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Thursday 18 May 2017

Gold looks positive while uncertainties prevail

Last week gold closed on a positive note over political uncertainties in United states following the sacking of FBI chief James Comey pressured the Dollar and equities fell.

Though gold prices were down through the week, by Friday they rose for a second straight session.

The trend continued in Asia and early Europe last Friday with the dollar unable to gain an additional traction as USD/JPY hit resistance above 114.00


There were a series of data released last week that compelled gold to move in a wave like pattern-

  • New applications for U.S. jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week, while producer prices rebounded strongly in April,pointing to a tightening labor market and rising inflation that could spur the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in June.
  • The headline US retail sales data was weaker than consensus forecasts with a 0.4% monthly increase and the underlying increase was also below expectations at 0.3% compared with an expected 0.5% although the impact was offset to some extent by upward revisions to the March data.
  • The consumer inflation data was also weaker than expected with a headline increase of 0.2% for the month compared with an expected 0.3% gain.
  • Core prices increased 0.1% on the month with the year-on-year rate declining to 1.9% from 2.0% previously.
  • The Chinese new loans data was above consensus expectation which helped underpin confidence in the short term growth outlook, although money supply growth was lower than expected.
  • The combination of a weaker dollar and lower bond yields put upward pressure on gold prices with a move to above $1,230 per ounce before a correction back to just below this level.
  • Gold holdings to back the giant GLD gold ETF trust fund ended Thursday unchanged at an 8-month low, but the iShares SLV silver ETF shrank by 74 tonnes – almost a whole day's global silver mining output – as shareholders liquidated their positions. 
  • That took the SLV down almost 9% from last fall's near record-high holdings, then equal to more than two-fifths of annual silver mine production worldwide. 
  • Federal funds futures implied traders saw about a 49 percent chance the Fed would increase rates twice by the end of 2017 shortly after the data, compared with 54 percent just before the release of the latest readings on U.S. store sales and the consumer price index, CME Group's Fed Watch programme showed.

Gold is highly sensitive to rising rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced.

Continuing with previous weeks sentiments this week too gold opened on a positive note.
Gold rose as U.S. political turmoil, a missile test by North Korea and a worldwide cyber-attack fuelled demand for safe-haven assets, while weaker than expected U.S. data pushed the dollar lower, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Spot gold was up 0.4 percent at $1,233.69 an ounce during trending hours on Monday, on track for a third day of gains after hitting an eight-week low of $1,213.81 last week. U.S. gold futures gained 0.5 percent to $1,233.60.

Gold was once again set to rise over continued unpredictability of the Trump administration, North Korea flexing its muscles again and weaker U.S data.
Gold prices increased for a fourth day onTuesday as the dollar eased on signs of slower economic activityin the United States that knocked expectations of an aggressivestring of interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The New York Federal Reserve bank said on Monday its Empire State Manufacturing Activity index, a report on business activity in the state;unexpectedly fell in May, sinking intonegative territory for the first time since October.

The-weaker-than-expected report could be a harbinger a possible descent in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Expectations of a U.S. rate increase in June fell to 74 Percent compared to 84 percent last week, according to the CMEFedWatch.

Higher interest rates tend to boost the dollar and push bond yields up, putting pressure on gold prices by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

A lift in gold prices is expected over a risk aversion sentiment due to recent global developments including the North Korean missile test, the massive"ransom ware" cyber-attack and controversies surrounding U.S.President Donald Trump
 

Saturday 15 April 2017

Akshaya Tritiya’ a day for GOLD?

India is probably the only country where a religious day is linked to a practice of gold buying. It is the Akshaya Tritiya festival day and we are talking tons of gold here. According to estimates, Indian consumers bought about 20 tonnes of the precious metal on this festive day in 2010. However this was much lower than the buy in 2009 due to soaring prices. India, the world's largest consumer of the yellow metal, bought some 45 tonnes of Gold in 2009. So what makes Akshaya Tritiya a day for GOLD?

For Indians buying gold is a popular activity on Akshaya Tritiya day, as it is the ultimate symbol of wealth and prosperity. This year the date of Akshaya Tritiya is Saturday, 29th April. This day is important to both Hindus and Jains. According to the traditional panchang Akshaya Tritiya falls on the third day (Tritiya) of the new moon of Vaishakh month (April-May) every year.





Akshaya in Sanskrit means one that ‘never diminishes’ (a—kshaya) and the day is believed to bring good luck and success. Hindus believe they can get lasting prosperity by buying precious metals on the day. Akshaya Tritiya is traditionally earmarked for beginning new ventures, for investing and purchasing valuables especially gold, jewellery and diamond. It is no surprise Indians buy gold on Akshaya Tritiya as it is considered very auspicious and a safe investment. It is also believed that any meaningful activity started on this day would be fruitful.

We all know that 2011 was the best performing year for gold wherein the yellow metal gave highest returns compared to all assets in it class.

Economically this day is quite productive for marketers as they cash in on the festivity to boost their sales. Marketers indulge in high voltage advertisement campaigns especially the jewellery stores. In fact people in India and overseas book jewellery in advance and take delivery on Akshaya Tritiya day. It’s a day of frenzy buying for all precious metals especially gold. Sales on Akshaya Tritiya day usually increases four to five times compared to normal days. Traditionally the preference for customers is to buy light-weight jewellery, diamond jewellery but today’s economic superpower India sees several buyers preferring diamond jewellery purchases.

India is a secular country and each religion has its own story behind the celebrating Akshaya Tritiya and buying gold on this auspicious occasion.

Let’s have a brief look at the different stories behind each celebration.

According to Hindu astrology, the entire Akshaya Tritiya day is auspicious. So there is no need to look for an auspicious time i.e. no ‘Muhurat’ required on this day. This is the only day in any year when the Sun which is the lord of the planets and Moon which is the lord of creativity are in exaltation meaning at their peak of radiance. Astrologically this is extremely auspicious. That also makes this day one of the most popular dates in Hindu calendar for marriages and partnerships.

Glance through the annals of ancient Indian heritage and one finds that on this Tritiya day of Vaishakh month many significant things of great spiritual importance happened. According to Jain legends, this day is auspicious as people from Ayodhya bought gold and jewellery to offer to their Tirthankara Rshabhdev who was the King of Ayodhya centuries ago. Jains, even today, observe long term fast to commemorate their first Tirthankara Rishabhdev and break their fast on Akshaya Tritiya day with sugar cane juice as Rishabhdeva broke his fast with that juice after 1 year.

According to the ancient Hindu religious texts like the Puranas, this day marked the beginning of the "SatyaYug" or the Golden Age - the first of the four Yugas. It is believe that on this day Lord Krishna gave Draupadi a bowl - Akshaya patara (where food came in abundance) when the Pandavas were in exile. Traditionally this third day in the bright fortnight of Vaishakh is also the day of the sixth incarnation of Lord Vishnu ~ the ‘preserving’ manifestation of God in the Hindu Trinity.

On this day of Akshaya Tritiya, Maharishi Veda Vyas along with Lord Ganesha started writing the great epic Mahabharata. It is also the day the most sacred river of the Hindus, Ganga descended to earth. On this day Sudama visited his childhood buddy Lord Krishna with a hearty gift of a handful of beaten rice (poha). The good returns (prasad) he got in return for his devotion to the Lord is a classical story told in Hindu households. On such a day associated with Lord Krishna the story of Sudama’s offering is mentioned along with Lord Krishna’s affirmation in his Holy Gita ~ "Whoever offers a leaf, a flower, a fruit or even water with devotion, that I accept, offered as it is with a loving heart ".

Thus, many are the reasons for Akshaya Tritiya to be considered a wish fulfilling day. Any worship performed or daan (donation) given on this day is considered extremely good karma. Good karma is considered meritorious and is supposed to bestow beneficial results.

Akshaya Tritiya Muhurat to Buy Gold

April 28, 2017 (Friday) - 10:29 to 29:46+
Auspicious Choghadiya timings between 10:29 to 29:46+
Morning Muhurat (Char, Labh, Amrit) = 10:29 - 10:41
Afternoon Muhurta (Shubh) = 12:19 - 13:57
Afternoon Muhurta (Char) = 17:13 - 18:51
Night Muhurta (Labh) = 21:34 - 22:56
Night Muhurta (Shubh, Amrit, Char) =
24:18+ - 28:24+
Akshaya Tritiya Muhurat to Buy Gold
April 29, 2017 (Saturday) - 05:46 to 06:55
Auspicious Choghadiya timings between 05:46 to 06:55
No Muhurat Available