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Tuesday, 22 January 2013

1st FOMC MEET OF 2013 MAY CREATE WAVES IN THE BULLION MARKET



Gold and silver were on an upward trend during most of the last week. The speech addressed by Mr., Bernanke did not create much impact in the market. Now most traders and investors are waiting for the next FOMC meeting at the end of January. All eyes will be glued on the Fed's decision to adjust its policy.
Gold ended at $1687 per ounce at the end of the week and silver increased by an average 3.83 per cent this reaching $31.56.
Gold and silver prices were mainly affected due to the data published last week, namely China GDP growth, US retail sales, US jobless claims and many more. The Chinese GDP growth data and the US economic progress report may have contributed to the rally of commodities.
The same trend is continued to expect this week. As mentioned before, gold and silver price volatility will be dependent on the first FOMC meeting of 2013. The meeting might show if the FOMC is planning to slowdown its monetary expansion.
Moreover, the QE3 program is starting to have some positive effect on the prices of gold and silver. The uncertainty around future steps U.S policymakers will take vis-à-vis spending cuts and debt ceiling could keep contributing to the rally precious metals in the coming weeks. 
Bullion traders could also be affected by the EU summit. Demand for gold in India may be positively affected if the Indian Rupee will continue to strengthen against the dollar. These factors could potentially keep the pressure on the U.S. dollar to the downside, while possibly making gold and silver coveted safe haven assets for investors.

But as I stated last week, the main metal that has caught the glimpse of the investors is 'Platinum'. Platinum remained in the limelight after news abut production from the world's largest platinum miner pushed prices to their highest levels since early October. Outlook for the platinum group of metals is bullish in general and the news of supply disruption has added the price positive side of platinum

Given the 8.5% rise in the white metal since end of December, several market watchers said a pullback is likely, but that the bullish backdrop for platinum makes a drop in price a buying opportunity.

Gold, meanwhile, has meandered for this year, but with the gains in platinum and the yellow metal’s ability to hold support in the $1,660s an ounce area, market watchers said gold could be ready to rally if it can decidedly break through stiff resistance at $1,700. Gold should see resistance at the 55 DMA of 1697, followed by the psychological 1700 mark and more importantly the 1707 bear trend channel established since the beginning of October 2012. Support comes in at around 1675, the most recent uptrend channel and 1667.50, the 200 DMA.

Monday, 21 January 2013

GOVERNMENT HIKES DUTY on GOLD to 6%

The government's move to hike the customs duty from 4 to 6 percent will have a loud impact on the Bullion sector. The hike sums up to around INR 60,000 (approx) per kilogram of gold. To be clear, with this duty hike a difference of 7 percent between the international and domestic price of the yellow metal is evident.

This may lead to rise illegal channels and malicious activities with respect to importing gold and related products like jewellery etc., in the country. In turn it will lead to an increase in unemployment among the skilled artisans of the country (around 1-2 million people depend on this sector to earn their livelihood) as well the businesses of local jewelers across the country. 

The government should harness the existing reserve of gold in our country rather than turning towards imports and implementing this alarming hike on customs duty. Also other opportunities for revenue generation, like increasing exports should be explored by the government of India. Hiking the duty on imports will in no way, curtail the demand, as the precious metal has always been regarded as one of the best investment options for social security.