The Most Awaited Fed Meet Of The Year Keeps Markets Alert

Gold had rebounded somewhat last week although it remained below its psychologically important level of $1,200 per oz, suggesting that sentiment has not materially improved.

Gold came off its earlier lows but remained weak during Friday morning trading on December 2 – the near-certainty of a US interest-rate rise this month and an exodus of ETF investors put downward pressure on the market.

The spot gold price was seen trading at $1,176.45/1,176.65 per oz, up $3.35 on Thursday’s close. The metal fell on Thursday to its cheapest since February this year at $1,160.80 per oz.

Market was mainly focused on the US jobs reports, numbers of which would be an important deciding factor for the rate hike. The report was expected to show that 177,000 new non-farming jobs were added in November and unemployment rate forecasted at 4.9%.
Once the number Swere out gold came under pressure. Let’s have a look at the important data released-

• On Thursday, US final manufacturing PMI in November bested economic consensus at 54.1 – 53.9 was called for. 

• ISM manufacturing prices and PMI for November both topped projections at 54.5 and 53.2, respectively.

• October construction spending, however, came in at 0.5% month-on-month, a touch below the 0.6% prediction, while weekly unemployment claims were at 268,000 last week, which was above consensus of 252,000.

• On Friday non-farm payroll numbers showed that the USA added 178,000 jobs in November, against earlier expectations of around 165,000 and from October’s figure of just 161,000. In addition, unemployment dropped to 4.6% and wages climbed by 2.5%.

The recent spate of positive data is expected to produce higher rates when the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on December 13-14 – market participants see a 95% chance of a rate hike during the meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The Asian physical market has picked up a little thanks to favorable seasonality and a fall in domestic prices. This should limit the downward pressure on international gold prices

This week, gold looks a little stronger because macro drivers have become slightly more favorable for precious metals from a weaker dollar and lower US real rates.
The gold price glided lower during Monday December 5 trading as its earlier push higher failed to hold and it slipped into negative territory.

The yellow metal had found support from its safe haven status after Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi was defeated in Sunday’s referendum.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on December 14 – many participants expect an interest-rate rise to be announced, particularly after a run of positive data from the USA.

As of now, gold remains vulnerable ahead of the Fed meeting on December 13-14. Any stronger-than-expected US data is likely to raise the probability that the Fed lifts rates soon, pushing the dollar and US real rates higher, and in turn exerting downward pressure on the gold price.

Roller Coaster Gold ride edges lower as US dollar regains strength

Gold has been witnessing downward pressure since the past two weeks. But in the last week this pressure became so austere that we saw gold dipping to its nine month low below the important$1200 level. At $1180 gold hit its lowest level since early February. Furthermore, Good US economic data, which caused the US dollar to appreciate, had fuelled the next wave of selling on last Thursday noon.

The US dollar index climbed to its highest level since March 2003. Furthermore, US stock 

Markets continued to rise, which suggests on-going high levels of risk appetite among market 

Participants, while yields on ten-year US Treasuries climbed above the 2.4% mark again for 

the first time since July 2015.

The US dollar index has continued to strengthen amid positive US economic data while putting pressure on the gold price. The index had reached as high as 102.05 on Thursday, the highest since March 2003.

In addition, gold ETF’s witnessed massive outflow, thus reducing their holding by 13.7 tonne putting them at a five-month low of only a little over 1,900 tons. This was already the tenth consecutive daily outflow.

During this period, ETFs have had their holdings cut by a total of 101 tons. 

Although gold in euro terms is faring somewhat better thanks to the firm US dollar, at €1,122 per troy ounce it nonetheless fell to its lowest level since early October. 

The spot gold price eased during Asian trading hours on Friday November 25 as a strong US dollar continued to weigh on the yellow metal.

The US was closed for Thanksgiving holiday on Friday which resulted in quieter trading leading into the weekend.

Gold recovered from an earlier nine-month low and moved into positive territory on the morning of Friday November 25 in London, reflecting a pause in the dollar’s rally.

This sentiment continued for this week, giving gold a positive opening on Monday.

Gold was in positive territory on the morning of Monday November 28 in London, with a slightly weaker dollar generally underpinning precious metals prices.

The dollar index was recently at 101.05, having been as high as 102.05 in the previous week, it’s highest since March 2003.

The spot gold price was recently quoted at $1,192.00/1,192.30 per oz, up $8.20 on the previous close. Trade has ranged from $1,187.05 to $1,197.70 so far.

The spot gold price edged lower during Asian trading hours on Tuesday November 29 as the US dollar regained strength.

Growing sense of ‘opportunity cost’ among investors could be behind a surprise fall in the value of gold, after the precious metal failed to live up to its status as an inflation hedge and safe asset.

Softer spot prices may encourage physical demand while the holiday seasons in both Asia and Europe approach.

Before the UD election, gold was expected to trade unpredictably but now that prices have more or lessstabilised, market for gold is expected to be bullish. Moreover, Mr. President has been talking tough on trade which further raises uncertainty and create nervousness in the market thus keeping the bullish trend alive for the yellow metal.

Gold should provide a good hedge against fallout from what political policy changes lay ahead, as well as from any correction in super-charged markets.

The commodity, traditionally regarded as a safe haven for skittish investors, was among those assets viewed as a potential winner in a year marked by significant market shocks and rising inflation expectations – which many now predict during a stimulus-happy Donald Trump presidency.

This sentiment, however, is yet to be borne out by the price of the precious metal. While other hedges such as inflation-linked bonds have performed relatively well, gold has been trending downwards, both in the months leading up to the US election and its aftermath.