FED'S END OF EASING PROGRAMS MAY MAKE THINGS DIFFICULT FOR GOLD

Gold remained stable near its one month high- above $1690 an ounce till Wednesday morning. Gold eased on Wednesday, retreating from the previous session's one-month high, as signs of an improving global economy capped investor interest in safe-haven investments. 

Silver jumped above $32.30 an ounce, again at a one month high, as stocks and commodities were broadly flat.

However, by noon, the precious metals market moved down. The metal fell for the first time in the last three sessions, after the European Commission said consumer morale in the euro zone improved sharply in January.

Spot gold fell 0.3 percent to $1,685.54 an ounce by . It did hit a one-month high of $1,695.76 in the previous session but failed to retain upward momentum on lower investment demand and technical resistance. 

The current support level on gold is at $ 1661 and $ 1653 respectively. Gold has not reacted positively on bullish bullion news and does not seem to correlate well with currencies or oil

Gold prices in the spot market were less volatile on Wednesday due to the rise in the risk aversion in the international markets ahead of the US debt ceiling voting. Though gold and silver were moving on a positive note on Wednesday morning, worries over the decision on the US debt ceiling propelled the prices to fall by noon.

As far as China is concerned, demand continues to rise ahead of the Lunar Year Celebration on February 10. In fact traders have already stocked up for the holiday demand.

In India, appreciation in the rupee forced downside pressure on the gold prices.

Moreover in India, the market for physical gold remains quiet due to the increase in duty on gold. The Indian government lifted the import duty on refined gold to 6 percent from 4 percent and more than doubled the import duty on gold bars and ores. 

The government's move to hike the customs duty will have a loud impact on the Bullion sector. The hike sums up to around INR 60,000 (approx) per kilogram of gold. To be clear, with this duty hike a difference of 7 percent between the international and domestic price of the yellow metal is evident.

This may lead to rise illegal channels and malicious activities with respect to importing gold and related products like jewellery etc., in the country and also adversely affect the jobs of skilled artisans and local jewelers.

The government should harness the existing reserve of gold in our country rather than turning towards imports and implementing this alarming hike on customs duty. Also other opportunities for revenue generation, like increasing exports should be explored by the government of India.

Friday being Eid and Saturday being Republic Day, domestic markets were more or less stable.

Demand in the physical gold market remained strong in most of Asia, but buying by major bullion consumer India was expected to pause in the next few days while the government provides details on tax changes this week.

Meanwhile, the further talks regarding the US debt ceiling and the spending cut may influence precious metals prices in the weeks to come.

The current support level on gold is at $1661 and $1653 respectively. Gold has not reacted positively on bullish bullion news and does not seem to correlate well with currencies or oil

Gold investors were looking ahead this week to a heavy schedule of economic indicators, including gross domestic product, the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Index and the January employment situation report, among others.

1st FOMC MEET OF 2013 MAY CREATE WAVES IN THE BULLION MARKET

Gold and silver were on an upward trend during most of the last week. The speech addressed by Mr., Bernanke did not create much impact in the market. Now most traders and investors are waiting for the next FOMC meeting at the end of January. All eyes will be glued on the Fed's decision to adjust its policy.

Gold ended at $1687 per ounce at the end of the week and silver increased by an average 3.83 per cent this reaching $31.56.

Gold and silver prices were mainly affected due to the data published last week, namely China GDP growth, US retail sales, US jobless claims and many more. The Chinese GDP growth data and the US economic progress report may have contributed to the rally of commodities.

The same trend is continued to expect this week. As mentioned before, gold and silver price volatility will be dependent on the first FOMC meeting of 2013. The meeting might show if the FOMC is planning to slowdown its monetary expansion.

Moreover, the QE3 program is starting to have some positive effect on the prices of gold and silver. The uncertainty around future steps U.S policymakers will take vis-à-vis spending cuts and debt ceiling could keep contributing to the rally precious metals in the coming weeks. 

Bullion traders could also be affected by the EU summit. Demand for gold in India may be positively affected if the Indian Rupee will continue to strengthen against the dollar. These factors could potentially keep the pressure on the U.S. dollar to the downside, while possibly making gold and silver coveted safe haven assets for investors.

But as I stated last week, the main metal that has caught the glimpse of the investors is 'Platinum'. Platinum remained in the limelight after news abut production from the world's largest platinum miner pushed prices to their highest levels since early October. Outlook for the platinum group of metals is bullish in general and the news of supply disruption has added the price positive side of platinum

Given the 8.5% rise in the white metal since end of December, several market watchers said a pullback is likely, but that the bullish backdrop for platinum makes a drop in price a buying opportunity.

Gold, meanwhile, has meandered for this year, but with the gains in platinum and the yellow metal’s ability to hold support in the $1,660s an ounce area, market watchers said gold could be ready to rally if it can decidedly break through stiff resistance at $1,700. Gold should see resistance at the 55 DMA of 1697, followed by the psychological 1700 mark and more importantly the 1707 bear trend channel established since the beginning of October 2012. Support comes in at around 1675, the most recent uptrend channel and 1667.50, the 200 DMA.

GOVERNMENT HIKES DUTY on GOLD to 6%

The government's move to hike the customs duty from 4 to 6 percent will have a loud impact on the Bullion sector. The hike sums up to around INR 60,000 (approx) per kilogram of gold. To be clear, with this duty hike a difference of 7 percent between the international and domestic price of the yellow metal is evident.

This may lead to rise illegal channels and malicious activities with respect to importing gold and related products like jewellery etc., in the country. In turn it will lead to an increase in unemployment among the skilled artisans of the country (around 1-2 million people depend on this sector to earn their livelihood) as well the businesses of local jewelers across the country. 

The government should harness the existing reserve of gold in our country rather than turning towards imports and implementing this alarming hike on customs duty. Also other opportunities for revenue generation, like increasing exports should be explored by the government of India. Hiking the duty on imports will in no way, curtail the demand, as the precious metal has always been regarded as one of the best investment options for social security.

My Defamation case against BBA!

On Wednesday, 16th Jan, 2013, 

I had invited media for a press conference at RSBL's office, wherein the agenda was to give the clarity on the recent events between RSBL and BBA.

 

                      Kindly note that, the following is a PRESS RELEASE handed over to media!

RSBL, Kothari file defamation case against Bombay Bullion Association

a.   It is not Mr. Prithviraj Kothari who is a member of the BBA but RiddiSiddhi Bullions Limited (RSBL) who is a member of the BBA (membership no 895). Mr. Prithviraj Kothari was the President of the BBA till his term as a President of BBA got over in September 2012.

b.   BBA’s allegations in the newspaper that Mr. Kothari was involved in a fraud are wrong, illegitimate and malicious. Mr. Kothari did not act in his personal capacity as a President but in a board meeting of the BBA in March 2011, the directors resolved to give the lower ground floor of the Bombay Bullion Exchange Refinery building on leave and license to M/s S.L. Industries, a firm which is into the minting of coins. Mr. Prithviraj Kothari was not a signatory to any of the documents concerning the lease. This fact can be confirmed from the leave & license agreement dated 29^th May, 2012 registered with the Sub-Registrar of Assurances, Mumbai on 05^th June, 2012. Since the floor was in a dilapidated condition since 60 years and due to maintenance and cleanliness of sewage lane, it took additional time for BBA to get it operational. Proper procedure was followed. Paper advertisements were given twice and on the basis of that, two firms had submitted their interest. S.L. Industries was finalized as it offered favorable terms to the association. Hence the following allegations are baseless:

i. That it was 3000 sq ft was wrong. It was only 780 sq ft built up. These details are mentioned in the agreement.

ii. Besides, the allegation that there was no royalty income to BBA was wrong. S.L. Industries was to pay BBA royalty of Re 1 on every gold coin and Rs 0.25 on every silver coin.

iii. That Mr. Kothari manipulated the minutes of meetings for giving undue advantage to his nephew is baseless since the premise was given on rent to a firm where one Mr. Shailesh Jain of S.L. Industries who is in the business of minting coins since 25 years, is the main partner. The board had resolved that the unused premise be given for a combination of rent and royalty. An extract of the same is attached. Further, a letter from the then serving Directors of BBA is also attached confirming their presence and approval of the said resolution.

iv. The idea behind setting up a minting facility was to enable member-jewelers inside the market to use the facility for minting of coins without commuting. Hence this would save time and money for the members at large and lesser risk. Please also note that in no way was RSBL to gain from this arrangement. To the contrary, it would become easy for other to mint coins and compete with RSBL. Various members had benefited from this service.

v.  S.L. Industries was to set up a minting facility and invest in the interiors. Also, S.L. Industries paid the full year rent in advance. The 60 year old dilapidated property was finally put to productive use.

vi.  A basement area of 780 sq ft given for a fixed rent of Rs 50000 plus royalty was market price. The arrangement didn’t last for long. The BBA, under the new president compelled S.L. Industries to vacate the premises and the latter did so with articles lying therein within less than forty eight hours. S.L. Industries have now filed proceedings in the civil court for restoration of possession and have claimed damages.

c.  The fact that BBA published photograph of Mr. Kothari (even though he is not a member of BBA) in various newspapers along with a press release accusing him of fraud, is a conspiracy and a ploy to defame RiddiSiddhi Bullions Limited and Mr. Prithviraj Kothari.

Series of Events:

December 2012

31^st Dec – BBA publishes ‘Notice’ in at least six news papers with a photograph of Mr. Prithviraj Kothari mentioning: “Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, Director of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd. Membership No 895 has been expelled from the membership of the Association in terms of powers of the Board”.  Besides this, various newspapers and television channels cover this story related to the expulsion of Mr. Kothari. Important things to note: Though the expulsion is for RiddiSiddhi Bullions as a member of BBA, carrying the photograph of Mr. Kothari was with the intention to damage his reputation worldwide.

January 2013

3^rd Jan – RSBL sends a letter asking the BBA to give an extract of the resolution. RSBL tells BBA that the expulsion was illegal and illegitimate. RSBL demanded copies of various documents which were never produced by the BBA.

7^th Jan – The Bombay City Civil Court passed an order of injunction against The BBA, staying the resolution expelling RSBL and further restrained BBA, its president and its directors and office bearers from publishing any article in the media or any other manner in respect of the expulsion of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Limited/Mr. Prithviraj Kothari.

11^th Jan – RiddiSiddhi Bullions Limited sends notice to 17 parties including the Association, its president, vice-presidents and directors asking them to furnish apologies. The notice mentions that all the parties would be liable to pay damages to the extent of Rs 100 crores and also liable to be prosecuted and punished for having committed an offence of defamation under section 500 of the IPC for which RSBL/Mr. Kothari intend to adopt appropriate proceedings, criminal as well as civil in the Court of Law against them.

14^th Jan – BBA releases another press release through a leading English daily terming Mr. Kothari as a ‘criminal fraud’. This is a clear contempt of the court. All 17 parties will be sent notices for contempt of court.

For details regarding the 17 parties kindly refer the BBA website.

MIXED SENTIMENTS FOR PRECIOUS METALS

  

It was a “risk-on” trading day in many markets as the world market place breathed a sigh of relief that U.S. lawmakers came to a 12th-hour agreement on the fiscal cliff.

Gold and silver continued to rally on Wednesday .The recent news from the U.S is that the fiscal cliff was averted. This news received the final confirmation as Congress approved the plan to increase taxes on household making over $400k per year.  Despite this news, President Obama will still need to augment the debt ceiling in February – it currently stands on $16.4 billion. This is another uncertainty that could contribute to the market volatility in the weeks to follow.

Spot gold was last quoted up $13.50 at $1,689.25. In the Indian markets gold increased by rupees 150 and was seen trading at INR 31,500 per 10gram and silver climbed almost Rs.1000 and was trading at INR  58,800 on Wednesday.y.

Silver was seen as the biggest gainer amongst precious metals after the decision from the US lawmakers regarding fiscal cliff was reached on the 12th hour. The US lawmakers reached an agreement on taxes but decisions such as debt ceiling and government spending have been delayed as of now.

Nonetheless, it was a great sigh of relief for the cluster of markets from equities to precious metals to energy on Wednesday.

Many markets worldwide, including Asian, European and U.S. stocks were cheered by U.S. lawmakers coming to agreement on the fiscal cliff matter that had been overhanging the market place for weeks. U.S. lawmakers had to reach a deal to avoid a series of tax increases and spending cuts that would have automatically gone into effect this week.

In Asia, the Hong Kong stock market hit a fresh 19-month high on some more positive economic news coming out of China. China’s manufacturing sector continues to expand, as its manufacturing PMI increased to 50.6 in December. The recent better Chinese economic data has been an underlying bullish factor for the precious metals markets

The market place Wednesday took on a “risk-on” attitude that benefitted the precious metals.

Metals are sharply higher across the board Wednesday in a relief rally after U.S. lawmakers steered the country away from the fiscal cliff, at least for the time being.

Though silver jumped high comparatively there was not much movement in gold. It could be due to the postponement of the debt ceiling and spending cut decisions.

However, Gold prices plummeted Friday, a day after the Federal Reserve released minutes that reported mixed sentiment among Fed members about the central bank's extremely loose monetary policy.

The Federal Open Market Committee -- the Fed's policy-making wing -- said Thursday that there were potential risks to financial stability over a disorderly finish to the fiscal cliff, impending disagreements about raising the debt ceiling and possible deterioration of conditions in Europe

Simply, analysts and gold investors generally view the quantitative easing measures implemented by the Fed as inflationary policy, which makes gold a safe-haven asset to defend against inflation.

Nevertheless, analysts cautioned, more turbulence may occur in the weeks ahead since the legislation approved by Congress in essence provides only a temporary reprieve on fiscal issues and did not address the debt ceiling or include spending cuts.

The aversion of fiscal cliff has proved like a temporary power booster for all markets. But how long do these markets remain charged up is the question of the day.

However, look for the market place to now focus more on the European Union and its sovereign debt crisis, now that the U.S. fiscal cliff matter has been temporarily resolved

Looking ahead to next week, technical analysts are keeping an eye on the 200-day moving average, which comes in around $1667.50. If gold remains under that level, it could keep the metal trapped in the lower part of the current range.