RSBL: A PUZZLED MARKET FOR GOLD

 By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL

It was a rather confused market for gold this week. The negatives pushed gold high while the stability kept it low. 

Though it was a neutral week for gold, it managed to stabilize over $1200 an ounce. The recent gains on gold prices have been supported by-

• The sluggish reports from the US economy
• The dreary March payrolls report from the Labor Department
• The slowly advancing US housing reports
• Rise in SPDR Gold Shares
• The uncertainties about Greece’s finances
• Other geopolitical tensions

The sluggish economic reports have raised the expectations that the US central bank would not be hiking the interest rates before September. 

The weak economic data this week did not have much impact on gold prices. Neither the US housing reports nor the declining dollar – gold prices did not bank on any of these factors. 

The gold price remained in positive territory in Friday afternoon trading despite the dollar managing to claw back.  Spot gold was seen trading at $1,204.70/1,205.50 per ounce was up $7 on the previous session’s close. Reasons supporting this are:

Greece Crisis: Investors shifted focus to gold to seek safe haven after world stock markets tracked lower over worries of a potential Greek debt repayment default. 


Meanwhile, Consumer prices in the euro zone rose for the second straight month in March, not enough to pull annual inflation out of negative territory but another positive sign as the currency bloc looks to escape prolonged deflation.

Sluggish reports from US: US Industrial production disappointed in March to print -0.6% (expected: -0.3%) to suffer its largest fall in well over two years. US retail sales too printed a lower figure of 0.9% vs 1.1% expected

SPDR Gold trust- Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold backed exchange traded fund, remained unchanged at 736.08 tons, from its previous close of 734.29 tons

Demand for Gold: Physical buying in the world's top two gold consuming countries is expected to rise. A spate of manufacturing data from all the world’s major economies next week as well as the key Hindu festival of Akshaya Tritiya in India on Tuesday, which is widely regarded to be the most auspicious day in the country’s calendar to buy gold, could prove key to near-term direction. India’s March gold imports rose 94 percent year-on-year to $4.98 billion, according to the  trade ministry.

In the week to come factors supporting a bullish sentiment for Gold are: 

Weak US Dollar: A weak U.S. dollar could end up taking some momentum away from equity markets and that could help gold prices. Further weakness in the dollar could push up gold prices as bullion is seen as a safe-haven asset.

Eurozone: Negative bond yields in Europe continue to make the yellow metal an attractive safe-haven investment. Meeting of Eurozone ministers on the 24th April where Greece debt deal issue will take the center stage.

Economic Data from US: Though it will be a slow week for economic data, it will play a crucial role in influencing gold prices and the highlight will come on Friday with the release of U.S. durable goods for March. Disappointing economic data will make it clear the Federal Reserve will be unable to raise rates as high or as fast as markets are currently expecting and as a result, gold will benefit.

US rate hike: The G-20 did acknowledge the  fact that a FED tightening could send shock waves around the Globe.

For the time being Markets are puzzled when it comes to Gold price move. Until we get clear-cut news from the U.S. economy; that will allow the Fed to make a definitive move on rates or the clearance on Greece debt deal issue, Gold is bounded in a range of $1170 to $1238.

TRADE RANGE:
 

METAL	INTERNATIONAL price	DOMESTIC price
GOLD	$1194- $1230 an ounce	Rs.26,500- Rs.27,800 per 10gm
SILVER	$15.63- $17.00 an ounce	Rs.35,000-Rs.37,500 per kg

Investment tip:

For Gold: BUY ON DIPS

For Silver: Buy for future. Some facts:
1. 750 million ounces of Sivler are produced everyday which is worth US$14 billion. A price tag which is nothing in the current world. Individual companies are brought and sold at this price level.
2. New silver deposit exploration has found very little over the last decade.
3. Uses of Silver have been growing consistently in medical, Solar, Industrial etc fields. Relating to its increasing demand. A did read in an article that if the Silver is used at the current rate and only this much production happens across the world, then it can be extinct in the next 25 years or so.

“The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.”

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