Gold Expected To Bounce

November wasn’t a great month for the yellow metal as prices were down almost 4%. This was the biggest drop seen since November 2016. This decline was seen following positive news about a deal between Beijing and Washington which further weakened demand for the safe-haven metal.

Hopes for an interim U.S.-China trade deal buoyed demand for riskier assets.

There was not much clarity as to where will these trade talks lead to, hence the volatility was reflected in the trading prices.

Dampening gold prices pushed the dollar prices high as both are inversely proportional.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday signed into law congressional legislation backing protesters in Hong Kong, prompting Beijing to warn of “firm countermeasures”.

The Hong Kong protest went uglier as the reports suggest, thus souring the mood and thereof on their indices. Friday being half session, the US and data flow once again big here are few warnings from economists when they say that Hong Kong is the biggest political risk for financial markets. Today there is rupee traction on the weaker side.

Gold considered a safe store of the value during economic or political uncertainties, has gained more than 13% this year, mainly due to the tariff dispute.

But this week gold once failed to make headway through USD $1,460 - $1,465 on Wednesday, sold lower on trade headlines and strong U.S. data. It was generally one-way traffic throughout the session, as the yellow metal skewed offered in Asia, before accelerating declines in Europe/U.S. hours.

If the yellow metal crosses the $1500 an ounce mark then there is further potential for a price rise. But if it breaks below $1445 then a significant correction is expected which will result in further losses for gold prices.

A break above $1,500/oz would suggest the potential for additional upside in prices. In contrast, a break below $1,445/oz would point to a more significant correction underway, and we would expect further losses for gold prices.

Gold seems to be under pressure though it may hit the lower side target near 37500 and should give little bounce towards $1470 in the international markets where traders can sell for moderate gains.

In Prithviraj Kothari's opinion, Gold seems to be under pressure though it may hit the lower side target near 37500 and should give little bounce towards $1470 in the international markets where traders can sell for moderate gains.

Gold - Safe, Sound And Stable

In my weekly blogs, I generally talk about gold’s performance, why it has behaved in a particular manner in the respective week, how it looks like and a major economic outlook of the yellow metal.

But today I would like to write about gold from the investors or the markets view point- as to why gold has been in high demand in spite of rising prices, should you look at gold from an investors perceptive, should you diversify your portfolio in to the yellow metal etc.

Gold creates a feeling of safety and security. Most retail investors and fashion and lifestyle consumers trust gold more than the currencies of countries

A bar of gold always retains its value, crisis or no crisis. This creates a sense of security.

As we all know that gold is an asset that has highest liquidity. Gold bolsters confidence in the stability of the central bank’s balance sheet and creates a sense of security.

One of the main reasons, apart from de-dollarization, why central banks have started piling up their reserves.

A study reveals two out of three investors sees gold as a safeguard against inflation and currency fluctuation. A similar number believe gold holds value in the long term, owning the precious metal makes them feel secure and is more trusted than most currencies.

Instead of discouraging people from buying gold, or convincing them that gold is an irrelevant asset, many of these financial advisors are increasingly honest about the true properties of this monetary metal and what importance it holds in your portfolio.

Seeing gold’s safe haven appeal and store value, I wouldn’t be wrong if I say that it is one of the most sought after precious metals.

It is considered as a global medium of payment and it preserves high purchasing power. A country high on gold reserves is always considered as an economically rich and sound country. Gold is highly durable and enduring.  In the past gold was also considered as a means of currency. Even today, every reserve currency in the world today is underpinned by vast gold reserves. Gold is and will always be considered as a strong pillar of stability for any monetary system.

On the other hand when we see the other assets in its class- Shares, bonds and other securities, real estate etc, none of them are risk free and subject to high fluctuations and prices drops during uncertainties. But gold will always yield its value even when times are critical.

Looking at the current year- 2019 has certainly been an exciting year, with gold breaking through long-defended resistance levels.

When we look at the current markets we can see that gold is being pulled and pushed by various factors simultaneously, in fact tether are some factors that contradict itself in influencing gold prices-.

The topics dominating the headlines — Brexit, the US-China trade war and the possible impeachment of US President Donald Trump — all have an effect on the global economy.

In  Prithviraj Kothari's opinion, The performance of gold in 2019 looks even more impressive relative to other precious metals such as silver and platinum.

Strengthening US dollar contradicted by slow global growth- The price of gold and stock markets have seen record highs and the US dollar is strong. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) have been cutting interest rates, yields on $17 trillion (Dh62.4tn) of bonds have turned negative and global economic growth has slowed.

The International Monetary Fund revised down its projections of global economic growth for the fifth time last month with the world’s economy expanding 3 per cent this year, its slowest expansion since the 2008 global financial crisis.

Against this interest rate backdrop, defensive positioning by investors is on the rise, which is supporting gold’s upward price movement in several ways. As global uncertainty has risen, investors have responded according to conventional wisdom, turning to fixed income markets for both safety and stability.

Anybody who’s holding 50 per cent in equities and going towards riskier, non- investment-grade bonds because they need yields should have between 5 and 8 per cent gold in their portfolio.

despite a slight risk of prices declining to the $1,450 an ounce level first, the overall picture for gold is optimistic as investors look ready to buy more.