GOLD AND SILVER ON A SWING

by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL

Last year investors sent bullion tumbling by the most in three decades which they kept dumping the metal recently.  But gold has once again become a valuable commodity. Demand for gold is increasing and prices are defying bearish forecasts.

Gold has proved that the bearish sentiment in the market was indeed just a thought and gold's performance this year has proved it. 

US economy is on the path of recovery and it is clearly visible from the recent government data that was released. Prices are speculated to retreat by the end of the year and inflation concerns along with pockets of unrest are sending investors into gold as a safe haven.

Violence spread in the Ukraine and Iraq and the Fed's reservations that it will keep interest rates near record lowed has kept gold prices high.

The gold and silver market heated up last week after they didn’t do much in the previous week. The minutes of the FOMC meeting may have partly contributed to the rally of precious metals by the end of last week: The minutes revealed the FOMC may keep the interest rates for a long time until the inflation start to pick up towards the Fed’s target of 2%. This dovish tone may have sparked another rally of gold and silver. 

During last week, the price of gold increased by 1.27%; the average price reached $1,326.88/t. oz which was 0.21% above last week’s average. 

The FOMC dovish policy is getting gold and silver back and is boosting up their prices too.

Moreover, if the Chinese economy doesn't show much progress, it will play a secondary role in impacting the bullion market. But on the other hand if the US economy moves on the path of recovery then it will pull up equities and curb down the rally of gold and silver.

Short term concerns over inflation and the ongoing geopolitical turmoil in many parts of the world has been the main reason behind pushing gold prices high. 

Gold was once again on the see saw this week. As the week began, gold fell sharply. On Monday, gold witnessed on profit taking after reaching the highest level since March in the previous week and ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s congressional testimony. 

There was a rally in gold prices on Thursday, over the tragic plane crash incident and a pickup in hostilities in the Israeli-Hamas conflict.

On Thursday, The Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur was "blown out of the sky", by a ground launched missile killing nearly 300 people aboard and sharply raising the stakes in a conflict between Kiev and pro-Moscow rebels that has set Russia and the West at daggers drawn.

The blame game , cranked up global pressure which created a way for a local conflict.

Ukraine's state security chief accused two Russian military intelligence officers of involvement with pro-Russian rebels in the downing of a Malaysian airliner on Thursday, releasing chilling testimony of what he called an "inhuman crime."

This incident kept gold over $1300. Gold for August delivery, the most actively traded contract, jumped $7.50 or 0.6 percent to close at $1,309.40 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday. Gold for August delivery scaled an intraday high of $1,325.50 and a low of $1,305.00 an ounce.

But by Friday, gold pulled back from the knee-jerk reaction. The safe-haven benefits for gold faded on Friday, with the precious metal dropping in electronic trading, as a lack of physical follow-through made that upward move unsustainable.

Moreover, SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold backed exchange traded fund, said its holdings fell 2.69 tonnes to 803.34 tonnes on Thursday.

But the yellow metal is still down nearly 2 per cent for the week, following a six week winning line over fears as Portugal financial crisis faded and investors worry about a sooner than expected hike in US interest rates

Even if U.S. rates don’t change before the second quarter of next year, the upside potential for gold over the medium term will remain capped and we may see some price pressure in the back of speculative selling, 

Next week’s economic reports are fairly light, with consumer price index data and existing home sales due out Tuesday, new home sales on Thursday and durable goods orders on Friday.

Still, gold markets will continue to watch geopolitical events, especially ahead of the weekend, which could produce more headlines out of Russia and Ukraine over the downed jet and the Middle East, where Israel has launched a ground offensive in Gaza.

METAL	INTERNATIONAL	DOMESTIC
GOLD	$1292-$1328 per ounce	Rs.27,500-Rs.29,000 per 10 gram
SILVER	$20.45-$21.70 per ounce	Rs.44,000-Rs. 47,000 per kg

The primary purpose of this article by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.
- Previous blog -
"Precious Metals.....Indeed Precious"
http://www.riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2014/07/precious-metalsindeed-precious.html

PRECIOUS METALS....INDEED PRECIOUS!!!

by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL

Ever since I have started my blog, you must have noticed that I first analyse the international markets and then the domestic markets. But since this week was an important and crucial week for gold in Indian market, as it was the newly formed government's first budget since election, I would like to glance through the domestic markets first.

The previous government had over the past two years raised the import tax on gold to 10% from 2% and mandated that 20% of imports had to be re-exported to stem a slide in the value of the rupee and narrow the current-account deficit. There were widespread expectations that some reduction in the import duty would be announced in the Budget. Traders expected at least a 2-4 per cent cut of import tax on gold. Also, some relaxation in the 80:20 scheme that was imposed by the Reserve BANK of India (RBI) last year, was expected.

But traders were left astonished as India's new government left import taxes on gold unchanged in its annual budget. Premium on gold had disappeared in the last two weeks on expectations that the government would relax restrictions on imports as India's current-account deficit more than halved to $32 billion last fiscal year.

After Finance Minister Arun Jaitley concluded his budget speech on Thursday, gold in India climbed $30 above the international price of $1329.50 an ounce. Indian gold futures jumped 2% on Thursday, widening the premium over global prices which had narrowed on the duty cut expectation.

Simultaneously, we saw gold prices zooming in the international markets too. Factors for the same were:

EU Data:  Gold rallied on sliding European equities and a weak euro zone industrial output data. Given the recent weak economic data coming out of the European Union, traders will be closely watching European bond yields, for clues on European investor confidence. The European Union sovereign debt crisis is not that far removed from the market place. 

Chinese Data: Chinese trade data was much below expectations. China’s exports grew by 7.2%, year-on-year, in June, which was below market expectations of a 10% rise

Portugal trouble: There were reports that a major bank or banks in Portugal are in trouble. Europe's stock markets suffered heavy falls on Thursday as troubles at Portugal's largest listed lender, Banco Espirito Santo (BES), sparked fears of a possible return to the dark days of the euro zone debt crisis. Banco Espirito Santo SA sought to calm investors after a parent company missed payment on short-term notes. 

Middle East tensions: Middle East tensions escalated as Israel this week launched a military offensive on the Gaza strip. Heavy fighting too was reported overnight. This once again focused traders attention on the Middle East. At least 78 Palestinians, most of them civilians, have been killed. This situation is a potential time bomb that could further incite unrest in other parts of the Middle East.

Ukraine's fight back: Ukrainian forces regained more ground but sustained further casualties on Thursday in clashes with separatists, while two Western allies urged Russia's Vladimir Putin to exert more pressure on the rebels to find a negotiated end to the conflict. Russia threatened Ukraine on Sunday with "irreversible consequences" after a man was killed by a shell fired across the border from Ukraine, an incident Moscow described in warlike terms as aggression that must be met with a response.

FOMC Meet: The market place has pretty much digested Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC minutes from June. They further stated that the Fed is on track and to end its monthly bond-buying program (quantitative easing) in October. Further there was no specific sign as to when the U.S central bank will start to raise interest rates but there were definitely expectations in the market that it won't take place this year and this sentiment was further reinforced by Wednesdays latest FOMC minutes.

After analyst downgrades of gold that we've all heard over the last year, money is now pouring into the metal at the slightest bit of unease.

The value of the gold funds rose by $5 billion this year as prices rallied 10 percent. The metal has rebounded from last year’s 28 percent plunge that was triggered by muted inflation and as investors shunned the metal in favour of equities. The Hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish bets on Gold by 7,344 lots to 14,272, the highest since March, in the week to July 8. In Silver, they raised their bullish bets by 7,819 contracts to 44,517, a peak since December, according to the data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday.

For now, Gold’s performance has proven the bears wrong so far this year. The bulls are being rewarded.

Following the market consensus that had recently emerged, LBMA announce that CME group and Thomson Reuters have been selected to provide the solution for the London Silver Price Mechanism.

TRADE RANGE:

METAL	INTERNATIONAL	DOMESTIC
GOLD	$1324-$1367  per ounce	Rs.28,000-Rs.29,000 per 10gm
SILVER	$20.90- $22.00  per ounce	Rs.45,500- Rs.47,500 per kg

- Previous blog -

"Geopolitical Cover for GOLD"

Link it to: http://www.riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2014/07/geopolitical-cover-for-gold.html