Markets seem difficult to trade

After weeks of relative stagnation, gold traders were suddenly awoken to a rise in trade volume and price volatility. In a span of one minute, gold futures contracts equaling more than 2 million ounces traded -- about 20 minutes before Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen was to address a gathering of policy makers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

The occurrence shook the market after a measure of 60-day volatility on the metal touched the lowest since 2005.

 Gold had been lying stable amid political disharmony in Washington, worries about rising U.S. interest rates and escalating geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and North Korea.

Investors were not expecting Yellen to make a policy statement anyway, but some market participants were hoping for some signal on the Fed's planned balance sheet reduction, if not on the outlook for U.S. interest rate hikes.

Yellen’s speech, which lacked clear rate cues, did little to calm the price swings and damped expectations of a rate hike this year.

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan helped fuel the sharp move before Yellen’s speech Friday by saying the central bank can afford to be patient on raising interest rates even while noting it should shrink the balance sheet soon.

These comments were dovish and pushed gold prices higher. But then when Yellen didn’t mention monetary policy, things started to stabilize again.

The dollar fell to a three-week low against the euro and a one-week trough versus the yen on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen made no reference to U.S. monetary policy in her speech at the annual central bank research conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Instead, Yellen focused on U.S. regulations, saying those put in place after the 2007-2009 crises had strengthened the financial system without impeding economic growth, and any future changes should remain modest.

Dollar had weakened because Yellen "didn't say anything positive for the U.S."

The dollar has been trading higher for most of the week after sharp losses in recent months.

The dollar fell to a one-week low of 109.23 yen after Yellen's speech. It was last down 0.2 percent at 109.33.

The euro, meanwhile, hit a three-week high against the dollar and was last up 0.6 percent at $1.1862.
Focus now shifts to the coming week wherein a few interesting events are lined up.
The yellow metal may remain range-bound in the $1,290s ahead of the U.S. Labor Day holiday on September 4th.

Labor Day can mark a variation point in various economic parameters, including the gold price.  There are also U.S. Fed and ECB policy meetings that will be held in the second half of September and the U.S. FOMC one in particular will be viewed with particular interest vis-à-vis gold given observers will be looking for clues on the likely date for the next interest rate rise decision and/or Fed balance sheet reductions.  The U.S. economy is not showing positive developments as well as forecast by the Fed so there are some who believe any rate increase will now likely be put off until next year.

The period that lies between the Labour Day and The FOMC meeting will be crucial for gold as the markets reactions all depend on this interim period.

Market reaction after Labor Day, and before the FOMC meeting will probably see gold react positively or negatively to economic data (fact or supposition)  coming out in the interim, which may hold gold back from bursting through $1,300, which it would likely do if the FOMC looks like delaying any interest rate rise decision beyond the calendar year end.  An indication that the Fed will indeed continue its tightening programme in December may pull down the gold price , but perhaps not affect its on-going progress in the medium term.

Similarly the ECB policy meeting in Frankfurt, which comes just after the FOMC meeting, will also be followed with strong interest, but may not see any further tightening while the Euro remains at current levels against the dollar.

We still see gold rising through $1,300 and perhaps hitting $1,350 by the year-end, but sometimes Q4 can prove to be a weak period for precious metals, so we are not wholly confident on this prediction.  Currently markets seem difficult to trade!

Fundamentals for Gold are strong

As we have noticed in the past months, it was mainly the dollar and Fed actions that were influencing gold prices. But last week geopolitical tensions were fueling gold prices.

Gold was on the move in the past week after a display of threat of the military force by the U.S. and North Korea pushed the safe-haven metal back onto investors' radar.

President Trump said on Tuesday that threats by the Hermit Kingdom would be met by "fire and fury," which was followed up a day later by a North Korea threat to bomb the U.S. territory of Guam.
The yellow metal climbed to $1,285/oz as tensions rose this week, the best level in about two months, driving year-to-date gains to around 11.5%.

Gold has always been considered as a safe haven asset in times of uncertainty. The current rally in gold prices is because of the rise in safe haven demand for gold.

President Donald Trump intensified up his orotundity toward North Korea and its leader on Thursday, warning Pyongyang against attacking Guam or U.S. allies after it disclosed plans to fire missiles over Japan to land near the U.S. Pacific territory.             

Gold prices rose early Wednesday amid rising tensions between the United States and North Korea after the North responded to warnings from U.S.

President Donald Trump with a threat to strike the U.S.territory of Guam.   

Though prices rose on Wednesday and Thursday, by the end of the week, prices more or less stabilized. 

Gold prices held steady after touching their highest in more than two months on Friday, as rising tensions between the United States and North Korea triggered safe-haven buying.

Geopolitical risks can boost demand for assets considered safe-haven investments, such as gold. Although more hostile magniloquence between the U.S. and North officials would temporarily boost gold prices, we see outright military action as unlikely and upward pressure on gold prices stemming from the confrontation as limited.

Meanwhile, a lower-than-expected rise in U.S. consumer prices in July suggesting benign inflation could persuade a cautious Federal Reserve to delay raising interest rates until December.                

Gold is seen being stable over easing out of the geopolitical tensions. But still, a minor escalation over the tensions can once again trigger gold prices. Hence the situation currently is quite unpredictable. 

On the other hand, The Fed expects "very weak" U.S. inflation to rebound thanks to a slide in the dollar and to a labour market that keeps getting hotter, one of the Fed's most influential officials said in comments that reinforce its gradual policy-tightening plan

Gold edged down from two-monthhighs on Monday, 14th August, , as the dollar inched up from last week's lowsand investors kept a close watch on any developments on tensionsover the Korean peninsula.

Summing it up we can say that though the threats from the Koreans have lowered, the fundamentals for gold still seem to be strong.

Bullish trends for Gold

Gold prices were holding well up during the past week breaking the long term downward trend that started off in 2011.  A weaker dollar and lower treasury yields has been supporting gold prices lately.
Gold steadied on Thursday after nearing a seven-week high in the previous session as investors awaited U.S. jobs data for further clues on the outlook for interest rate rises.Spot gold was 0.1 percent higher at $1,267.30 per ounce.

Gold rallied through most of July as the dollar fell on reduced expectations for a third U.S. rate rise this year. Inflation has been contained even though the labor market appears to be in its best shape in many years and despite double-digit U.S. earnings growth in the second quarter.

Reduced rate rise expectations tend to weaken the dollar, making dollar-priced gold cheaper for non-U.S. investors.

But by the end of the last week, gold prices were slightly bullish after the release of U.S labor report.
The latest non-farms payroll report on the US employment market was published, showing the economy added 209,000 jobs last month and that unemployment was low at 4.3 per cent, its lowest since March 2011.

This smashed economist estimates that 183,000 new jobs would be added. In response the dollar has popped higher, says Reuters.

The dollar is inversely correlated to the gold price, which is often held as a hedge as the global benchmark reserve currency.

Stronger economic data also raises the prospect of the Federal Reserve voting for a third rate rise this year in either September or December (rate rises tend to hurt non-income yielding assets like gold).
In the two hours after the report came out the gold price slumped by around $13, or one per cent, to $1,255 an ounce.

Gold's recent trend has been largely defined by the fortunes of the dollar, which is good news for gold bugs as the greenback was languishing near 15-month lows earlier this week.

The safe haven metal dropped from $1268 as the July non-farm payrolls figure came-in at 209K, beating the estimated figure of 180K. The jobless rate dropped to 4.3%, while the June trade deficit narrowed more than expected. Wage growth rose to 0.3% as expected.

Now the influential factor for gold remains that whether the dollar continues to strengthen or it may go weaker, which is likely to mean the US Federal Reserve has to remain less than hawkish. Apart from these financial drivers, any pick up in geopolitical issues could also fuel the rally.

Chances of interest rate hike in near future fade

Initially gold began on a negative note. Gold witnessed a decline in prices till mid-week.
However by the end of the week gold prices picked momentum and closed on a positive note.
GOLD BULLION headed for a second weekly gain versus the falling Dollar Friday morning in London, trading at $1247 per ounce as the US currency held at its weakest in 14 months against the Euro.

The greenback faced a fresh barrage of assaults on the currency markets. June retail sales figures and inflation levels disappointed, and this led to a selloff of USD. Headline inflation plunged more than forecast, and retail sales reversed course.  Hence, sentiment towards the USD declined
Gold and the rest of the precious metals were up by an average of 0.3% during trading hours on Friday July 21, with spot gold prices at $1,246.44 per oz, a weaker dollar and continued choppy political waters in Washington providing support.

By Monday, 17 July, the greenback was trading near 10-month lows. Further, news reports of improved economic performance in China sent investors scampering away from the USD towards other assets. Safe-haven assets such as gold, silver, platinum, and the JPY and emerging market currencies gained favour as the USD retreated.

Gold’s rebound found new drive on the combination of the weaker dollar, which we think stems from the weak political scene in Washington and from the less hawkish US Federal Reserve stance.

A weakening dollar along with hawkish Fed comments strengthens gold prices as gold is generally preferred as a mode of investment in times of uncertainty and global turmoil.

It is clear that the US economy is not performing as expected. This naturally dampens expectations and results in weakness for the USD. When traders get antsy, they rush towards safe-haven assets such as gold bullion, and this is precisely what we are seeing now.”

The dollar index continued to fall, at 94.00 it has set a fresh low, these levels were last seen in June 2016. A negative impact on the USD is good for gold. Since bullion is a dollar-denominated asset, demand moves in the opposite direction to the strength of the USD. With weakening sentiment about the USD, foreign buyers of gold purchase more per unit of their currency. Plus, the perceived weakness of the USD drives traders to gold bullion.

With softness in inflation figures, members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are reluctant to move forward with additional interest rate hikes. It is more likely that the Fed will opt for an unwinding of its $4.5 trillion balance sheet than more rate hikes this year.

If data continues to be negative and if the third-longest [economic growth] cycle in US history cannot produce a cyclical uplift in wages and prices then gold prices are expected to rise tremendously as any large disappointment in the [global economic] growth story will lead to an increase in gold prices.

The appeal of gold as an insurance asset is greater today than it was at the beginning of the year. It suggests to us that gold continues to be viewed as a [portfolio] diversifies and this should help keep the market supported overall.

The latest economic data releases once again bring the prospect of a Fed rate hike into question. According to the CME Group Fed Watch Tool, there is a 3.1% probability of an interest rate hike on Wednesday, July 26, 2017. For September 20, 2017, the probability of a rate hike is just 8.2%, and for November 1, 2017 the probability of a rate hike is just 11.6%. These economic forecasts are good for gold. Every time the Fed pushes back the prospect of a rate hike, currency traders take a bearish perspective on the greenback which further drives the demand for gold.

Gold Dips expected to remain Supported

Gold and other metals had a firm start for the week which continued over Tuesday. Gold and the other precious metals were firmer on Tuesday morning, with prices up an average of 0.4% while gold prices were up 0.3% at $1,237.35 per oz. This was seen as an after effect of a strong performance on Monday when the complex closed up an average of 0.8%.

Gold was more or less stable on Wednesday as it opened at 1241.75/1242.75 per ounce. Post which it rose to a high of 1243.50/1244.50 before retreating to a low of 1239.00/1240.00 as the dollar pared early losses and the euro fell back from yesterday’s 14-month high.

Gold prices are gaining from the weak dollar prices and lower bond yields which help in reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold thus pushing its prices higher.  Prices have firmed up in recent days, this despite geopolitical concerns being light but the weaker dollar and a less hawkish US Federal Reserve seem to be underpinning price rises.

But at the same time, buoyant equities are also a headwind for gold and the lull in geopolitical tensions is not getting any good for gold. So the expectations of a steep rise in gold prices aren’t strong currently.

All in all, we are not expecting much from the precious metals camp in the short term, but we expect dips to remain supported.

Gold being pulled between uncertainities and rate hike

Gold is often used as a hedge against political and financial uncertainty and security risks. And that’s exactly what’s happening with gold currently.

Gold hit a five-month high on Friday after U.S. jobs data dampened expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, but the metal gave up most gains as the dollar rose and safe haven demand ebbed.

Spot gold rose 1.2 percent to $1,265.95 an ounce by during trading hours on Friday, after touching its highest since Nov. 10 at $1,270.46,putting it on track for a fourth consecutive week of gains. U.S. gold futures climbed 1.1 percent to $1,267.60 an ounce. This is the most supportive environment we have seen for gold in some time given that there is geopolitical tension and disappointing U.S. payrolls number.

Data released showed that U.S. employers added the fewest number of workers in 10 months in March, boosting gold, which is most attractive to investors in a low interest rate environment.
Gold was also underpinned by investors looking for safety after the United States fired cruise missiles at a Syrian air base, escalating tensions with Russia and Iran.

Russia, a staunch ally of Syria, said relations between Washington and Moscow had been seriously damaged by the strike, which was in retaliation for a deadly chemical attack on a rebel-held area of Syria.

The precious metal hit a 5-month high as investors sought safe-haven assets after the United States launched cruise missiles against a Syrian air base, potentially escalating tensions with Syrian allies Russia and Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump unleashed the military strikes in response to a deadly chemical attack on a rebel-held area, a U.S. official said on Thursday.

Later in the session, however, safe haven demand faded and the dollar index. DXY climbed to three-week highs which further rose questions that unless the geopolitical risk continues; will the sentiment remain positive for gold?

Investors were cautious ahead of the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, but Trump said on Friday he had made progress in talks and expected them to overcome many problems. Investors had already been on edge as Trump met Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Thursday for talks over flash points such as North Korea and China's huge trade surplus with the United States.      

Gold is often used as a hedge against political and financial uncertainty and security risks. It has benefited alongside other assets considered safe, such as the yen and U.S. Treasury bonds.
Though geo political uncertainties are creating room for gold to rise, we shouldn’t ignore the key influential factor for gold i.e. U.S. interest rate hike.

Increases in U.S. interest rates will prove too much of a headwind for gold prices. As such, we think that the price of gold is likely to fall from about $1,265 today to $1,050 by the end of the year if there is any news coming in from the Fed regarding hike in interest rates.

Clearly this raises the stakes and we expect to see gold prices continuing to push higher in the short-term, at least until there is some clarity around whether this is a one-off or develops into something more.

The sentiments for Gold are bullish

Gold prices have fallen 5.3% from the end of February high and they have almost given back 50% of the December to February gains

Gold prices slipped towards week low on Thursday as investors awaited the employment report due on Friday, a factor that would unofficially strengthen the interest rate hike in the FOMC meet next week.

Gold’s latest pull down followed the release of better-than-expected US private jobs data midweek, boosting the dollar ahead of the release of official monthly payrolls figures on Friday.

• Private employment, which excludes government agencies, rose by 227,000 after a 221,000 increase the prior month. It was the biggest gain since July. Construction jobs, which can fluctuate depending on the weather, rose by 58,000, the strongest in almost a decade, and followed a 40,000 increase in January. Manufacturing payrolls gained 28,000, matching the most since August 2013. Meanwhile, retail positions fell by 26,000, the most in four years.

• The ECB held its benchmark refinancing rate at 0% and left the pace of its bond purchases unchanged on March 9th, as widely expected. Both the deposit rate and the lending rate were also left steady at 0.4% and 0.25%, respectively.

• The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits went up by 20000 to 243000 in the week ended March 4th 2017, slightly above expectations of 235000.

• 2008 Nonfarm business sector labor productivity in the United States increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.3 percent during the fourth quarter of 2016, following a downwardly revised 3.3 percent rise in the previous period and below market expectations of a 1.5 percent gain.

While unseasonably warm weather may have boosted the payrolls count, the data represent President Donald Trump’s first full month in office and overlap with a surge in economic buoyancy following his election victory. The figures also corroborate recent comments by Federal Reserve officials that flagged a likely interest-rate increase this month.

Bullion’s being pulled back down toward $1,200 an ounce in the worst losing run since October as positive US economic data underpinned expectations that interest rates could probably be raised several times this year, starting with a hike next week.

After raising rates just a single time in 2015 and also in 2016, the pace may quicken this year. The so-called dot plot from Fed policy makers shows an expectation for three increases this year, and last Friday, Yellen dropped hints the bank might end up having to hike them more than planned in 2017.

After Wednesday’s upbeat private payrolls data, markets were pointing towards more than 90 % chances of rate hike in March meeting; gold prices are likely to face the weakness amidst the strength in the dollar. Separately, the weaker CPI released from China is also likely to put pressure on gold, given the fact that gold is considered as a hedge against inflation.

Gold prices slipped on Friday, building on a loss for the week as better-than-expected U.S. employment data backs the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will decide to boost interest rates at its meeting next week.

Higher interest rates lift the appeal of holding dollars. That also means that a stronger dollar cuts the worth of holding non-yielding gold that’s priced in this denomination.

We see this sell-off as tied into the increased chance of a US rate rise next week. Looking further out, sentiments for the yellow metal are bullish.

GOLD STABILISES AMIDST UNCERTAINTIES

While when gold was just about to continue to maintain its 3 month high last week, there was a sudden pull back and gold prices moved lower by the end of the week.

Gold steadied on Friday, but remained below the week's three-month top as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields came off their highs after the currency initially jumped on U.S. President Donald Trump's promise of a major tax announcement.

Gold was being pushed and pulled amidst various factors that played key roles in influencing gold prices-

Interest Rate - Gold slid on Thursday from a three-month high in the previous session after strong U.S. economic data pointed to a robust economy, increasing the possibility that the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates.
U.S. economic data has also strengthened talk that the Federal Reserve would press ahead with U.S. interest rate hikes sooner rather than later.
Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates which increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion while boosting the dollar  in which it is priced.

Dollar and Data - U.S. economic data also underpinned the dollar. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped last week to a nearly 43-year low, while inventories at wholesalers surged in December for a second straight month. U.S. import prices rose more than expected in January.
The data showing rising U.S. wholesale inventories and an unexpectedly low number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits further pushed up the dollar and U.S. bond yields.                        
A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, while higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Higher interest rates would lift yields further.
           
Tax Announcement - Donald Trump plans to announce the most ambitious tax reform plan since the Reagan era in the next few weeks, the White House said.
On Thursday, sending stock prices and the dollar higher on hopes leading to a cut in corporate tax rates.

French Elections - Investors are concerned about the strong showing in the French presidential race of far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, who has promised to take France out of the euro zone and to hold a referendum on European Union membership.

Gold held near 3-month highs on Thursday as political risks from elections in Europe and worries over U.S. President Donald Trump's policies buoyed safe haven demand for the bullion.

While gold was stabilised by Friday. It was still amongst the favourites for investors. Many of them are being bullish for gold – Reasons being :

• Controversy over U.S. President Donald Trump's temporary travel ban on people from seven Muslim-majority countries has recently boosted gold as a safe-haven asset.
• Further geo-political uncertainties, increasing hostilities in the Ukraine, Greek bailouts, French elections, Iran-U.S. sabre-rattling have supported gold prices and drawn interest from investors who seek support in safe haven assets.
• Investors' bullish stance on gold is reinforced by an increase in net longs by speculators and a rise in holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund. (SPDR holdings rose 0.68 percent to 832.58 tonnes on Wednesday from Tuesday, rising for a sixth straight session.)

Increasing uncertainties has increased the demand for gold as a hedge. Amidst all this, gold prices are expected to rise till Mid Feb. Once January CPI data is released, it will give an idea about the possibility of a rate hike in March which will then be a deciding factor in the movement of gold prices.

Push vs Pull for GOLD

Last week, gold clocked its largest weekly gain in some seven months. The move came higher as investors flocked to gold, which is often viewed as a safe-haven investment in times of uncertainty.
Last Thursday, markets kept a close watch in the Jobs report that was due on Friday. Apart from the Job report there were many other highlighted events in the week-

Jobs Data- U.S. job growth surged more than expected in January as construction firms and retailers ramped up hiring, but wages barely rose, handing the administration under President Donald Trump, both a head start and a challenge as it seeks to boost the economy.

This report pushed gold prices higher and the sentiments have been continued for this week too.
The gold price climbed on Monday to its highest in nearly three months with investor interest in bullion improving thanks to a subdued dollar and political worries about the US and Europe.
Spot gold was up 0.6% at $1,226.91 during trading hours, having earlier touched $1,230.14, a level last reached on November 17.

Political Uncertainty- Majorly, the current uncertainty prevailing in the US is being driven further by President Donald Trump’s policies, the most controversial of which is a temporary ban on immigrants from seven Muslim countries.

Moreover, Data on Friday showed U.S. wage growth slowed, reducing the odds of Federal Reserve rate increases this year and sending bullion to the biggest weekly gain since June. Uncertainty about Trump’s fiscal-stimulus policies and his administration’s spats with traditional allies helped push hedge funds’ bullish bets on gold to the most in almost two months.

Dollar - The dollar’s value against a basket of currencies has fallen nearly 4% since January 3. That was partly on expectations that the US central bank will wait to see what happens on the political and economic fronts after Friday’s monthly jobs report showed that wages barely rose. "Gold’s solid showing so far this year ... is mostly attributable to a weaker dollar and last week’s standoffish Federal Reserve statement with regard to when it would next move on rates. Trump has also criticized the strength of the dollar, which has pushed the greenback lower. A weaker dollar is good for gold as gold is denominated in U.S. dollars.

French politics - Elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany this year are also adding to jitters. Apart from the Trump presidency euphoria, investors are also watching French politics, where conservative presidential candidate Francois Fillon on Monday vowed to fight on for the presidency despite a damaging scandal involving taxpayer-funded payments to his wife for work which a newspaper alleges she did not do. French pollster Opinion way published a survey on Monday that showed independent Emannual Macron resoundingly winning a presidential election runoff against far-right leader Marine LePen.

Interest rate hike - The Fed raised rates for only the second time since the financial crisis in December and most Fed policymakers agree with Harker that three more rate hikes this year would be appropriate. Wall Street banks and interest-rate futures traders are betting the Fed will only lift borrowing costs twice this year, starting in June.

Currently there is basket of positive and negative factors that might respectively push or pull gold prices further. Of course the positive factors for gold could indeed be overturned by a significant improvement In US employment statistics, or advances in GDP, thus strengthening the Fed’s hand, but if the dollar continues to fall (President Trump appears to think it is too high) and real interest rates remain negative, gold could yet have a good way to run this year, particularly given the global geopolitical uncertainties noted above.

Gold appeal Fading

Gold hitting newer and newer lows have been a current trend confirming a bearish view on the metal’s safe haven appeal. Reasons begin with:

1. Death of uncertainties and acceptance of the same as a new norm.
2. Central banks of the world getting their ticks right to push the economic growth via fiscal and monetary measures.
3. Physical buying cushion; getting softer.
4. Massive reduction in geopolitical tensions with UN forces keeping a check on the extremists.

The upcoming FED meeting will give a glimpse to the US economy getting strengthened. Almost a 100% prediction for a Rate cut in this meeting has put a downward pressure on Gold. Over the course of 2017, there is an expectation that interest rates would be raised by the US Federal Reserve.
Meanwhile, US Dollar has gained a lot of attention due to a rise in US treasury yields and US equity markets causing a downward spiral in Gold prices.

Furthermore, if the recent election outcomes and market reactions to them have taught us anything, it’s that nothing is certain in politics, the global economy and the markets. While I say this, I do understand that the investors have used recent Gold rallies to unwind existing long positions and this is treated unhealthy for an asset’s performance.

While domestic prices would be supported by the Rupee weakness, overall Gold in Dollar terms would trader in the range of US$ 1,080 to US$ 1,200, while Silver would trade in the range of US$ 14.70 to US$ 18.20. In Rupee terms a range of INR 28,200 to INR 29,700 is expected for Gold while INR 39,000 to INR 44,000 is expected for Silver.

BULLION MARKET HIGHLIGHTS- DECEMBER 2015- AUGUST 2016: RSBL

 By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL

AS 2015 came to a close, most traders expected that 2016 would be a year subjugated by a series of Fed rate hikes.

 

That belief strengthened in late-December 2015 after the Fed delivered on its promise – and raised interest rates for the first time in almost a decade.

 

In a widely telegraphed publication called the "Dots Plot", the Fed signalled that it would continue to normalize its monetary policy, and raise interest rates by a total of +1% through 2016 to a target of 1.375%, a "gradual" pace and in line with earlier forecasts.

Though gold was expected to be bearish on 2016, it showed upward prices movements and The World Gold Council attributed this rally to three principal factors:

• the widening landscape of negative interest rates in Japan and Europe;
• the devaluation of China's Yuan; and
• The realization that the Fed was bluffing on hiking the Fed funds rate, and wouldn't dare take any action that could knock the stock market lower ahead of the upcoming November elections in the US for Congress and the Presidency. 

While we are a few months away from the year end I would like to throw light on a few key highlights that influenced the bullion markets worldwide.

Fed Hike- on 4 January 2016, San Francisco Fed chief John Williams said he saw a steady campaign of interest rate rises. "There are still pretty significant headwinds" facing the US economy from weak overseas economies, the strong Dollar and housing related issues, Mr.Williams told reporters.

 

 

On 6 January, Fed deputy Stanley Fischer warned the markets could expect three to four increases in the Fed funds rate this year. Speaking on CNBC television Fischer warned:

"If asset prices across the economy – that is, taking all financial markets into account – are thought to be extremely high, raising the interest rate may be the suitable step."

Based on expectations of 4-Fed rate hikes to 1.375% by year's end, gold initially declined in the month of December to a six year low at $1054 per ounce. Most analysts expected the downfall to continue through 2016, but they were proved wrong.

 The price of gold suddenly surged 16% higher in the first quarter alone. Giving gold one of its strongest quarterly performance in nearly three decades.

SPDR- The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca:GLD), surged in its holdings to the most in six years, jumping to 983 tonnes, and global gold holdings in ETFs topped 2,000 metric tonnes for the first time since June 2013 following the Brexit fallout, when gold buying sparked even more gold buying.

 

BOE-  On June 30th, Bank of England chief Mark Carney said the economic risks from Brexit had started to crystallize, and he hinted at a resumption of QE, lifting gold to its biggest one-day surge in years after Britons shocked markets by voting to leave the European Union, driving investors toward safe-haven assets such as bullion.  Gold soared as much as 8 percent to its highest in more than two years in the week ending 28^th June, 2016 after the UK referendum results, sending investors rushing for protection. Gold prices surged to its highest level in more than two years, at $1,359 since March 17, 2014, sending shock waves across markets.

BOS- by June 2016, all of Switzerland's government debt, including its 30-year bonds, started trading at negative yields.

 

In all, a record US$11.7 trillion of global sovereign debt has dipped to sub-zero yield territory. This has only strengthened the rally in gold, and about $13-14 billion of money has made its way into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as asset managers moved from fixed income into gold earlier this year.

 

Gold climbed to a two-year high at $1371 per ounce in July, convincing UBS Group to predict that gold is probably at the beginning of its next bull run

BOJ- gold's spectacular rally found a stiff roadblock at the $1370 per ounce area when Japanese government bonds suddenly began to fall sharply into their worst sell-off in 13 years. On August 2nd the Bank of Japan shocked the markets and rattled gold traders by keeping its bond purchases steady, defying expectations it would buy even more.

 

 

Gold traders became even more nervous after the BoJ said it would re-evaluate its Negative Interest Rate and QQE policies in September. Some investors see the policy review as a tacit admission by the central bank that after more than three years of massive money printing, the BoJ could be ready to start tapering the pace of the QQE liquidity injections.

 

   

Since the $10.4 trillion bond market in Tokyo is at the core of the negative interest rate world, if the BoJ begins to allow Japanese bond yields to climb by tapering its QE scheme, it could continue to rattle the price of gold – at least on a short-term basis.

BoJ policy makers ordered staff to make a "comprehensive assessment" on the impact of its easing program and negative interest-rate policy ahead of the next policy-setting meeting on 20-21 September. Some traders suspect the review is aimed specifically at assessing the effectiveness of negative rates, potentially giving policy makers scope to declare the exercise unsuccessful.

So for the month to come, BoJ will surely have something crucial for gold in store.

The primary purpose of this article by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

Previous blog:

"Higher Gold Prices For The Domestic Market: RSBL"

http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2016/08/higher-gold-prices-for-domestic-market.html

HIGHER GOLD PRICES FOR THE DOMESTIC MARKET: RSBL

  By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL

Firstly I would like to congratulate all the Rio Olympic representatives of India who worked so hard and attained commendable feats for our country. While we saw Indian achieving remarkable feats, at the same time gold prices in the domestic market were shining in spite of a global downtrend.

Where on one hand gold in the global markets was down 0.34 percent at $1,347 per ounce, on the other hand the yellow metal in the national capital, gold of 99.9 and 99.5 per cent purity commenced the week higher at Rs. 31,130 and Rs. 30,980 and advanced to closed at Rs. 31,250 and Rs. 31,100 per 10 gram respectively, showing a rise of Rs. 175 each.

Markets remained closed on Monday for 'Independence Day' and Thursday for 'Raksha Bandhan'. Bullion traders said increased buying by jewellers to meet festive season demand from retailers amid a firm global trend mainly kept precious metal prices higher.
While Makar Sankrant marks a pause to festive celebrations, on the other hand Raksha Bandhan marks the onset of the festive season in India. 

Gold has seen a sharp upsurge in demand on a sudden jump in Japanese yen against the dollar. Crude oil prices have also increased over the last few months. With the investment buying continues, gold is seen touching $1400 an oz in global markets translating thereby setting a new record in near future.

Coming to international markets, analysts hold the dovish July policy meeting minutes issued this week responsible for the decline in prices.

Interest rate expectations are the driving force behind the recent moves in both the dollar and gold. Expectations of higher interest rates here in the U.S. support a stronger dollar while they weigh on the price of precious metals.

Interest Rate Hike- Gold prices slipped on Friday, weighed down by a strengthening dollar after two Federal Reserve officials' comments that increased expectations for an interest-rate increase this year.


Gold is sensitive to higher rates which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar in which it is priced. The week has seen a run of mixed signals from Federal Reserve policymakers.


San Francisco Fed President John Williams on Thursday joined a growing chorus of his colleagues signalling support for a U.S. interest rate hike in coming months. New York Fed President William Dudley reinforced his confidence in a possible rate hike for a second time in the week.  Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, however, saw limited room to manoeuvre on rates.

US Dollar- The dollar against a basket of six major currencies was up about 0.27 percent at 94.414. The current ‘ultra low’ interest rate environment has sent global investors on a search for yield.  Hence any prospect of an interest-rate increase in the U.S. makes U.S. dollar investments more attractive to international investors, leading to an increase in the value of the U.S. dollar vs. other currencies across the globe.
The U.S. dollar, after tapping a seven-week low this week, strengthened Friday, cutting demand for precious metals, which are priced in the currency.

SDPR- Among exchange-traded funds, the SPDR Gold Trust GLD, -0.88% was 0.7% lower. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.2% to 955.99 metric tons in the week through Thursday, according to Bloomberg data.
ECB- Meanwhile, European Central Bank rate setters agreed not to discuss any policy change at their July meeting and to keep market hopes for more stimuli in check, minutes showed on Thursday.

U.S. Jobs report- Reports showed the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, while manufacturing activity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region saw a mild improvement this month. Members of the Fed's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee were generally upbeat about the U.S. economy and labour market, but several said any slowdown in future hiring would augur against a near-term rate hike. U.S. economic data will continue to offer clues on the Fed’s next move. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will also speak at a conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo. next Friday. Admittedly, a very strong U.S. labour market report in early September could already be enough to prompt the Fed to hike interest rates next month.

Still range bound, gold looks to break through USD $1,360 as the possibility of a September rate rise tempers.

The primary purpose of this article by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

Previous blog:

"Indian Gold Bullion Market- Issues, Challenges, Opportunities and the way forward: RSBL"
http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2016/08/indian-gold-bullion-market-issues_13.html 

Consolidation phase for Gold and Silver Prices: RSBL

                                                                           - Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD RSBL

BREXIT, FED, Dollar and many other key influential factors have proved to be beneficial for Gold and Silver prices in 2016. Last week too we saw many such factors influencing bullion prices but in the downward side. Let’s take a close look on the key highlights:

• The S&P (US Stock exchange) posted a fresh all-time closing high and the major U.S. stock averages 2,163.24 locked in a fourth successive winning week following the Brexit vote.
• At the weekends G20 summit in China, the world's biggest economies noted they will work to support global growth and share the benefits of trade, in a meeting dominated by the impact of Britain's exit from Europe and fears of rising protectionism. Philip Hammond, Britain's new finance minister, said the uncertainty about Brexit would begin to abate once Britain laid out a vision for a future relationship with Europe, which could become clearer later this year.
• On Thursday, 21^st July , in Frankfurt, the European Central Bank (ECB) and President Mario Draghi decided to leave rates unchanged after the Brexit-induced market shockwaves have faded somewhat. Draghi and his fellow central bankers gave no indication that the current 1.7 trillion-euro quantitative-easing plan needed to be increased following the UK vote to leave the single market. The council doesn’t meet again till September, but investors aren’t anticipating any adjustment to the bond-buying programme in the near-term thus leaving the door open to more policy stimulus, highlighting "great" uncertainty and abundant risks to the economic outlook.

Though bullion has benefited from the loose policy decisions coming in from central banks of Europe and Japan, but on the other side the dollar has gained on strong U.S. data, boosting bets the Fed will raise U.S. rates by year-end.

Globally, gold nearly fell to $1,312 and silver to USD 19.46. Traders attributed the fall in gold prices to a weak global trend where the precious metal headed for its first back-to-back weekly decline since May as gains in equities and the dollar ate into demand for the metal as a storage value. Few other important indicators that contributed to the downfall:

• Data released from the U.S. showed that U.S home resale’s hit their highest in nearly 9 and a half years in June as low interest rates lured first-time buyers into the market and the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week, underscoring the economy's strength.     
• Adding to the down trend in prices were the figures released by SPDR. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.22 percent to 963.14 tonnes on Thursday.

I do feel that the Price action will likely be skewed to the downside and expect to test the post-Brexit low around USD $1,305 and below this USD $1,300 should global equities continue their upward trajectory.

The Jackson Hole Symposium Aug. 25-27, where Yellen is scheduled to speak is where we will most likely get more relevant information about coming Fed policy and the next direction.

Thank You!

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The primary purpose of this article by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.

Previous blog:

Gold prices to go up: RSBL - http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2016/07/gold-prices-to-go-up-rsbl.html

Photo courtesy: Google

BEST PERFORMING MONTH FOR GOLD SINCE JAN 2015: RSBL

By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL

Recent years have seen countless claims that gold and silver prices have to head far lower, implying demand is low or supply is high.  But the actual data continues to prove this false, showing precious-metals bearishness is rooted in sentiment and not fundamentals.

Currently market sentiments for the yellow metal are bullions over the month for January as the global equities routs and a growth discomfort spurred gold prices nearly five percent – the biggest monthly gain in a year.

Gold prices headed for their best monthly rise in a year on Friday, slipping back to $1110 per ounce as world stock markets gained, but trading 4.6% higher from the start of 2016. This was gold's best monthly gain in Dollar terms since January 2015.

This year where on one side we saw the global equity markets began with a major sell off the yellow metal has given its best signal months performance since January 2015- as it rose 4.9per cent this month. Gold had hit a 12-week high of $1,128.20 during US trading on Wednesday and has since eased on profit-taking.

The gold price inched higher during Asian trading hours on Thursday supported by market uncertainties, as well as expectations of slower future Fed rate hikes.

Gold edged higher on Friday after U.S. data showed economic growth decelerated sharply in the fourth quarter and the price of the precious metal was on track for its biggest monthly rise in a year after global economic headwinds hit riskier assets.


Data released was as follows:

• Fourth quarter advance GDP came in at 0.7 percent, missing the forecast of 0.8 percent. GDP Price Index stood at 0.8 percent versus the estimate of 1.2 percent.
• Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment was at 92.0, below the projection of 93.1, while inflation expectations rose 2.5 percent.
• Employment Cost Index was in-line with projections at a 0.6 percent gain, while the Goods Trade Balance was at -61.5 billion, in range of the economic consensus of -60.0 billion.
• Core durable goods in December at -1.2 percent missed the estimate of -0.1 percent durable goods orders at -5.1 percent was sharply below the forecast -0.6 percent.
• US weekly unemployment claims at 278,000 were better than the forecast 281,000 and below the psychological 300,000 mark.

The gold rally is now battling a physical demand concern as Indian trade has lost pace and Chinese investors prepare for the aforementioned Chinese Lunar celebration.

This will further constrain the gains for gold as physical demand is likely to weaken.

While sentiment is improving across commodities the major concern now is where golf will re-bound of it will be carried along if long-term investors get favorable towards commodities.

Gold reached a 12-week high of $1,127.80 on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve said it was closely watching the global economy and financial markets. This supported the view that U.S. policymakers may not be able to raise interest rates again as soon as March.

Currently the major deciding factor is the US tightening policy. Market players believe that even one further lifting of the fed funds target this year will come with great difficulty, and that the Fed’s own projected pace of four hikes this year is a near impossibility.

Maybe things won't be this bad next month in the wider markets, so it is possible that if ETF flows are subsiding, prices will be lower too.

But one positive lesson we can learn from this month is that gold does still have a safe-haven role and that could stand it in good stead through a testing year to come.


- Previous blog - "Markets remain calm as we enter 2016:RSBL"
http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/2016/01/markets-remain-calm-as-we-enter-2016.html