Felicitation of Mumbai Police commissioner: Satyapal Singh

          I am glad to be a part of the felicitation ceremony for our Mumbai Police Commissioner Satyapal Singh. Prior to being appointed the Mumbai police chief, Mr Singh was Maharashtra's additional director general of police. He has also served as the Joint Commissioner of Police (Crime) in Mumbai, Nagpur's police commissioner special inspector general of police of the Konkan range.

          He has also been on deputation to the CBI and received a special service medal for extraordinary work in the in Naxalite areas of Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. He received the President's Police Medal for distinguished service in 2004, the President's Police Medal for meritorious service in 1996 and the DG's Insignia in the same year.

        - Along with Mr. Paras Gundecha {Chairman, Gundecha builders and Gundecha group of companies. President, MCHI (Maharashtra Chamber of Housing Industry)}

I feel Mumbai's top cop: Satyapal Singh, will surely set things right for the city!

THE INDIA INTERNATIONAL GOLD CONVENTION 2012

The India International Gold Convention 2012 was a great expecience, especially when you get to share the speakers panel with great personalities like:

 

Mr. Anup K Pujari (Chairman- DGFT)

Mr. S.K. Jindal (Chairman- Jindal Group)

Mr. Rajan Venkatesh (Director- Bank of Nova Scotia)

Mr. Rajesh Khosla (Managing Director - MMTC {PAMP INDIA}

 

Mr. Mayak Khemka (MD- Khemka Group of Companies)

 Mr. Bhargava Vaidya (BN Vaidya and Associates)

           and many such important speakers. Adding to it, we were highly impressed by the response and success of the IIGC held at Novotel,  Hyderabad, India (24-25-26 August 2012)

SILVER IS BACK!

Last week bullions were seen hovering around many factors that were responsible for its volatility - Economic Stimulus, Spain Bailout, Speculation, Japanese and Chinese growth data, Jobless claims report etc.

Gold on Friday traded at $1786.35 an ounce - moving up by 18 dollars. This resulted due to a blend of news from China that they had lowered rates to boost liquidity in the ongoing operations and the other news coming from Spain that they have officially asked for a bail out.

Spain's conservative Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy had in the past insisted Madrid would not become the fourth European capital in recent years to apply for such a bailout, but sources indicate such a programme is now likely.

Bullions were mainly benefited by the various economic stimulus actions taken by central banks globally. Following the US and the Central Bank, the Bank of Japan too enlarged the size of asset buying in order to foster economic growth,

The dollar eased after lying low since months and the Euro also improved. Moreover, Gold ETF’s have attracted investors too. The world’s top gold exchange traded fund the SPDR Gold trust reported their current holdings that are at the highest level since August.

Within a fortnight we saw gold and silver bouncing to and fro from highs and low. The recent announcement by the Fed, in which they declared the launch of QE3, has been one of the main reasons behind this upward trend. Now, looking into the near term future, launch of QE3 means a strong stimulus plan that will lead to monetary easing and better liquidity in the markets. This in turn will bring about growth in the economy which will also reflect on the industrial sector. Thus, demand for silver will rise keeping in mind its vast use in various industries ranging from jewellery, automobiles, chemicals etc.

This makes silver the next favorite metals for analysts. Moreover in the Indian market (which waits the festive season) demand for silver is going to rise. Last year we saw silver touching almost Rs. 75,000 per kg. With current range for silver being Rs.60,000 - Rs.62,000 per kg, there is great space on the upper scale for silver to rise. Silver is expected to move within the range of Rs. 58,000- Rs. 72,000 per kg till Diwali.

Stockists have already starting making purchases keeping in mind the demand for this metal during the festive season.

Gold has historically been considered to be a store of value and an inflation hedge and increasingly it is being utilized as a monetary instrument but the now the focus seems to be shifting to silver- at least in the near future

Fed launches QE3: Markets get relief!!!

Last week we saw great volatility in precious metals. Gold that had reached a high of Rs. 32,200 per 10gram had plunged down to almost Rs. 31,800 and then bounced back to a new high of Rs. 32,650 after the Fed meeting. Such huge fluctuations were seen after Bernanke’s speech, in which he announced the launch of QE3.

Internationally, gold will cross $1800 ounce by year end, effect of which will be seen on the domestic prices too where gold is expected to cross Rs. 35,000 per 10 gram by year end.

The commodity and financial markets were shocked with the announcement made by the FED on Thursday. The Fed decided of buying open ended asset. This decision of the Fed created great impact on the markets in Thursday and Friday and it will continue to show it’s after affected in the weeks to come.

The market was surprised by this asset buying decision of the Fed. Traders and analysts did expect a third round of quantitative easing, but they did not expect that the Fed would take the asset buying decision.

The Fed declared that it would continue to buy asset until the labor market improved and the economy began to grow. Moreover the Fed said that it would continue with stimulus even if inflation began to exceed the

Apart from the meeting, other factors that are likely to influence the market are:

1. Tensions prevailing in the Middle East as more embassies are under the threat of attack.

     2. Business data, GDP growth released by the US, Euro zone and China

     3. Philly Fed Index and Empire State Index scheduled for discharge.

Apart from gold, one metal that has once again caught attention by investors is silver. Gold has already marked its lifetime high by crossing Rs. 32,200 and on the higher side is expected to touch 35,000. However, for silver there is immense space for growth. Last year silver peaked to almost 75,000 per kg. With current silver prices hovering at around 65,000 per kg and there are bright chances of an upward movement towards its peaked point. Silver is surely going to be the next favorite metal.

BULLIONS: 1st to 10th Sep, 2012

The prices of gold and silver resumed their rally, much like the U.S stock market. Further, the rise of major foreign exchange rates including the Euro, Aussie dollar and Canadian dollar against the USD may have also contributed to the recovery of bullion rates.

The U.S ADP Non-Farm Employment Change was expected to have a clear and substantial effect on commodities, equities and forex markets. If the report shows growth rate of above 120thousand jobs then the chances of the FED introducing a stimulus plan in 2012 will be lower. This report plays an important role not only for the US dollar but also for the bullion prices. A stable labor market would reduce pressure on the Fed to take aggressive monetary easing as its Sept. 12-13 policy meeting, such as a 3^rd round of bind buying known as quantitative easing, to underpin growth.

On 7th September, the price of gold rose by 0.68% to $1,705; Silver also increased by 1.07% to $32.67. During the week, gold increased by 1.07%; silver by 3.92%. Comex gold futures prices ended the U.S. day session with moderate gains Thursday, and hit a fresh six-month high early on.

The monthly meeting of the European Central Bank did produce the widely expected, fresh EU monetary stimulus plan, in which the ECB will buy EU countries’ bonds. The bank left rates unchanged at 0.75%, but ECB President Mario Draghi announced an “outright monetary transaction” plan, which would allow the ECB decide when to start, continue or suspend bond purchases.

In a press briefing after the ECB meeting, Draghi said this plan allows the central bank “to address severe distortions in government bond markets which originate from, in particular, unfounded fears on the part of investors of the reversibility of the euro.

The bond purchases would be “sterilized,” meaning that the amount of money put into the market via bond buys would be taken out taken out of the system in equivalent measures by other means. Also at the meeting, the ECB lowered its forecast for European growth. Since Draghi spoke, gold prices came off of their six-month high, but have held above $1,700.

Market sentiment improved after the data showed U.S employment rose more than expected and growth in the services sector gathered pace. The combination of the U.S. jobs figures and the ECB’s downward growth revision helped the U.S. dollar recover from earlier weakness.

Increase in gold prices internationally also created an impact on the domestic market

Last week, In India, gold peaked to its lifetime high crossing the 32,000 mark, just ahead of the huge festive season.

HOLE GIVES HOPE TO PRECIOUS METALS

Gold prices have been consolidating since the beginning of the year as the market is waiting for the US Federal Reserve to undertake a third round of quantitative easing. Investors expect the central bank to announce stimulus measures at its meeting in September to boost the fragile economic recovery.

The economic agenda is busy with German unemployment, EU retail PMI, UK money supply, the usual Thursday US initial jobless claims, personal income and spending and the start of the gathering at Jackson Hole 

Gold  is set for the biggest gain since January. Prices reached a four-month high of $1,676.90 on Aug. 27 on speculation that the Fed will embark on a third round of debt purchase after the Jackson Hole meeting.

The economic agenda is busy with German unemployment, EU retail PMI, UK money supply, the usual Thursday US initial jobless claims, personal income and spending and the start of the gathering at Jackson Hole 

  

Comex gold futures prices on Friday rallied sharply, hitting a fresh five-month high and are now within easy striking distance of $1,700.00. The precious metals markets took flight late Friday morning following the much-anticipated remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at a Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The Fed chief strongly hinted fresh, unconventional U.S. monetary policy stimulus will be implemented at some point. Indeed, he left the door wide open for a fresh quantitative easing initiative to be unveiled at the September FOMC meeting.

Friday is the last trading day of the month, which makes it an extra important trading day from a technical perspective—and the gold and silver bulls even took full advantage of that by pushing prices to multi-month highs. The gold and silver bulls gained fresh, solid upside technical momentum Friday, to suggest that prices can continue to trend sideways to higher for at least the near term.

Investors expectations of imminent stimulus had dimmed somewhat heading into the symposium in Jackson Hole at which Bernanke said the Fed was ready to provide more stimulus if needed, but gave no signal it was imminent.

International gold prices reflect the domestic prices too. In India, gold reached crossed it highest mark, with the rate per 10 gm reaching – Rs. 31,500 as on 28^th August 2012.

Gold is expected to move ahead of its life time high. Prices of gold may hit new highs around the Diwali festival as rising tensions in West Asia may increase demand for the metal as a safe haven investment. Civil war in Syria and geopolitical tensions in Iran are major factors pushing up prices of gold despite the fall in physical retail demand for the metal in India, China, and many other countries. In such a scenario, we could see gold touching a price over 32,000 rupees per 10 gm, may be by Diwali.

Overall the metals seem to be holding patterns ahead of what unfolds from Jackson Hole, there has unsurprisingly been some pull back after last week’s rallies as the markets consolidate and overall, although there may be some initial disappointment if QE3 is not announced (which is not likely) - the likelihood that QE3 will be kept firmly on the table may provide comfort

CELEBRATING MY 50TH BIRTHDAY

It was a moment of immense joy seeing all family, friends well wishers and the entire RSBL Family gather at Bullion House to celebrate my 50th birthday on September 1. I thank all of them for sparing time and making this day memorable for me.