Pages

RSBL Gold Silver Bars/Coins

Monday 20 May 2013

IS GOLD LOSING ITS SAFE HAVEN APPEAL?

                                    -By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)




Last week started with festivities for India as we celebrated the auspicious day of Akshaya Tritiya on 13th may. It is considered auspicious to buy gold on this day and hence the demand for gold on this particular day is expected to go up.
But this year demand for gold was not as predicted.  Whatever demand came in was mainly from retailers because the wholesalers and other bullion dealers had already made their purchases during the gold crash that was witnessed between April 12- April 16. Majority  of the purchases were made during this period. Adding to this slide in demand were the anti LBT protests which brought the major gold hubs to a standstill and buyers were confused as to where to procure their gold from.
Hence the overall demand for gold on this Akshaya Tritiya was not up to the mark.

Though world over people were shifting focus from gold to other assets in its class, the lower prices attracted buyers in China-- the world's second largest buyer of gold after India. In fact in Hong Kong and Singapore, gold bars were traded at an all time high premium, paying nearly 40 USD.

In the international markets,  gold prices dropped compelling investors to shift to other asset forms apart from gold. It seems that gold is losing its appeal as a safe haven asset after the gold crash that recorded the worst daily crash in 30 years. This week too gold dropped to a four week low and a straight fall for a seventh session on Friday.

It was the longest flash in four years as there were rumours making rounds that soon the Federal Reserve may rein in the monetary easing, thus lifting the dollar.

One of the reasons behind this decline in gold prices is the perception of investors that gold below $1400 an ounce will take much time to bounce back and hence introduce near term pressure on gold. It has also triggered heavy selling and prompted investors to favour other asset forms.
Spot gold hit a four month low at $1376 an ounce.

There was heavy liquidation coming in from New York's SDPR Gold Trust, that reported an outflow of another 5.7 tonnes on Thursday, bringing the drop in its holdings this week to more than 10 tonnes.

A strengthening US Dollar and a massive selling of exchange traded funds, together, triggered a downfall in gold prices. Moreover, there is a positive sentiment in the market about the recovery of the US economy.

Economists are looking for a stronger growth in the second half of the year and in the early 2014.

Though the development is slow, economists say that the stronger than expected improvement in several areas including labour market and retail sales has compelled investors and general public to believe that development an recovery is on its way.
A stronger US economy brings in concern for gold as people tend to shift to other investment forms like equities that are bound to shoot up when the economy revives,

For this week, the range for gold in the domestic market is expected to be around Rs.25,000 - Rs.27,500 per 10 gram.


“The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.”


- Previous blog - 
"Debate over Fed QE3 measures raises concern for gold" 

Sunday 12 May 2013

DEBATE OVER FED QE MEASURES RAISES CONCERN FOR GOLD


-By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.)




Spot gold fell as low as $1,420.60 an ounce and was last down 1.4 percent at $1,437 an ounce on Friday.

Throughout the week gold seemed consolidated in a narrow range and on Friday the prices slid. A strong USD performance against major currencies, took the wind out of the sails of Gold yesterday.

There were lot of news making rounds on the last two days of the week. Majorly, the news came in from the US, showing signs of US economic growth. Weekly data showed that US layoffs fell to pre recession levels for the first time. Fed official had made an announcement earlier that a strong labour market will compel them to roll back easy money measures. This created nervousness amongst investors who now worry that if Fed curtails its bond buying programs then gold will decline even further.

Gold is always considered as a safe haven asset and investors purchase gold to guard against the perceived risk of a weaker dollar and higher inflation. But when the economy recovers investors shy away from the yellow metal and move focus to riskier assets like equities that are tend to give better returns in a recovering economy. Gold is priced in dollars and becomes more expensive for foreign buyers when the dollar strengthens against other currencies.

The Fed's quantitative easing measures have always been a major support to bullion in recent years and any such measure by the Fed of curtailing its policies will boost the appeal of stocks at the expense of gold.

Gold price direction next week is likely to be influence by the strength of the U.S. dollar, along with U.S. economic data. Another, Interesting news that will be the released, is of 13-F filings in the US next week on May 15, where institutional investors will report their holdings at the end of Q1 and market participants are keen to see whether prominent investor Paulson and others had reduced Gold holdings.

If the reports and economic indicators turn out to be balanced and better than expected the gold will decline further but if the data comes out lower than anticipated then it would push gold prices further.

Nonetheless the main topic for debate remains that what the Federal Reserve will do with its quantitative easing measures.

Meanwhile on the domestic front, there was surprising news for the bullion market. RBI (Reserve bank of India) made an announcement that banks can import gold only to meet the genuine needs of exporters of gold jewellery. The central bank also restricted the facility of loans against gold coins per customer to gold coins weighing up to 50 gm.

This move was taken mainly to curb the import of gold. But, I don't think that the new announcement by RBI will have much an impact on the prices or demand for the yellow metal. Imports too are not expected to decline too much.

In fact or focus now will be on the monsoons. If there will be an average rainfall then import would be around 800 tonnes. The reason behind this is the demand for gold that comes from rural areas. Around 60 per cent of gold demand is from rural areas. So an average monsoon will reduce their purchasing power and thus affect the demand for gold.
On the other hand a good monsoon can push up the import figures above 1000 tonnes.
In case that happens then prices are tend to go upward.

In the next 6 months gold is expected to move in the range of Rs. 25000 - Rs. 30000 in the domestic markets

“The primary purpose of this blog by Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL, is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.”



- Previous blog - "Gold on Life support"
http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2013/05/gold-on-life-support.html