold, but the metals just haven't had enough upside momentum to constitute a breakout, so till that time it will be wait and watch.

In other gold market news, China’s thirst for physical metal remains strong. Imports from Hong Kong at 105 tonnes in June were down slightly from 114 tonnes in May but this was still the fourth-biggest month on record, according to Macquarie, citing Hong Kong export data. Apparent demand from China at 835 tonnes is up more than 50 percent on last year, the broker estimates.

However demand from India has not picked up pace as there are no clarification over the RBI policies for gold and the government is trying to curb g0ld imports to rectify the CAD.

As far as the international markets are concerned, it’s going to be a light week for U.S. economic news, but globally, next week will include a few more central bank meetings including the Reserve Bank of Australia, which is expected to cut rates. The Bank of Japan is also meeting, but is not expected to make changes to monetary policy.  Chinese data slated for release include industrial production, retail sales, export data and inflation report.

Gold support is at $1,280 and $1,260. Resistance is at $1,320 and $1,340. Silver support is at $19.20 and $19.05, resistance is at $20.20 and $20.40.

In the domestic market gold is expected to move in the range of Rs.26,000 to Rs. 29,500 in the coming week.

“The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.”

- Previous blog -

"Bundle of surprises for gold"

http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2013/07/bundle-of-surprises-for-gold.html

INDIA'S FIRST EVER GOLD PLATED BIKE LAUNCHED BY RSBL DIA JEWELS!

Presenting to you India's first ever gold plated bike.

This bike is India's first fully Gold Plated bike and decorated aesthetically with diamonds. The gorgeous Huma Qureshi herself was present at the inaugration and unleashed the bike.

This bike is available for display at the Times Glamour Exhibition at Hotel Shangri- La, Lower Parel,  from 26th- 28th July from 10am - 7pm ( Stall no 18.)


“The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.”

- Previous blog -
"Bundle of surprises for gold"
http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2013/07/bundle-of-surprises-for-gold.html

BUNDLE OF SURPRISES FOR GOLD!

-By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

Currently the entire market is in a confused state of mind as far as gold is concerned.
The market has split in two parts. Some say gold will rise while the others take an opposite stand.

This week we came across some interesting figures in gold:

1. On Friday, gold was trading at $1340 - almost $160 higher than the three year low of 1179$ that it hit on June 28
2. Gold has risen consecutively for the third week until Friday and also its first three weeks rise since March.
3. On the other hand, in terms of value gold has also lost a fifth of its value as investors lost faith in gold.

Many buyers also indulged in profit-taking by cashing in from gold's Friday session high of 1340$.

Initially, Fed chairman Bernanke has stated that the Fed may scale back its $85 billion monthly bond purchases. But now there is no clarity on the timeline for this activity as he further states that scaling back of the stimulus program depends on the recovery of the US economy.

The market now digests news that Russia, Ukraine and Azerbaijan were among eight countries that increased their gold holdings in June, data from the International Monetary Fund showed, while Turkey, Germany and seven other countries shed some of their bullion.

As far as the Asian markets are considered, China's gold demand could hit a record 1,000 tonnes this year, the World Gold Council said on Thursday, which means it would overtake India as the world's biggest bullion consumer.

But investors still have a mixed basket of feelings for gold. The appetite to carry large positions overnight may decline ahead of the next crucial week of data.

The U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision on Wednesday, as will the European Central Bank and Bank of England on Thursday — and on Friday, the U.S. Labour Department will release its widely watched monthly jobs report.

Now what we have to wait and see is that whether these vital reports will pull down gold or push it up.

Demand from India has taken a setback but is now expected to rise. Monsoons play a key role for demand coming in from rural areas. Also August marks the onset of the festive and marriage season. But since the government has taken measures to curb imports, in spite of physical demand there isn’t much gold available in the market to meet the demand. 

Gold support is at $1,321 and $1,307. Resistance is at $1,340 and $1,355. Silver support is at $20.78 and $19.40, resistance is at $20.70 and $20.90.


“The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.”

- Previous blog -
  "Gold Has Found A Support"
 http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2013/07/gold-has-found-support.html

GOLD HAS FOUND A SUPPORT!!!

                                 - Mr. Prithviraj Kothari (MD, RSBL:RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

I am sure every single reader who follows Bullion market will agree when I say; this week belonged to Ben Bernanke’s statements. Bullion has slipped more than 22% this year on the Fed's hints that its monthly bond-buying program may end altogether by mid-2014.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke eased some market nerves by telling the U.S. Congress this week that the central bank's plans to scale back asset purchases later this year were not set in stone and depended on the strength of the economy.

He further stated that the U.S. central bank still expects to start scaling back bond purchases later in the year, but left open the option of changing that plan if needed. These statements were enough to support bullion prices and gold gained strength, even when the data flowing out of US has been considerably positive for the growth of economy. In July, jobless claims sharply fell by 24k thus reaching 334k. The US Philly Fed Index rose again from 12.5 in June to 19.8 in July. 

The recovery of the US economy is bound to pull down demand for gold and silver as safe haven investment option, which will then affect its prices.

I have a different perspective for the Gold price. Because of the lower gold prices now prevailing, which make many operating gold mines and projects uneconomic, we are already seeing fallout among producers with cutbacks, shutdowns and postponements.  As a result global gold production is likely to decline until there is a major pickup in the metal price.  

The lower price also discourages scrap sales which have thus been diminishing too.  Meanwhile the huge demand for physical gold seems to be continuing a pace. Russia has been the biggest gold buyer in the official sector in the past decade. A shift by central banks from major sellers of bullion to net buyers has been a major support to the gold market in recent years.

Gold took a stab at the $1,300/oz level earlier in the week, although it encountered strong resistance on approach of this level and has since sunk back lower. Gold has been receiving strong support in recent weeks from physical buying (especially from Chinese buyers); however, this physical buying is waning, and becomes especially thin on approach of $1,300/oz.

Physical demand for gold from the top consumer India remains dull due to stiff measures taken by the RBI to curb imports with a view to tackle the widening current account deficit. End of peak marriage season and weak domestic currency is also restricting buyers to be active but enduring good monsoon may provide firm support to prices later. 

According to the Indian Meteorological Department, the present state of the monsoon was 16% above a 50-year average during the June 1- July 16 period. A good monsoon brings strong harvests and given the fact that 70% of India’s Gold demand is from rural areas, should keep imports on a firm note going into year end.

Market participants were now awaiting a G20 meeting in Moscow over the weekend, which will likely focus on recent financial market volatility. Attention will then turn towards a series of crucial U.S. economic data, which analysts said will give more clues about the timing of the Fed's stimulus tapering.

Many traders and investors in Europe and North America are gearing up for their summer holidays, which could made for generally quieter, summer doldrums-type trading conditions until after the U.S. Labour Day holiday in early September.

Gold support is at $1,274 and $1,265. Resistance is at $1,305 and $1,320. Silver support is at $19.20 and $19.05, resistance is at $19.70 and $20.20. Platinum support is at $1,405 and $1,390. Resistance is at $1,418 and $1,437

In the domestic market the trade range for gold for the coming is between Rs. 26,000 to Rs. 28000 per 10 gram and for silver between Rs. 39000 to Rs. 40000 per kg.

"The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL(RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.) is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world."

~ Previous Blog: 
"Hold on to your Gold" 
 http://www.riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2013/07/hold-on-to-your-gold.html

HOLD ON TO YOUR GOLD!

-  Mr. Prithviraj Kothari (MD, RSBL:RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

Gold in the spot market was up 4.8% for the week, thus stating its biggest weekly gain since October 2011. Gold rose by 2.62% to $1280.1 on Thursday and silver also increased by 4.13% to $19.95.

The markets were moved by the U.S Fed's speech on 10th July, Bernanke spoke after the markets closed on Wednesday. He said that the US economy desires a highly accommodative monetary policy for the likely future. He also suggested that the tapering of the QE3 programme does not means that monetary policy would be tightened or the interest rates would be raised.

The FOMC minutes reviewed that many Fed governors would like to see more signs of improvement in jobs before agreeing to tapering. Both risky assets and gold reacted positively to the dovish comments by the Fed. The most recent weekly jobless claims in the U.S. unexpectedly rose by 16,000 to 360,000. 

On Friday, among other precious metals, silver fell 1.1% to $19.87 an ounce. Platinum inched down 0.1% to $1,402.99 an ounce, while palladium gained 0.1% to $716.97 an ounce. Gold pared losses after government data showed that U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in June, increasing gold's inflation-hedge appeal. 

Gold supply remains tight with current market prices now below the highest cost of production. Miners are writing down asset values and cutting back on costs. As prices move lower, it will come to a point where supply and demand economics take over.

Gold's reaction was limited after Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades said he hoped there would never be a need for the island to sell its gold reserves, an assessment stipulated in an international bailout for Cyprus.

Meantime in India – the world's heaviest gold-buying nation – the government's new campaign against household gold demand was challenged today by the jewellery industry, as well as market analysts. A number of jewellery units and workers have been idled due to the severe shortage of gold in the wake of several restrictions on the yellow metal’s import.

Imports in April and May together were a little over 300 tonnes. This fell to 38 tonnes in June. Excess imports in May gave some initial relief but that cushion is long gone.

Starting off next week, we have Chinese Q2:13 GDP data out early Monday. This number is generally not as important for precious metals as it is for other commodities. However, given that it is well known that Asian physical buying (particularly from China) has provided a crucial crutch for gold amid Fed tapering concerns, we could see a more marked reaction from precious metals than is usually the case. There is considerable risk that this number will disappoint (Bloomberg consensus: 7.6% y/y), although this time the market might not react as violently as it did in April — the market might be buoyed to some extent by hopes of stimulus, after Chinese Premier Li stated earlier this week that economic growth and employment must stay above a certain floor.

I expect gold prices to finish 2013 at around USD1,300/oz and rise mildly in 2014 and 2015. In the long term, uncertainty will continue to plague global markets as the international financial system adapts to a changing world economy. Gold will continue to play an important portfolio role for investors

"The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL(RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.) is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world."
-Previous Blog-
"Dollar Drags Down Gold" : 
 http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2013/07/dollar-drags-down-gold.html

DOLLAR DRAGS DOWN GOLD

      - Mr. Prithviraj Kothari (MD, RSBL:RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)

Markets were less volatile towards the end of the week due to the closure of international markets on 4th July, as US celebrated it’s Independence day.

Gold dropped by around 0.6 per cent on Thursday but still remained strong over the week until Friday. The trend changed when, on Friday, the labour Department reported a stronger than expected  forecast . It stated 195000 rise in June non-farm payrolls, along with upward revisions for May and April.

The unemployment rate stayed at 7.6% however, rather than slipping as forecast. But average hourly earnings rose 2.2% annually against the 2.0% analysts predicted. 

Gold prices bounced and then dropped $20 per ounce to hit $1220 per ounce in London trade Friday, nearing their worst weekly finish since August 2010 after the release of June's US non-farm payrolls data.

With this improvement in the labour report, it gave more confirmation to traders that the Fed might scale back its quantitative easing program.

In fact it is believed that gold would have shown more movement and volatility had the markets remained operational on Thursday.

Many market players are on a four- day weekend after the International Holiday on fourth July. The markets are expected to show some pressure on gold on Monday as everyone will return from the long weekend holiday. I expect that rallies towards $1,300 and possibly $1,340 should continue to attract selling, till there are no stronger reasons for trend reversal.

Next week too, traders are surrounded by thoughts about when the Federal Reserve may curtail QE3. The other factors that will also matter are the ongoing conflict in Egypt and the exchange trade flow figures.

Now that the US economy has shown signs of growth and recovery and the US interest rates are rising, the dollar is now being reconsidered as a mode of investment. Gold works as a hedge against inflation. Now that inflation is declining, gold is gradually being replaced with other forms of investment.

In India too, the slag due the monsoon season and simultaneously curbs on imports of gold bullion has affected demand for gold and hence the promotion of diamond jewellery has been initiated much more forcefully.

Gold support is at $1,210 and $1,170. Resistance is at $1,262 and $1,273.

Silver support is at $18.70 and $18.40, resistance is at $19.50 and $19.90.

In the domestic market gold is expected to move in the range of Rs.25,000- Rs. 27,500 in the coming week.

"The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL(RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.) is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world."

- Previous Blog: "Good News Turns To Be Bad For Gold" : http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2013/06/good-news-turns-to-be-bad-for-gold.html