Consolidation in Gold & Silver prices: RSBL

                                        By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL

So far this year has been positive for gold compared to the past couple of years. Reasons behind this are the current market uncertainty and unconventional monetary policies that have continued to support the prices of Gold along with central banks and ETF’s demand for gold has given a boost to Gold prices.

Gloom over the global economic outlook and concern over central banks’ firepower, uncertainty about China’s economic recovery and growing volatility ahead of the UK’s EU referendum next month are adding fuel to the fire.

Gold price action has been erratic at the start of the new trading month. At the start of May, gold surged to $1303, its strongest since January 2015, but earlier last week fell to a two-week low of $1257 and currently trading around $1250.

Precious metals showed a firm up move at the start of the week, with prices up an average of 0.7 percent, gold prices were up 0.5 percent at $1,271. But it has slowly faded and the down move has begun which could be due to the fact that over-extended gross fund long positions in Gold and Silver have made the markets vulnerable to a spate of profit-taking.

The Fed minutes released yesterday caused an increase in Dollar strength. The statements proved to be more hawkish than the market expected where some FED members would look forward to a June month rate hike if the economic situation improves. Labour market conditions continue to improve and the inflation progress is towards the committee objective but the consistency is important for the next hike to take place.

But physical demand in India has been a major obstacle. High prices and industrial action in India led to a 19-percent drop in jewellery demand that could not be offset by seasonal buying and the increase around the traditional gold-buying festivals.

Other data released during the week that influenced gold prices were:

• In US data released Thursday, weekly unemployment claims during the week ending May 7 raised for the third straight week to 294,000, above the forecast of 270,000.
• Import prices month-over-month in April ticked up 0.3 percent, under the economic consensus of 0.6 percent.
• The weak US data had sent spot gold to as high as $1,281 overnight but the rally proved short-lived as it was soon sold down to the mid-$1,260’s. 

The negative interest rate atmosphere in Europe and Japan, combined with uncertainty over the Chinese economy, anticipation of slower interest rate rises in the US and global stock market turmoil have proved to be in favour of gold.

The yellow metal along with Silver have been consolidating but are also holding up and what we need to watch is that whether it could suffer significant profit-taking given the extent of the long positions.

Until there is a sustained break above $1280, a new rally in Gold does not appear on the cards while Silver needs to break above $17.20. Currently, according to me in the Indian SPOT markets the Gold would trade in the range of INR 28,900 to INR 30,300 while in Silver the range would be INR 38,500 to INR 42,000.

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The primary purpose of this article by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

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HAPPY AKSHAYA TRITIYA: RSBL

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HAPPY AKSHAYA TRITIYA: RSBL

                                                    By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL

Firstly wishing everyone a very Happy Akshaya Tritiya. May this year be filled with wealth and prosperity.

We have seen many stories being revolved around this auspicious occasion. Our mythology and scriptures are filled with many interesting stories that relate to Akshaya Tritiya. Out of those, the tale if friendship between Lord Krishna and Sudama is relevant not only to understand the importance of this day, but also to emphasize on the need of having a true friend.

Sudama, also known as Kuchela, was one of Krishna’s childhood friends and the two share an equation so strong that it has become a legend of sorts. According to Hindu mythology, while Krishna went on to rule Dwarka, Sudama led a simple life and could hardly make ends meet. He needed all the financial assistance he could to led a normal life. Sudama led a life of poverty. 

One day, his wife could not bear to see their children hungry and said “can’t you ask Lord Krishna for help?” Sudama agreed but decided that he would not ask Krishna for anything. Then Sudama's wife borrowed some puffed rice from a neighbor and gave it to Sudama as a gift for Krishna. When Sudama came to Dwarka, Krishna was overjoyed! Then, he saw his pouch and snatched it fro

m his hand. “Puffed Rice! My favorite dish!” said Krishna and he ate a handful of rice greedily. 

Before he could take a second handful, Rukmini, stopped him, saying “One mouthful will give him all that he needs my Lord!”/ The next morning, Sudama left Dwarka. As he approached his house he saw a grand mansion. His wife and children came out wearing jewels and fine clothes. Sudama was filled with joy and happiness as his friend had given him more than he ever needed. The day when Krishna blessed Sudama with abundant wealth was marked as Akshaya Tritiya. 

This is one of the reasons why this day is celebrated as a day of material gain and wealth. Hence the custom of buying gold, silver, real estate etc has been followed.

Once again, it’s that time of the year where everyone is talking about investing in gold! Buying gold funds, jewelry and coins on Akshaya Tritiya is considered the best way to invest your wealth on this auspicious day. Though nowadays people look for other avenues like real estate, gadgets but nothing can replace gold.

 As the history of our country has it, after Dhanteras, maximum purchase of Gold, Silver and Platinum happen on this day.

People this year are full of mixed feelings-anxiety, excitement, nervousness as a lot is been happening around gold since the past few weeks.

Generally we also witness a price rise few days ahead of Akshaya Tritiya due to the rise in demand for the yellow metal.

In fact demand for gold this year is expected to be better than last year because-

Monsoons- A good monsoon will lead to rise in demand for gold prices this year which will ultimately boos prices. Those who expect further rise in gold prices may advance their purchases.

Strike- the jewelers went on strike after the announcement of excise levy. The industry is gearing up to meet the pent-up demand, which will be witnessed during this Akshaya Tritiya. There were many players who couldn’t make their purchases during the strike and will now enter the market to buy gold on this auspicious day

Gold rally- Recent rally in gold prices due to global influential factors have propelled investors and traders to anticipate further price rise which has pre-poned their purchases of the yellow metal.

As we all know this quarter has been the best quarter for gold in the past three decades. Prices have ranged between Rs.24, 910 to Rs.30, 300 per 10 gram. On one side where we see sales dampening due to this high volatility, on the other hand we also expect the demand for gold to rise given the global and domestic factors that have been influencing gold.

Traders also anticipate that in terms of volume, consumer demand might witness a negative growth of about 10%, but in value terms, it is likely to be at par with last year’s sales.

Above all demand for gold this year is expected to be comparatively better that the past 2 years.

The primary purpose of this article by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

 Previous Blog

"RSBL: Gold & Silver Price Rise"

http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2016/05/rsbl-gold-silver-prices-rise.html