Dollar Went Up The Hill And Gold Came Tumbling After

Gold headed towards its biggest decline in five months this week post the FOMC meeting. The FOMC stated that it would speed up its expected pace of policy tightening.

Since the yellow metal is extremely sensitive and influenced by the dollar and interest rate, such a volatile movement was quite obvious. Due to this characteristic, gold suffered a downfall as the dollar and US real yields both reached two-month highs. The central bank kept its interest rates and monthly bond purchases unchanged, as widely expected and concluded the meeting. The Fed on Wednesday signalled it would be considering whether to taper its asset purchase programme meeting by meeting and brought forward projections for the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes into 2023.

Following hawkish comments from Fed officials, the dollar jumped to a two-month high and was on track for its best week in nearly nine months. On the other hand, gold prices fell below $1800 an ounce on Thursday in London, disconcerting the largest bullion dealers in India. The yellow metal witnessed its 7th worst-ever trading day after the US Federal Reserve spooked the bond, equity and commodity markets by signalling an earlier rise in interest rates than previously forecast, leading in turn to expectations that its QE bond-buying will start to 'taper' sooner than later.

This uncertainty (especially in the forex markets) has led to a steep fall in gold and gold coin prices in Mumbai. The Federal Reserve has disrupted the summer torpor that the markets had settled into by signalling on Wednesday that two rate hikes could be in the cards by the end of 2023, a year earlier than expected. Though gold is considered as a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates will reduce its appeal as they translate into a higher opportunity cost of holding the metal.

The haven appeal of gold took a beating earlier this week on the release of the FOMC statement which indicated interest among a majority of committee members to expect rate hikes to begin as soon as 2023, amid a rapid economic recovery underway. This helped the US dollar, as well as bond yields, climb higher, further exerting pressure on the yellow metal, weakening interest in it among investors.

Just when people were about to write off gold, it managed to rise on Friday. At the time of writing, gold is trading at a little above $1,785. There is no doubt that the strengthening of the dollar will be challenging for gold, but looking at the other macro factors, we feel that gold and gold coins in Mumbai should be able to withstand rising yields as long as it is driven by rising inflation expectations. That was, however, not what we saw yesterday, so once again the million-dollar question is whether inflation will be a passing phenomenon or longer-lasting.

Despite the current high-growth, inflationary environment, the proposed Fed rate hikes are not expected to set in for at least another 18 months. So after a little bit more weakness here, gold prices will regroup and push higher.

Global commodity markets look set to undergo a major change in tone over the coming quarter as the rampant gains that have characterized the pandemic era give way to a more muted performance. Looking ahead, continued dollar strength will pose a challenge while gold should be able to withstand rising yields as long as it is driven by rising inflation expectations.

For now, the market including the largest bullion dealers in India trusts the judgement of the Federal Reserve and until data potentially proves them wrong, gold and with that also silver may face another challenging period.

Gold Will Be Watched Closely

Gold has had a great run of late, encompassing a 14.7% rise across just 60 trading days (from 1673 on Mar 8 to 1919 on June 1) which is an annualized pace of 61.8%. Last week gold and gold coin prices were seen hovering around $1900 an ounce. A lot of activity was seen happening which led to this price movement -

• The debate around price pressures,
• Speculation over whether the Federal Reserve will start talks on the idea of tapering its massive bond-buying program, 
• Thursday’s U.S. consumer-price index report numbers.

Data coming in from the US created a significant impact on the markets. On Friday, gold rose 1.1% as a Labour Department report showed the following key numbers -

• Some 599k jobs were added last month, compared to a 650k baseline forecast. 
• The unemployment rate fell to 5.8% from 6.1% in the prior month, hitting the pandemic-era low.
• The labour participation rate was little changed. 

However, this rally was short-lived as Yellen's comments dampened the rise. Bullion ticked lower after Yellen said on Sunday that President Joe Biden should push forward with his $4 trillion spending plans even if they trigger inflation that persists into next year, adding a “slightly higher” interest rate environment would be a “plus.”

Gold prices pulled back slightly following Yellen’s comment about inflation and interest rates. As a result, the 10-year Treasury yield rebounded, reflecting reflation hopes. Real yields edged higher, denting the appeal of gold as the opportunity cost of holding is increased.

Looking back at Friday’s close, a slight miss on May’s nonfarm payrolls data cooled fears about the Fed tapering stimulus and sent bullion prices 1% higher, keeping bullion dealers in India on their toes. Gold declined as investors weighed comments by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on interest rates against U.S. jobs data which missed expectations.

Piling on record historical global debts and holding rates down at 5,000-year lows are likely to stoke inflation like we haven't seen for a long time. Gold and RSBL gold coins have been sensing this since 2000 but have kicked into high gear once again since late 2019. You've no doubt seen and felt the increase in the prices of food and pretty much every other consumable. The Fed says the recent bump in inflation is transitory, but the action in precious metals says otherwise. It's why gold prices are up 42% in just the last two years. Sustained high inflation, coupled with low nominal interest rates, creates an environment of extended negative real interest rates. And that is when gold thrives, making bullion dealers in India happy.

Investors and bullion dealers in India will be closely watching commentary by the U.S. central bank as inflation ticks higher and policymakers move closer to paring the huge asset acquisition that saved the economy from the turmoil caused by the pandemic. The monetary support has driven the Fed’s balance sheet to a record, while muscular fiscal spending has enhanced government debt. Both may pose a concluding risk to the dollar’s value, potentially buffing the appeal of alternatives and probably pushing gold to new highs.